Alessandro Margheri

Persistence in seasonally forced epidemiological models

In this paper we address the persistence of a class of seasonally forced epidemiological models. We use an abstract theorem about persistence by Fonda. Five different examples of application are given.

Heterogeneity in susceptibility to infection can explain high reinfection rates

Heterogeneity in susceptibility and infectivity is inherent to infectious disease transmission in nature. Here we are concerned with the formulation of mathematical models that capture the essence of heterogeneity while keeping a simple structure suitable of analytical treatment. We explore the consequences of host heterogeneity in the susceptibility to infection for epidemiological models for which immunity conferred by infection is partially protective, known as susceptible-infected-recovered-infected (SIRI) models. We analyze the impact of heterogeneity on disease prevalence and contrast the susceptibility profiles of the subpopulations at risk for primary infection and reinfection. We present a systematic study in the case of two frailty groups. We predict that the average rate of reinfection may be higher than the average rate of primary infection, which may seem paradoxical given that primary infection induces life-long partial protection. Infection generates a selection mechanism whereby fit individuals remain in S and frail individuals are transferred to R. If this effect is strong enough we have a scenario where, on average, the rate of reinfection is higher than the rate of primary infection even though each individual has a risk reduction following primary infection. This mechanism may explain high rates of tuberculosis reinfection recently reported. Finally, the enhanced benefits of vaccination strategies that target the high-risk groups are quantified.

Connected Branches of Initial Points for Asymptotic BVPs, With Application to Heteroclinic and Homoclinic Solutions

Abstract We consider the second order nonlinear ODE uʺ – f(t, u) = 0 and assume that f(·, υ0) ≡ 0; for some υ0 ∈ ℝ. We prove the existence of closed connected sets Γ ⊆ ℝ2 of initial points such that for each (α, β) ∈ Γ there exists a solution u(·) of the given differential equation, with (u(t0), uʹ(t0)) = (α, β) and (u(t), uʹ(t)) → (υ0, 0) as t → –∞ (or as t → +∞). These results are then applied to the search of heteroclinic and homoclinic solutions.

On the correlation between variance in individual susceptibilities and infection prevalence in populations

The hypothesis that infection prevalence in a population correlates negatively with variance in the susceptibility of its individuals has support from experimental, field, and theoretical studies. However, its generality has never been formally demonstrated. Here we formulate an endemic SIS model with individual susceptibility distributed according to a discrete or continuous probability function to assess the generality of such hypothesis. We introduce an ordering among susceptibility distributions with the same mean, analogous to that considered in Katriel (J Math Biol 65:237–262, 2012) to order the attack rates in an epidemic SIR model with heterogeneity. It turns out that if one distribution dominates another in this order then it has greater variance and corresponds to a lower infection prevalence for

Chaotic Dynamics of the Kepler Problem with Oscillating Singularity

R_0

Heterogeneity in disease risk induces falling vaccine protection with rising disease incidence

R0 varying in a suitable maximal interval of the form

A Geometric Approach to the Existence of Sets of Periodic Orbits

]1, R_0^*].