Alessio Turchi

Existence of quasi-stationary states at the long range threshold

Abstract In this paper the lifetime of quasi-stationary states (QSS) in the α –HMF model are investigated at the long range threshold ( α equals to one). It is found that QSS exist and have a diverging lifetime with system size which scales logaritmically with the number of constituents. This contrast to the exhibited power law below the long range threshold ( α smaller than one) and the observed finite lifetime beyond. Also even beyond this long range threshold the long range nature of the system is displayed, namely the existence of a phase transition. As a consequence of our findings the definition of a long range system is discussed.

Optical turbulence forecast: ready for an operational application

One of the main goals of the feasibility study MOSE (MOdellig ESO Sites) is to evaluate the performances of a method conceived to forecast the optical turbulence above the ESO sites of the Very Large Telescope and the European-Extremely Large Telescope in Chile. The method implied the use of a dedicated code conceived for the optical turbulence (OT) called Astro-Meso-Nh. In this paper we present results we obtained at conclusion of this project concerning the performances of this method in forecasting the most relevant parameters related to the optical turbulence (CN2, seeing , isoplanatic angle theta_0 and wavefront coherence time tau_0). Numerical predictions related to a very rich statistical sample of nights uniformly distributed along a solar year and belonging to different years have been compared to observations and different statistical operators have been analyzed such as classical bias, RMSE and and more sophisticated statistical operators derived by the contingency tables that are able to quantify the score of success of a predictive method such as the percentage of correct detection (PC) and the probability to detect a parameter within a specific range of values (POD). The main conclusions of the study tell us that the Astro-Meso-Nh model provides performances that are already very good to definitely guarantee a not negligible positive impact on the Service Mode of top-class telescopes and ELTs. A demonstrator for an automatic and operational version of the Astro-Meso-Nh model will be soon implemented on the sites of VLT and E-ELT.

LBTO's long march to full operation: step 2

Step 1 (Veillet et al.1), after a review of the development of the Large Binocular Telescope Observatory (LBTO from the early concepts of the early 80s to mid-2014, outlined a six-year plan (LBT2020) aimed at optimizing LBTOs scientific production while mitigating the consequences of the inevitable setbacks brought on by the considerable complexity of the telescope and the very diverse nature of the LBTO partnership. Step 2 is now focusing on the first two years of implementation of this plan, presenting the encountered obstacles, technical, cultural and political, and how they were overcome. Weather and another incident with one of the Adaptive Secondaries slowed down commissioning activities. All the facility instruments should have been commissioned and offered in binocular mode in early or mid-2016. It will happen instead by the end of 2016. On a brighter side, the first scientific publications using the LBT as a 23-m telescope through interferometry were published in 2015 and the overall number of publications has been raising at a good pace. Three second generation instruments were selected, scheduled to come on the telescope in the next three to five years. They will all use the excellent performance of the LBT Adaptive Optics (AO), which will be even better thanks to an upgrade of the AO to be completed in 2018. Less progress than hoped was made to move the current observing mode of the telescope to a whole LBT-wide queue. In two years from now, we should have a fully operational telescope, including a laser-based Ground Layer AO (GLAO) system, hopefully fully running in queue, with new instruments in development, new services offered to the users, and a stronger scientific production.

Forecasting surface-layer atmospheric parameters at the Large Binocular Telescope site

In this paper we quantify the performances of an automated weather forecast system implemented on the Large Binocular Telescope (LBT) site at Mt. Graham (Arizona) in forecasting the main atmospheric parameters close to the ground. The system employs a mesoscale non-hydrostatic numerical model (Meso-Nh). To validate the model we compare the forecasts of wind speed, wind direction, temperature and relative humidity close to the ground with the respective values measured by instrumentation installed on the telescope dome. The study is performed over a large sample of nights uniformly distributed over two years. The quantitative analysis is done using classical statistical operators (bias, RMSE and

Statistical theory of quasistationary states beyond the single water-bag case study.

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Forecasts of the atmospherical parameters close to the ground at the LBT site in the context of the ALTA project

) and contingency tables, which allows to extract complementary key information, such as the percentage of correct detection (PC) and the probability to obtain a correct detection within a defined interval of values (POD). Results of our study indicate that the model performances in forecasting the atmospheric parameters we have just cited are very good, in some cases excellent: RMSE for temperature is below 1{\deg} C, for relative humidity is 14%, for the wind speed is around 2.5m/s. The relative error of the RMSE for wind direction varies from 9% to 17% depending on the wind speed conditions. This work is performed in the context of ALTA (Advanced LBT Turbulence and Atmosphere) Center project, which final goal is to provide forecasts of all the atmospheric parameters and the optical turbulence to support LBT observations, adaptive optics facilities and interferometric facilities.

