Alessandro Vespignani

The architecture of complex weighted networks

Networked structures arise in a wide array of different contexts such as technological and transportation infrastructures, social phenomena, and biological systems. These highly interconnected systems have recently been the focus of a great deal of attention that has uncovered and characterized their topological complexity. Along with a complex topological structure, real networks display a large heterogeneity in the capacity and intensity of the connections. These features, however, have mainly not been considered in past studies where links are usually represented as binary states, i.e., either present or absent. Here, we study the scientific collaboration network and the world-wide air-transportation network, which are representative examples of social and large infrastructure systems, respectively. In both cases it is possible to assign to each edge of the graph a weight proportional to the intensity or capacity of the connections among the various elements of the network. We define appropriate metrics combining weighted and topological observables that enable us to characterize the complex statistical properties and heterogeneity of the actual strength of edges and vertices. This information allows us to investigate the correlations among weighted quantities and the underlying topological structure of the network. These results provide a better description of the hierarchies and organizational principles at the basis of the architecture of weighted networks.

The Parable of Google Flu: Traps in Big Data Analysis

Large errors in flu prediction were largely avoidable, which offers lessons for the use of big data. In February 2013, Google Flu Trends (GFT) made headlines but not for a reason that Google executives or the creators of the flu tracking system would have hoped. Nature reported that GFT was predicting more than double the proportion of doctor visits for influenza-like illness (ILI) than the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), which bases its estimates on surveillance reports from laboratories across the United States (1, 2). This happened despite the fact that GFT was built to predict CDC reports. Given that GFT is often held up as an exemplary use of big data (3, 4), what lessons can we draw from this error?

Epidemic dynamics and endemic states in complex networks

We study by analytical methods and large scale simulations a dynamical model for the spreading of epidemics in complex networks. In networks with exponentially bounded connectivity we recover the usual epidemic behavior with a threshold defining a critical point below that the infection prevalence is null. On the contrary, on a wide range of scale-free networks we observe the absence of an epidemic threshold and its associated critical behavior. This implies that scale-free networks are prone to the spreading and the persistence of infections whatever spreading rate the epidemic agents might possess. These results can help understanding computer virus epidemics and other spreading phenomena on communication and social networks.

Dynamical and correlation properties of the Internet

The description of the Internet topology is an important open problem, recently tackled with the introduction of scale-free networks. We focus on the topological and dynamical properties of real Internet maps in a three-year time interval. We study higher order correlation functions as well as the dynamics of several quantities. We find that the Internet is characterized by non-trivial correlations among nodes and different dynamical regimes. We point out the importance of node hierarchy and aging in the Internet structure and growth. Our results provide hints towards the realistic modeling of the Internet evolution.

The role of the airline transportation network in the prediction and predictability of global epidemics

The systematic study of large-scale networks has unveiled the ubiquitous presence of connectivity patterns characterized by large scale hetero geneities and unbounded statistical fluctuations. These features affect dramatically the be havior of the diffusion processes occurring on networks, determining the ensuing statistical properties of their evolution pattern and dynamics. In this paper, we investigate the role of the large scale properties of the airline transportation network in determining the global evolution of emerging disease. We present a stochastic computational framework for the forecast of global epidemics that considers the complete world-wide air travel infrastructure complemented with census population data. We address two basic issues in global epidemic modeling: i) We study the role of the large scale properties of the airline transportation network in determining the global diffusion pattern of emerging diseases; ii) We evaluate the reliability of forecasts and outbreak scenarios with respect to the intrinsic stochasticit y of disease transmission and traffic flows. In order to address these issues we define a set of novel q uantitative measures able to characterize the level of heterogeneity and predictabil ity of the epidemic pattern. These

Epidemic outbreaks in complex heterogeneous networks

Abstract:We present a detailed analytical and numerical study for the spreading of infections with acquired immunity in complex population networks. We show that the large connectivity fluctuations usually found in these networks strengthen considerably the incidence of epidemic outbreaks. Scale-free networks, which are characterized by diverging connectivity fluctuations in the limit of a very large number of nodes, exhibit the lack of an epidemic threshold and always show a finite fraction of infected individuals. This particular weakness, observed also in models without immunity, defines a new epidemiological framework characterized by a highly heterogeneous response of the system to the introduction of infected individuals with different connectivity. The understanding of epidemics in complex networks might deliver new insights in the spread of information and diseases in biological and technological networks that often appear to be characterized by complex heterogeneous architectures.

