Alessandro Frino

Market Behaviour around Bankruptcy Announcements: Evidence from the Australian Stock Exchange

The corporate distress literature to date has largely focused on the predictive power of accounting variables (Altman, 2001). Following previous literature, this study examines the relevance of abnormal stock returns in discriminating between failed and non-failed firms (e.g. Clark and Weinstein, 1983; Shumway, 2001). Our results confirm the findings of previous literature that investors in failed firms typically incur substantial negative stock returns leading up to failure announcements. However, in contrast to prior research we do not find evidence of an announcement effect (i.e. negative stock returns on the event day itself or the day preceding). We also document evidence that the bid-ask spreads of failed firms widen substantially up to 7 months prior to failure, indicating the likelihood of significant information asymmetries across investors in failed firms.

Index Arbitrage and the Pricing Relationship between Australian Stock Index Futures and Their Underlying Shares

This paper examines the mispricing of Australian stock index futures. Exogenous and endogenous price volatility is confirmed to have a positive impact on the mispricing spread, after filtering out predictable time series components. More accurate pricing associated with surprise trading volume in the underlying stocks is consistent with arbitrageurs acting to narrow price disparities relative to the futures market. Ex-ante interest rate volatility is the primary source of risk faced by arbitrageurs and fluctuations in the market impact cost of opening index arbitrage positions influence the extent to which they drive prices towards theoretical fair values.

How Much Does an Illegal Insider Trade

We develop a model of the choice of trade size by an illegal insider. The model recognises that insiders respond to both the expected gains and costs associated with their crime, and choose a trade size which maximises the expected utility of wealth associated with the trade. The model predicts that the size of an insider’s trade is a function of the value of their information, the expected penalty if detected and a number of variables related to the probability of detection which includes the structure of the market in which they trade, the number of days prior to an information announcement that they transact and their relationship to the corporation with which they trade. The model also recognises that besides being criminals, illegal insider traders are also investors, and therefore respond to the volatility of asset returns in the security for which they have non-public information. Using a unique dataset hand-collected from the litigation reports of the Securities and Exchange Commission and court cases we provide evidence consistent with the predictions of the model.

Market Behavior of Institutional Investors around Bankruptcy Announcements

This paper examines, using proprietary ASX data containing institutional holdings, if institutional investors exit en mass prior to announcements of financial distress. Evidence indicates that while some institutional investors exit the stock, the withdrawal is gradual, commencing approximately 115 days prior to event. This is driven by active institutional investors reacting to the release of the financially distressed companies’ last publicly released financial reports. There is no significant decline in institutional holdings before announcements; most institutional investors hold financially distressed shares through to failure. There is evidence that the lack of disclosure drives the increase in information asymmetry prior to company failure.

Accrual-based earnings management in state owned companies: Implications for transnational accounting regulation

Purpose - – Opposition to transnational calls for the adoption of accrual-based accounting in the public sector may stem from arguments that it is associated with poor earnings quality. The purpose of this paper is to determine whether state owned enterprises (SOEs) operating under accrual-based accounting manage their earnings, whether it is more prevalent Design/methodology/approach - – This paper measures earnings management for a large sample of unlisted Italian SOEs and POEs using a framework developed by Stubben (2010). The authors use regression analysis to estimate the variables which predict abnormal accruals including firm size, leverage and profitability. Findings - – The authors find no evidence that the level of state ownership (SO) is positively correlated with accrual-based earnings management. The authors also provide evidence that earnings management by SOEs decreases with firm size and increases with profitability. Research limitations/implications - – While the study is the first to examine earnings management in a public sector accrual accounting environment for a sample of European firms, namely Italian firms, the authors call for more research into this issue examining public entities in other European Union (EU) member states or public entities other than SOEs. Practical implications - – The EU recently introduced a new transnational accounting directive in which it prescribes the preparation of financial statements based on accrual accounting for all European public sector entities, arguing that it reduces the window dressing that is allowed by cash accounting. Since Italian SOEs already prepare their accounts on an accruals-basis, by analysing their accounting behaviour the authors are able to determine the variables which predict when earning management is more likely to occur in a public sector accrual accounting environment, and therefore the authors provide guidance which may be useful in shaping the transition process from cash accounting to accrual accounting by identifying the types of entities whose accounts should be subject to greater regulatory scrutiny. A better understanding of the relation between SO and earnings management will provide insight into public sector corporate governance and aid in the acceptance of transnational regulation that would otherwise significantly alter current accounting practices and possibly be opposed at a national level. Originality/value - – Earnings management in a public sector accrual accounting environment had been analysed only for Chinese listed companies. The authors extend previous analysis to a sample of European (Italian) SOEs which are unlisted. The authors also extend previous work by determining the characteristics of firms which manage their earnings.

The impact of auctions on residential property prices

This study assesses whether the sale method in residential real estate markets – auction versus private treaty – is a determinant of sale price. Utilising a larger and richer dataset than previous research, we test for a price effect in auction sales in Sydney and Christchurch. When self‐selection biases are corrected for, using two‐stage hedonic regression analysis and a matched sampling procedure, we find no significant difference between prices of properties sold at auction to those sold by private treaty. This conflicts with the conclusions of previous research in the Australian and New Zealand housing markets, which have documented a price premium associated with auction sales.