Alessandra Giannini

Interannual Variability of Caribbean Rainfall, ENSO, and the Atlantic Ocean*

Abstract The large-scale ocean–atmosphere patterns that influence the interannual variability of Caribbean–Central American rainfall are examined. The atmospheric circulation over this region is shaped by the competition between the North Atlantic subtropical high sea level pressure system and the eastern Pacific ITCZ, which influence the convergence patterns on seasonal and interannual timescales. The authors find the leading modes of interannual sea level pressure (SLP) and SST variability associated with Caribbean rainfall, as selected by canonical correlation analysis, to be an interbasin mode, linking the eastern Pacific with the tropical Atlantic, and an Atlantic mode. North Atlantic SLP affects Caribbean rainfall directly, by changing the patterns of surface flow over the region, and indirectly, through SST anomalies. Anomalously high SLP in the region of the North Atlantic high translates into stronger trade winds, hence cooler SSTs, and less Caribbean rainfall. The interbasin mode, which manifest...

The ENSO Teleconnection to the Tropical Atlantic Ocean: Contributions of the Remote and Local SSTs to Rainfall Variability in the Tropical Americas*

Recent developments in Tropical Atlantic Variability (TAV) identify the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) as one of the leading factors in the interannual climate variability of the basin. An ENSO event results in Tropic- wide anomalies in the atmospheric circulation that have a direct effect on precipitation variability, as well as an indirect effect, that is, one mediated by sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies generated in the remote ocean basins. In order to separate the relative contributions of the atmospheric and oceanic components of the ENSO teleconnection to the tropical Atlantic Ocean, results from two ensembles of atmospheric general cir- culation model (AGCM) experiments, differing in oceanic boundary conditions, are compared. AGCM integra- tions performed with the Community Climate Model version 3 (CCM3), forced by global, observed SST during 1950-94 reproduce the observed ENSO-related rainfall anomalies over the tropical Americas and adjacent Atlantic. A parallel ensemble of integrations, forced with observed SST in the tropical Atlantic only, and climatology elsewhere, is used to separate the effect of the direct atmospheric teleconnection from the atmo- spheres response to the ENSO-forced SST anomalies in the Atlantic basin. It is found that ENSO-related atmospheric and oceanic anomalies force rainfall anomalies of the same sign in northeast Brazil, of opposite sign in the Caribbean basin. The direct atmospheric influence of a warm ENSO event reduces model rainfall as a whole over the tropical Atlantic basin. This observation is consistent with the hypothesis that an ENSO-related Tropic-wide warming of the free troposphere forces the vertical stabilization of the tropical atmosphere. ENSO-related atmospheric anomalies are also known to force a delayed (relative to the mature phase of ENSO) warming of tropical North Atlantic SST through the weakening of the northeasterly trade winds and consequent reduction of surface fluxes. It is found that this delayed oceanic component forces a northward displacement of the Atlantic intertropical convergence zone, resulting in increased precipitation over the Caribbean and reduced precipitation over northeast Brazil during the boreal spring following the mature phase of ENSO.

Deconstructing Atlantic Intertropical Convergence zone variability: Influence of the local cross-equatorial sea surface temperature gradient and remote forcing from the eastern equatorial Pacific

(1) We investigate causes of interannual variability in Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) convection using a monthly mean global precipitation data set spanning 1979-1999. Starting from the hypothesis of two dominant influences on the ITCZ, namely, the cross-equatorial gradient in tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) and the anomalous Walker circulation due to the rearrangement of tropical Pacific convection associated with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, we analyze anomaly composites over the 1979-1999 period that best isolate the effects of each mechanism. Our results suggest that to first order, a strong anomalous Walker circulation suppresses precipitation over the tropical Atlantic, whereas an anomalous warm north/cool south SST gradient shifts the meridional location of maximum ITCZ convection anomalously north. We examined the processes underlying each of the two mechanisms. For the anomalous Walker circulation we find consistency with the idea of suppression of convection through warming of the tropical troposphere brought about by anomalous convective heating in the eastern equatorial Pacific. For the SST gradient mechanism our results confirm previous studies that link convection to cross-equatorial winds forced by meridional SST gradients. We find that positive surface flux feedback brought about through the cross-equatorial winds is weak and confined to the deep tropics. On the basis of the results of this and other studies we propose an expanded physical picture that explains key features of Atlantic ITCZ variability, including its seasonal preference, its sensitivity to small anomalous SST gradients, and its role in the context of tropical Atlantic SST gradient variability. INDEX TERMS: 4215 Oceanography: General: Climate and interannual variability (3309), 3339 Meteorology and Atmospheric Dynamics: Ocean/atmosphere interactions (0312, 4504), 3354 Meteorology and Atmospheric Dynamics: Precipitation (1854), 3374 Meteorology and Atmospheric Dynamics: Tropical meteorology, 4522 Oceanography: Physical: Ocean Optics; KEYWORDS: Tropical Atlantic, precipitation, climate variability, El Nino-Southern Oscillation, Ocean-atmosphere interaction

Interdecadal Changes in the ENSO Teleconnection to the Caribbean Region and the North Atlantic Oscillation

Abstract The El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and variability in the subtropical North Atlantic high sea level pressure (SLP) are known to affect rainfall in the Caribbean region. An El Nino event is associated with drier-than-average conditions during the boreal summer of year (0), and wetter-than-average conditions during the spring of year (+1). Dry conditions during the summer of year (0) of an El Nino are associated with the locally divergent surface circulation engendered by the eastward shift of deep convection in the Pacific Ocean. Wet conditions during the spring of year (+1) of an El Nino are associated with the lagged warming of the tropical North Atlantic Ocean. Variability in the strength of the North Atlantic high is governed mainly by the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) with a positive NAO phase implying a stronger than normal high and vice versa. The NAO is negatively correlated with Caribbean rainfall indirectly via anomalous sea surface temperatures (SST) associated with a...

