Alessandro Cassini

Disability weights for the Global Burden of Disease 2013 study

BACKGROUND The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study assesses health losses from diseases, injuries, and risk factors using disability-adjusted life-years, which need a set of disability weights to quantify health levels associated with non-fatal outcomes. The objective of this study was to estimate disability weights for the GBD 2013 study. METHODS We analysed data from new web-based surveys of participants aged 18-65 years, completed in four European countries (Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, and Sweden) between Sept 23, 2013, and Nov 11, 2013, combined with data previously collected in the GBD 2010 disability weights measurement study. Surveys used paired comparison questions for which respondents considered two hypothetical individuals with different health states and specified which person they deemed healthier than the other. These surveys covered 183 health states pertinent to GBD 2013; of these states, 30 were presented with descriptions revised from previous versions and 18 were new to GBD 2013. We analysed paired comparison data using probit regression analysis and rescaled results to disability weight units between 0 (no loss of health) and 1 (loss equivalent to death). We compared results with previous estimates, and an additional analysis examined sensitivity of paired comparison responses to duration of hypothetical health states. FINDINGS The total analysis sample consisted of 30 230 respondents from the GBD 2010 surveys and 30 660 from the new European surveys. For health states common to GBD 2010 and GBD 2013, results were highly correlated overall (Pearsons r 0·992 [95% uncertainty interval 0·989-0·994]). For health state descriptions that were revised for this study, resulting disability weights were substantially different for a subset of these weights, including those related to hearing loss (eg, complete hearing loss: GBD 2010 0·033 [0·020-0·052]; GBD 2013 0·215 [0·144-0·307]) and treated spinal cord lesions (below the neck: GBD 2010 0·047 [0·028-0·072]; GBD 2013 0·296 [0·198-0·414]; neck level: GBD 2010 0·369 [0·243-0·513]; GBD 2013 0·589 [0·415-0·748]). Survey responses to paired comparison questions were insensitive to whether the comparisons were framed in terms of temporary or chronic outcomes (Pearsons r 0·981 [0·973-0·987]). INTERPRETATION This study substantially expands the empirical basis for assessment of non-fatal outcomes in the GBD study. Findings from this study substantiate the notion that disability weights are sensitive to particular details in descriptions of health states, but robust to duration of outcomes. FUNDING European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

New Methodology for Estimating the Burden of Infectious Diseases in Europe

Mirjam Kretzschmar and colleagues describe the BCoDE project, which uses a pathogen-based incidence approach to better estimate the infectious disease burden in Europe.

The pathogen- and incidence-based DALY approach: An appropriated methodology for estimating the burden of infectious diseases

In 2009, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control initiated the ‘Burden of Communicable Diseases in Europe (BCoDE)’ project to generate evidence-based and comparable burden-of-disease estimates of infectious diseases in Europe. The burden-of-disease metric used was the Disability-Adjusted Life Year (DALY), composed of years of life lost due to premature death (YLL) and due to disability (YLD). To better represent infectious diseases, a pathogen-based approach was used linking incident cases to sequelae through outcome trees. Health outcomes were included if an evidence-based causal relationship between infection and outcome was established. Life expectancy and disability weights were taken from the Global Burden of Disease Study and alternative studies. Disease progression parameters were based on literature. Country-specific incidence was based on surveillance data corrected for underestimation. Non-typhoidal Salmonella spp. and Campylobacter spp. were used for illustration. Using the incidence- and pathogen-based DALY approach the total burden for Salmonella spp. and Campylobacter spp. was estimated at 730 DALYs and at 1,780 DALYs per year in the Netherlands (average of 2005–2007). Sequelae accounted for 56% and 82% of the total burden of Salmonella spp. and Campylobacter spp., respectively. The incidence- and pathogen-based DALY methodology allows in the case of infectious diseases a more comprehensive calculation of the disease burden as subsequent sequelae are fully taken into account. Not considering subsequent sequelae would strongly underestimate the burden of infectious diseases. Estimates can be used to support prioritisation and comparison of infectious diseases and other health conditions, both within a country and between countries.

Burden of Six Healthcare-Associated Infections on European Population Health: Estimating Incidence-Based Disability-Adjusted Life Years through a Population Prevalence-Based Modelling Study

