Alessandro Girardi

Regional inequalities and cohesion policies in the european union

In spite of the huge amount of public aids to poor regions, relative movements in the distribution of income, labor productivity and employment rates across European regions show no positive relation with the distribution of the Structural Funds. Specifically, widening employment gaps and a growing positive correlation between productivity levels and employment rates are brought to light. Furthermore, although the distribution of Funds committed by the Commission appears conform to equity and cohesion principles, once the total cost of projects – which includes the contribution of national authorities - is considered, the image of equity is blurred. This bias in the allocation process may have contributed to the scarce efficiency of EU regional policy carried out during the nineties.

Are the Baltic Countries Ready to Adopt the Euro? A Generalised Purchasing Power Parity Approach

This paper focuses on macroeconomic interdependencies between the Euro area and three transition economies (Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia), with the aim of establishing whether the latter are ready to adopt the Euro. The theoretical framework is based on the Generalised Purchasing Power Parity (GPPP) hypothesis, which is empirically tested within a Vector Error Correction (VEC) model. Using both monthly and quarterly data over the period 1993-2005, it is found that GPPP holds for the real exchange rate vis-a-vis the Euro of each Baltic country, reflecting a degree of real convergence consistent with Optimum Currency Area criteria. Further, the adopted joint modelling approach for the real exchange rates of the Baltic region outperforms a number of alternative models in terms of out-of-sample forecasts.

Fiscal Spillovers in the Euro Area

This paper analyses the dynamic effects of fiscal imbalances in a given EMU member state on the borrowing costs of other countries in the euro area. The estimation of a multivariate, multi-country time series model (specifically a Global VAR, or GVAR) using quarterly data for the EMU period suggests that euro-denominated government yields are strongly linked with each other. However, financial markets seem to be able to discriminate among different issuers. Consequently, fiscal imbalances in Italy and in other peripheral countries should be closely monitored by their EMU partners and the European institutions.

Trade Intensity and Output Synchronisation: On the Endogeneity Properties of EMU

Using annual bilateral data over the period 1988-2011 for a panel of 24 industrialised and emerging economies, we analyse in a time-varying framework the determinants of output synchronisation in EMU (European Monetary Union) distinguishing between core and peripheral member states. The results support the specialisation paradigm rather than the endogeneity hypothesis. Evidence is found in the euro period of diverging patterns between the core and the peripheral EMU countries raising questions about the future stability of EMU.

Euro area inflation: long-run determinants and short-run dynamics

This study adopts the long-run structural VAR approach to analyse the determinants of inflation in the Euro Area economy over the period 1985:1–2003:2. Theoretical relationships link inflation to markup and output gap, respectively. The short-run dynamic properties of inflation are investigated using a structural VECM. Inflation is explained by a mixture of supply- and demand-side factors, both in the long- and the short-run. The simulation exercise indicates that a positive shock to inflation could have a favourable re-distributional income effect on wage earners and non-detrimental consequences either on productivity and on competitiveness. Finally, the model produces satisfactory out-of-sample forecasts.

Migration and Regional Unemployment in Italy

Does interregional migration equilibrate regional labor market performances? We answer this question focusing on regional unemployment dynamics in Italy over the 1995-2006 period, when a strong flow of out-migration from the South to the North occurred. Using System-GMM estimators for spatial dynamic panel data models in the presence of endogenous variables, the empirical analysis documents that past migration flows exert a negative effect on current regional unemployment. By falsifying the common wisdom, our results thus indicate that migration flows are likely to magnify spatial disparities in unemployment rates rather than mitigate them.

Pricing to Market of Italian Exporting Firms

This article investigates the pricing-to-market (PTM) behaviour of Italian exporting firms, using quarterly survey data by sector and by region over the period 1999q1 to 2005q2. A partial equilibrium imperfect competition model provides the structure according to which the orthogonality of structural shocks is derived. Impulse response analysis shows non-negligible reactions of export-domestic price margins to unanticipated changes in cost competitiveness and in foreign and domestic demand levels, even though these effects appear to be of a transitory nature. For the period 1999 to 2001, a typical PTM behaviour emerges, while, during the most recent years favourable foreign demand conditions allowed firms to increase their export-domestic price margins in face of a strong deterioration of their cost competitiveness. Macroeconomic implications of the observed PTM behaviour are also discussed.

The Role of Indicator Selection in Nowcasting Euro Area GDP in Pseudo Real Time

Building on the literature on regularization and dimension reduction methods, we have developed a quarterly forecasting model for euro area GDP. This method consists in bridging quarterly national accounts data using factors extracted from a large panel of monthly and quarterly series including business surveys and financial indicators. The pseudo real-time nature of the information set is accounted for as the pattern of publication lags is considered. Forecast evaluation exercises show that predictions obtained through various dimension reduction methods outperform both the benchmark AR and the diffusion index model without pre-selected indicators. Moreover, forecast combination significantly reduces forecast error.

Price formation on the EuroMTS platform

This paper examines the process of price discovery in the MTS system, which builds on the parallel quoting of euro-denominated government securities on a number of (relatively large) domestic markets and on a (relatively small) European marketplace (EuroMTS). Using twenty-seven months of daily data for 107 pairs of bonds, we present unambiguous evidence that trades on EuroMTS have a sizeable informational content.

Structural changes and deviations from the Purchasing Power Parity within the euro area

This study focuses on macroeconomic convergence within the euro area over the period 1984–2002. The theoretical framework builds on the generalized purchasing power parity hypothesis, which is empirically tested using vector error correction models with broken deterministic components. The euro area turns out to be an integrated entity, even if national economies still exhibit a certain degree of heterogeneity. The results also suggest that up to now the ‘euro-effect’ in fostering integration within the euro area has been quite weak.