SST Forcings and Sahel Rainfall Variability in Simulations of the Twentieth and Twenty-First Centuries

The outlook for Sahel precipitation in coupled simulations of the twenty-first century is very uncertain, with different models disagreeing even on the sign of the trends. Such disagreement is especially surprising in light of the robust response of the same coupled models to the twentieth-century forcings. This study presents a statistical analysis of the preindustrial, twentieth-century and twenty-first-century A1B scenario simulations in the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 3 (CMIP3) dataset; it shows that the relationship that links Sahel rainfall anomalies to tropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies at interannual time scales in observations is reproduced by most models, independently of the change in the basic state as the world warms. The same SST‐Sahel relationship can be used to predict the simulated twentieth-century changes in Sahel rainfall from each model’s simulation of changes in Indo-Pacific SST and Atlantic SST meridional gradient, although the prediction overestimates the simulated trends. Conversely, such a relationship does not explain the rainfall trend in the twenty-first century in a majority of models. These results are consistent with there being, in most models, a substantial direct positive effect of atmospheric greenhouse gases on Sahel rainfall, not mediated through SST.

A unifying view of climate change in the Sahel linking intra-seasonal, interannual and longer time scales

We propose a re-interpretation of the oceanic influence on the climate of the African Sahel that is consistent across observations, 20th century simulations and 21st century projections, and that resolves the uncertainty in projections of precipitation change in this region: continued warming of the global tropical oceans increases the threshold for convection, potentially drying tropical land, but this ‘upped ante’ can be met if sufficient moisture is supplied in monsoon flow. In this framework, the reversal to warming of the subtropical North Atlantic, which is now out-pacing warming of the global tropical oceans, provides that moisture, and explains the partial recovery in precipitation since persistent drought in the 1970s and 1980s. We find this recovery to result from increases in daily rainfall intensity, rather than in frequency, most evidently so in Senegal, the westernmost among the three Sahelian countries analyzed. Continuation of these observed trends is consistent with projections for an overall wetter Sahel, but more variable precipitation on all time scales, from intra-seasonal to multi-decadal.

CMIP5 Projected Changes in the Annual Cycle of Precipitation in Monsoon Regions

AbstractAnalyses of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) experiments show that the global monsoon is expected to increase in area, precipitation, and intensity as the climate system responds to anthropogenic forcing. Concurrently, detailed analyses for several individual monsoons indicate a redistribution of rainfall from early to late in the rainy season. This analysis examines CMIP5 projected changes in the annual cycle of precipitation in monsoon regions, using a moist static energy framework to evaluate competing mechanisms identified to be important in precipitation changes over land. In the presence of sufficient surface moisture, the local response to the increase in downwelling energy is characterized by increased evaporation, increased low-level moist static energy, and decreased stability with consequent increases in precipitation. A remote mechanism begins with warmer oceans and operates on land regions via a warmer tropical troposphere, increased stability, and decrease...

Mechanisms of climate change in the semiarid African Sahel: the local view.

Abstract Application of the moist static energy framework to analyses of vertical stability and net energy in the Sahel sheds light on the divergence of projections of climate change. Two distinct mechanisms are sketched. In one, anthropogenic warming changes continental climate indirectly: warming of the oceans increases moist static energy at upper levels, affecting vertical stability globally, from the top down, and driving drying over the Sahel, in a way analogous to the impact of El Nino–Southern Oscillation on the global tropical atmosphere. In the other, the increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gases drives a direct continental change: the increase in net terrestrial radiation at the surface increases evaporation, favoring vertical instability and near-surface convergence from the bottom up. In both cases the surface warms, but in the first precipitation and evaporation decrease, while in the second they increase. In the first case, land surface warming is brought about by the remotely forced decre...

The desert locust upsurge in West Africa (2003 – 2005): Information on the desert locust early warning system and the prospects for seasonal climate forecasting

Abstract During 2003 and 2004 several African countries were affected by swarms of desert locust in what was the worst locust crisis in the region since 1987 – 89. Early warning systems developed by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) were in place and alerted the international donor community of the danger of a desert locust invasion from the onset of the outbreak. International response to the crisis was, however, slow, and control operations were late to be implemented. Consequently, desert locust populations increased rapidly and swarms invaded eleven countries in West Africa, severely disrupting agricultural production in areas already sensitive to food security. We review the circumstances that led to this situation, and we assess the feasibility of using seasonal rainfall predictions to forecast desert locust risk sooner in order to provide a longer lead-time to affected countries and the donor community. Such an approach would enable the necessary control operations to be financed and undertaken in time.

Seasonality in the impact of ENSO and the north atlantic high on caribbean rainfall

Abstract Caribbean rainfall is affected by climate variability of Pacific and Atlantic origin, e.g. the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, and variability in the North Atlantic High sea level pressure (SLP) center, respectively. During the lifetime of an ENSO cycle, the basin experiences dry and wet extremes. In the case of a warm event, the dry extreme precedes the mature ENSO phase, and can be explained in terms of a direct response to the atmospheric anomaly generated by the warm sea surface temperatures (SST) in the eastern equatorial Pacific. The wet extreme follows the mature phase, and is consistent with the lagged warming effect of ENSO on tropical North Atlantic SSTs. The wintertime state of the North Atlantic High is hypothesized to affect Caribbean rainfall through its effect on tropical SST. A strong North Atlantic High SLP center during the early months of the calendar year strengthens the trade winds, hence cooling SSTs in the tropical latitudes of the North Atlantic. The effect lingers on most noticeably until the start of the Caribbean rainy season, in May–June, when cool SSTs are associated with deficient rainfall in the basin.