Background Estimating the burden of healthcare-associated infections (HAIs) compared to other communicable diseases is an ongoing challenge given the need for good quality data on the incidence of these infections and the involved comorbidities. Based on the methodology of the Burden of Communicable Diseases in Europe (BCoDE) project and 2011–2012 data from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) point prevalence survey (PPS) of HAIs and antimicrobial use in European acute care hospitals, we estimated the burden of six common HAIs. Methods and Findings The included HAIs were healthcare-associated pneumonia (HAP), healthcare-associated urinary tract infection (HA UTI), surgical site infection (SSI), healthcare-associated Clostridium difficile infection (HA CDI), healthcare-associated neonatal sepsis, and healthcare-associated primary bloodstream infection (HA primary BSI). The burden of these HAIs was measured in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Evidence relating to the disease progression pathway of each type of HAI was collected through systematic literature reviews, in order to estimate the risks attributable to HAIs. For each of the six HAIs, gender and age group prevalence from the ECDC PPS was converted into incidence rates by applying the Rhame and Sudderth formula. We adjusted for reduced life expectancy within the hospital population using three severity groups based on McCabe score data from the ECDC PPS. We estimated that 2,609,911 new cases of HAI occur every year in the European Union and European Economic Area (EU/EEA). The cumulative burden of the six HAIs was estimated at 501 DALYs per 100,000 general population each year in EU/EEA. HAP and HA primary BSI were associated with the highest burden and represented more than 60% of the total burden, with 169 and 145 DALYs per 100,000 total population, respectively. HA UTI, SSI, HA CDI, and HA primary BSI ranked as the third to sixth syndromes in terms of burden of disease. HAP and HA primary BSI were associated with the highest burden because of their high severity. The cumulative burden of the six HAIs was higher than the total burden of all other 32 communicable diseases included in the BCoDE 2009–2013 study. The main limitations of the study are the variability in the parameter estimates, in particular the disease models’ case fatalities, and the use of the Rhame and Sudderth formula for estimating incident number of cases from prevalence data. Conclusions We estimated the EU/EEA burden of HAIs in DALYs in 2011–2012 using a transparent and evidence-based approach that allows for combining estimates of morbidity and of mortality in order to compare with other diseases and to inform a comprehensive ranking suitable for prioritization. Our results highlight the high burden of HAIs and the need for increased efforts for their prevention and control. Furthermore, our model should allow for estimations of the potential benefit of preventive measures on the burden of HAIs in the EU/EEA.

Assessing disability weights based on the responses of 30,660 people from four European countries

BackgroundIn calculations of burden of disease using disability-adjusted life years, disability weights are needed to quantify health losses relating to non-fatal outcomes, expressed as years lived with disability. In 2012 a new set of global disability weights was published for the Global Burden of Disease 2010 (GBD 2010) study. That study suggested that comparative assessments of different health outcomes are broadly similar across settings, but the significance of this conclusion has been debated. The aim of the present study was to estimate disability weights for Europe for a set of 255 health states, including 43 new health states, by replicating the GBD 2010 Disability Weights Measurement study among representative population samples from four European countries.MethodsFor the assessment of disability weights for Europe we applied the GBD 2010 disability weights measurement approach in web-based sample surveys in Hungary, Italy, Netherlands, and Sweden. The survey included paired comparisons (PC) and population health equivalence questions (PHE) formulated as discrete choices. Probit regression analysis was used to estimate cardinal values from PC responses. To locate results onto the 0-to-1 disability weight scale, we assessed the feasibility of using the GBD 2010 scaling approach based on PHE questions, as well as an alternative approach using non-parametric regression.ResultsIn total, 30,660 respondents participated in the survey. Comparison of the probit regression results from the PC responses for each country indicated high linear correlations between countries. The PHE data had high levels of measurement error in these general population samples, which compromises the ability to infer ratio-scaled values from discrete choice responses. Using the non-parametric regression approach as an alternative rescaling procedure, the set of disability weights were bounded by distance vision mild impairment and anemia with the lowest weight (0.004) and severe multiple sclerosis with the highest weight (0.677).ConclusionsPC assessments of health outcomes in this study resulted in estimates that were highly correlated across four European countries. Assessment of the feasibility of rescaling based on a discrete choice formulation of the PHE question indicated that this approach may not be suitable for use in a web-based survey of the general population.

Review of disability weight studies: comparison of methodological choices and values

IntroductionThe disability-adjusted life year (DALY) is widely used to assess the burden of different health problems and risk factors. The disability weight, a value anchored between 0 (perfect health) and 1 (equivalent to death), is necessary to estimate the disability component (years lived with disability, YLDs) of the DALY. After publication of the ground-breaking Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 1996, alternative sets of disability weights have been developed over the past 16 years, each using different approaches with regards to the panel, health state description, and valuation methods. The objective of this study was to review all studies that developed disability weights and to critically assess the methodological design choices (health state and time description, panel composition, and valuation method). Furthermore, disability weights of eight specific conditions were compared.MethodsDisability weights studies (1990-2012) in international peer-reviewed journals and grey literature were identified with main inclusion criteria being that the study assessed DALY disability weights for several conditions or a specific group of illnesses. Studies were collated by design and methods and evaluation of results.ResultsTwenty-two studies met the inclusion criteria of our review. There is considerable variation in methods used to derive disability weights, although most studies used a disease-specific description of the health state, a panel that consisted of medical experts, and nonpreference-based valuation method to assess the values for the majority of the disability weights. Comparisons of disability weights across 15 specific disease and injury groups showed that the subdivision of a disease into separate health states (stages) differed markedly across studies. Additionally, weights for similar health states differed, particularly in the case of mild diseases, for which the disability weight differed by a factor of two or more.ConclusionsIn terms of comparability of the resulting YLDs, the global use of the same set of disability weights has advantages, though practical constraints and intercultural differences should be taken into account into such a set.

