Alessandro Messeri

The impact of built-up surfaces on land surface temperatures in Italian urban areas

Urban areas are characterized by the very high degree of soil sealing and continuous built-up areas: Italy is one of the European countries with the highest artificial land cover rate, which causes a substantial spatial variation in the land surface temperature (LST), modifying the urban microclimate and contributing to the urban heat island effect. Nevertheless, quantitative data regarding the contribution of different densities of built-up surfaces in determining urban spatial LST changes is currently lacking in Italy. This study, which aimed to provide clear and quantitative city-specific information on annual and seasonal spatial LST modifications resulting from increased urban built-up coverage, was conducted generally throughout the whole year, and specifically in two different periods (cool/cold and warm/hot periods). Four cities (Milan, Rome, Bologna and Florence) were included in the study. The LST layer and the built-up-surface indicator were obtained via use of MODIS remote sensing data products (1km) and a very high-resolution map (5m) of built-up surfaces recently developed by the Italian National Institute for Environmental Protection and Research. The relationships between the dependent (mean daily, daytime and nighttime LST values) and independent (built-up surfaces) variables were investigated through linear regression analyses, and comprehensive built-up-surface-related LST maps were also developed. Statistically significant linear relationships (p<0.001) between built-up surfaces and spatial LST variations were observed in all the cities studied, with a higher impact during the warm/hot period than in the cool/cold ones. Daytime and nighttime LST slope patterns depend on the city size and relative urban morphology. If implemented in the existing city plan, the urban maps of built-up-surface-related LST developed in this study might be able to support more sustainable urban land management practices by identifying the critical areas (Hot-Spots) that would benefit most from mitigation actions by local authorities, land-use decision makers, and urban planners.

Environmental temperature and thermal indices: What is the most effective predictor of heat-related mortality in different geographical contexts?

The aim of this study is to identify the most effective thermal predictor of heat-related very-elderly mortality in two cities located in different geographical contexts of central Italy. We tested the hypothesis that use of the state-of-the-art rational thermal indices, the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI), might provide an improvement in predicting heat-related mortality with respect to other predictors. Data regarding very elderly people (≥75 years) who died in inland and coastal cities from 2006 to 2008 (May–October) and meteorological and air pollution were obtained from the regional mortality and environmental archives. Rational (UTCI) and direct thermal indices represented by a set of bivariate/multivariate apparent temperature indices were assessed. Correlation analyses and generalized additive models were applied. The Akaike weights were used for the best model selection. Direct multivariate indices showed the highest correlations with UTCI and were also selected as the best thermal predictors of heat-related mortality for both inland and coastal cities. Conversely, the UTCI was never identified as the best thermal predictor. The use of direct multivariate indices, which also account for the extra effect of wind speed and/or solar radiation, revealed the best fitting with all-cause, very-elderly mortality attributable to heat stress.

Weather-Related Flood and Landslide Damage: A Risk Index for Italian Regions

The frequency of natural hazards has been increasing in the last decades in Europe and specifically in Mediterranean regions due to climate change. For example heavy precipitation events can lead to disasters through the interaction with exposed and vulnerable people and natural systems. It is therefore necessary a prevention planning to preserve human health and to reduce economic losses. Prevention should mainly be carried out with more adequate land management, also supported by the development of an appropriate risk prediction tool based on weather forecasts. The main aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between weather types (WTs) and the frequency of floods and landslides that have caused damage to properties, personal injuries, or deaths in the Italian regions over recent decades. In particular, a specific risk index (WT-FLARI) for each WT was developed at national and regional scale. This study has identified a specific risk index associated with each weather type, calibrated for each Italian region and applicable to both annual and seasonal levels. The risk index represents the seasonal and annual vulnerability of each Italian region and indicates that additional preventive actions are necessary for some regions. The results of this study represent a good starting point towards the development of a tool to support policy-makers, local authorities and health agencies in planning actions, mainly in the medium to long term, aimed at the weather damage reduction that represents an important issue of the World Meteorological Organization mission.