Epidemic processes in complex networks

In recent years the research community has accumulated overwhelming evidence for the emergence of complex and heterogeneous connectivity patterns in a wide range of biological and sociotechnical systems. The complex properties of real-world networks have a profound impact on the behavior of equilibrium and nonequilibrium phenomena occurring in various systems, and the study of epidemic spreading is central to our understanding of the unfolding of dynamical processes in complex networks. The theoretical analysis of epidemic spreading in heterogeneous networks requires the development of novel analytical frameworks, and it has produced results of conceptual and practical relevance. A coherent and comprehensive review of the vast research activity concerning epidemic processes is presented, detailing the successful theoretical approaches as well as making their limits and assumptions clear. Physicists, mathematicians, epidemiologists, computer, and social scientists share a common interest in studying epidemic spreading and rely on similar models for the description of the diffusion of pathogens, knowledge, and innovation. For this reason, while focusing on the main results and the paradigmatic models in infectious disease modeling, the major results concerning generalized social contagion processes are also presented. Finally, the research activity at the forefront in the study of epidemic spreading in coevolving, coupled, and time-varying networks is reported.

Global protein function prediction from protein-protein interaction networks

Determining protein function is one of the most challenging problems of the post-genomic era. The availability of entire genome sequences and of high-throughput capabilities to determine gene coexpression patterns has shifted the research focus from the study of single proteins or small complexes to that of the entire proteome. In this context, the search for reliable methods for assigning protein function is of primary importance. There are various approaches available for deducing the function of proteins of unknown function using information derived from sequence similarity or clustering patterns of co-regulated genes, phylogenetic profiles, protein-protein interactions (refs. 5–8 and Samanta, M.P. and Liang, S., unpublished data), and protein complexes. Here we propose the assignment of proteins to functional classes on the basis of their network of physical interactions as determined by minimizing the number of protein interactions among different functional categories. Function assignment is proteome-wide and is determined by the global connectivity pattern of the protein network. The approach results in multiple functional assignments, a consequence of the existence of multiple equivalent solutions. We apply the method to analyze the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae protein-protein interaction network. The robustness of the approach is tested in a system containing a high percentage of unclassified proteins and also in cases of deletion and insertion of specific protein interactions.

Multiscale mobility networks and the spatial spreading of infectious diseases

Among the realistic ingredients to be considered in the computational modeling of infectious diseases, human mobility represents a crucial challenge both on the theoretical side and in view of the limited availability of empirical data. To study the interplay between short-scale commuting flows and long-range airline traffic in shaping the spatiotemporal pattern of a global epidemic we (i) analyze mobility data from 29 countries around the world and find a gravity model able to provide a global description of commuting patterns up to 300 kms and (ii) integrate in a worldwide-structured metapopulation epidemic model a timescale-separation technique for evaluating the force of infection due to multiscale mobility processes in the disease dynamics. Commuting flows are found, on average, to be one order of magnitude larger than airline flows. However, their introduction into the worldwide model shows that the large-scale pattern of the simulated epidemic exhibits only small variations with respect to the baseline case where only airline traffic is considered. The presence of short-range mobility increases, however, the synchronization of subpopulations in close proximity and affects the epidemic behavior at the periphery of the airline transportation infrastructure. The present approach outlines the possibility for the definition of layered computational approaches where different modeling assumptions and granularities can be used consistently in a unifying multiscale framework.

Modeling the Worldwide Spread of Pandemic Influenza: Baseline Case and Containment Interventions

Background The highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza virus, which is now widespread in Southeast Asia and which diffused recently in some areas of the Balkans region and Western Europe, has raised a public alert toward the potential occurrence of a new severe influenza pandemic. Here we study the worldwide spread of a pandemic and its possible containment at a global level taking into account all available information on air travel. Methods and Findings We studied a metapopulation stochastic epidemic model on a global scale that considers airline travel flow data among urban areas. We provided a temporal and spatial evolution of the pandemic with a sensitivity analysis of different levels of infectiousness of the virus and initial outbreak conditions (both geographical and seasonal). For each spreading scenario we provided the timeline and the geographical impact of the pandemic in 3,100 urban areas, located in 220 different countries. We compared the baseline cases with different containment strategies, including travel restrictions and the therapeutic use of antiviral (AV) drugs. We investigated the effect of the use of AV drugs in the event that therapeutic protocols can be carried out with maximal coverage for the populations in all countries. In view of the wide diversity of AV stockpiles in different regions of the world, we also studied scenarios in which only a limited number of countries are prepared (i.e., have considerable AV supplies). In particular, we compared different plans in which, on the one hand, only prepared and wealthy countries benefit from large AV resources, with, on the other hand, cooperative containment scenarios in which countries with large AV stockpiles make a small portion of their supplies available worldwide. Conclusions We show that the inclusion of air transportation is crucial in the assessment of the occurrence probability of global outbreaks. The large-scale therapeutic usage of AV drugs in all hit countries would be able to mitigate a pandemic effect with a reproductive rate as high as 1.9 during the first year; with AV supply use sufficient to treat approximately 2% to 6% of the population, in conjunction with efficient case detection and timely drug distribution. For highly contagious viruses (i.e., a reproductive rate as high as 2.3), even the unrealistic use of supplies corresponding to the treatment of approximately 20% of the population leaves 30%–50% of the population infected. In the case of limited AV supplies and pandemics with a reproductive rate as high as 1.9, we demonstrate that the more cooperative the strategy, the more effective are the containment results in all regions of the world, including those countries that made part of their resources available for global use.