The disease burden of hepatitis B, influenza, measles and salmonellosis in Germany: first results of the Burden of Communicable Diseases in Europe Study†

Setting priorities in the field of infectious diseases requires evidence-based and robust baseline estimates of disease burden. Therefore, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control initiated the Burden of Communicable Diseases in Europe (BCoDE) project. The project uses an incidence- and pathogen-based approach to measure the impact of both acute illness and sequelae of infectious diseases expressed in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). This study presents first estimates of disease burden for four pathogens in Germany. The number of reported incident cases adjusted for underestimation served as model input. For the study period 2005-2007, the average disease burden was estimated at 33 116 DALYs/year for influenza virus, 19 115 DALYs/year for Salmonella spp., 8708 DALYs/year for hepatitis B virus and 740 DALYs/year for measles virus. This methodology highlights the importance of sequelae, particularly for hepatitis B and salmonellosis, because if omitted, the burden would have been underestimated by 98% and 56%, respectively.

Neurological sequelae of healthcare-associated sepsis in very-low-birthweight infants: Umbrella review and evidence-based outcome tree

Sepsis is a frequent cause of death in very-low-birthweight infants and often results in neurological impairment. Its attributable risk of sequelae has not been systematically assessed. To establish an outcome tree for mapping the burden of neonatal sepsis, we performed systematic literature searches to identify systematic reviews addressing sequelae of neonatal sepsis. We included cohort studies and performed meta-analyses of attributable risks. Evidence quality was assessed using GRADE. Two systematic reviews met inclusion criteria. The first included nine cohort studies with 5,620 participants and five outcomes (neurodevelopmental impairment, cerebral palsy, vision impairment, hearing impairment, death). Pooled risk differences varied between 4% (95% confidence interval (CI):2-10) and 13% (95% CI:5-20). From the second review we analysed four studies with 472 infants. Positive predictive value of neurodevelopmental impairment for later cognitive impairment ranged between 67% (95% CI:22-96) and 83% (95% CI:36-100). Neonatal sepsis increases risk of permanent neurological impairment. Effect size varies by outcome, with evidence quality being low to very low. Data were used to construct an outcome tree for neonatal sepsis. Attributable risk estimates for sequelae following neonatal sepsis are suitable for burden estimation and may serve as outcome parameters in interventional studies.

Use of DALYs in economic analyses on interventions for infectious diseases: a systematic review

SUMMARY A systematic literature review was performed on full economic evaluations of infectious disease interventions using disability-adjusted life years (DALY) as outcome measure. The search was limited to the period between 1994 and September 2011 and conducted in Medline, SciSearch and EMBASE databases. We included 154 studies, mostly targeting HIV/AIDS and malaria with most conducted for African countries (40%) and <10% in high-income countries. Third-payer perspective was applied in 29% of the studies, 25% used the societal perspective and 12% used both. Only 16% of the studies took indirect effects (i.e. herd immunity) of interventions into account. Intervention, direct healthcare and indirect non-healthcare costs were taken into account in respectively 100%, 81% and 36% of the studies. The majority of the studies followed the Global Burden of Disease method for DALY estimations, but most studies deviated from WHO cost-effectiveness guidelines. Better adherence to freely accessible guidelines will improve generalizability between full economic evaluations.

Impact of infectious diseases on population health using incidence-based disability-adjusted life years (DALYs): results from the Burden of Communicable Diseases in Europe study, European Union and European Economic Area countries, 2009 to 2013.

Background and aims The Burden of Communicable Diseases in Europe (BCoDE) study aimed to calculate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 31 selected diseases in the European Union (EU) and European Economic Area (EEA). Methods: DALYs were estimated using an incidence-based and pathogen-based approach. Incidence was estimated through assessment of data availability and quality, and a correction was applied for under-estimation. Calculation of DALYs was performed with the BCoDE software toolkit without applying time discounting and age-weighting. Results: We estimated that one in 14 inhabitants experienced an infectious disease episode for a total burden of 1.38 million DALYs (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 1.25–1.5) between 2009 and 2013; 76% of which was related to the acute phase of the infection and its short-term complications. Influenza had the highest burden (30% of the total burden), followed by tuberculosis, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection/AIDS and invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD). Men had the highest burden measured in DALYs (60% of the total), adults 65 years of age and over had 24% and children less than 5 years of age had 11%. Age group-specific burden showed that infants (less than 1 year of age) and elderly people (80 years of age and over) experienced the highest burden. Conclusions: These results provide baseline estimates for evaluating infectious disease prevention and control strategies. The study promotes an evidence-based approach to describing population health and assessing surveillance data availability and quality, and provides information for the planning and prioritisation of limited resources in infectious disease prevention and control.