Towards an automatic wind speed and direction profiler for Wide Field adaptive optics systems

An analytical solution for the out-of-equilibrium quasistationary states of the paradigmatic Hamiltonian mean field (HMF) model can be obtained from a maximum entropy principle. The theory has been so far tested with reference to a specific class of initial condition, the so called (single-level) water-bag type. In this paper a step forward is taken by considering an arbitrary number of overlapping water bags. The theory is benchmarked to direct microcanonical simulations performed for the case of a two-level water-bag. The comparison is shown to return an excellent agreement.

Forecasting water vapour above the sites of ESO’s Very Large Telescope (VLT) and the Large Binocular Telescope (LBT)

In this paper we study the abilities of an atmospherical mesoscale model in forecasting the classical atmospherical parameters relevant for astronomical applications at the surface layer (wind speed, wind direction, temperature, relative humidity) on the Large Binocular Telescope (LBT) site - Mount Graham, Arizona. The study is carried out in the framework of the ALTA project aiming at implementing an automated system for the forecasts of atmospherical parameters (Meso-Nh code) and the optical turbulence (Astro-Meso-Nh code) for the service-mode operation of the LBT. The final goal of such an operational tool is to provide predictions with high time frequency of atmospheric and optical parameters for an optimized planning of the telescope operation (dome thermalization, wind-dependent dome orientation, observation planning based on predicted seeing, adaptive optics optimization, etc...). Numerical simulations are carried out with the Meso-Nh and Astro-Meso-Nh codes, which were proven to give excellent results in previous studies focused on the two ESO sites of Cerro Paranal and Cerro Armazones (MOSE Project). In this paper we will focus our attention on the comparison of atmospherical parameters forescasted by the model close to the ground with measurements taken by the observatory instrumentations and stored in the LBT telemetry in order to validate the numerical predictions. As previously done for Cerro Paranal (Lascaux et al., 2015), we will also present an analysis of the model performances based on the method of the contingency tables, that allows us to provide complementary key information with the respect to the bias and RMSE (systematic and statistical errors), such as the percentage of correct detection and the probability to obtain a correct detection inside a defined interval of values.

Optical turbulence forecast in the Adaptive Optics realm

Wide Field Adaptive Optics (WFAO) systems are among the most sophisticated AO systems available today on large telescopes. The knowledge of the vertical spatio-temporal distribution of the wind speed (WS) and direction (WD) are fundamental to optimize the performance of such systems. Previous studies already proved that the Gemini Multi-Conjugated AO system (GeMS) is able to retrieve measurements of the WS and WD stratification using the SLODAR technique and to store measurements in the telemetry data. In order to assess the reliability of these estimates and of the SLODAR technique applied to such a kind of complex AO systems, in this study we compared WS and WD retrieved from GeMS with those obtained with the atmospherical model Meso-Nh on a rich statistical sample of nights. It has been previously proved that, the latter technique, provided an excellent agreement with a large sample of radiosoundings both, in statistical terms and on individual flights. It can be considered, therefore, as an independent reference. The excellent agreement between GeMS measurements and the model that we find in this study, proves the robustness of the SLODAR approach. To by-pass the complex procedures necessary to achieve automatic measurements of the wind with GeMS, we propose a simple automatic method to monitor nightly WS and WD using the Meso-Nh model estimates. Such a method can be applied to whatever present or new generation facilities supported by WFAO systems. The interest of this study is, therefore, well beyond the optimization of GeMS performance.

Evaluation of filtering techniques to increase the reliability of weather forecasts for ground-based telescopes

Water vapour in the atmosphere is the main source of the atmospheric opacity in the infrared and sub-millimetric regimes and its value plays a critical role in observations done with instruments working at these wavelengths on ground-based telescopes. The scheduling of scientific observational programs with instruments such as the VLT Imager and Spectrometer for mid Infrared (VISIR) at Cerro Paranal and the Large Binocular Telescope Interferometer (LBTI) at Mount Graham would definitely benefit from the ability to forecast the atmospheric water vapour content. In this contribution we present a study aiming at validating the performance of the non-hydrostatic mesoscale Meso-NH model in reliably predicting precipitable water vapour (PWV) above the two sites. For the VLT case we use, as a reference, measurements done with a Low Humidity and Temperature PROfiling radiometer (LHATPRO) that, since a few years, is operating routinely at the VLT. LHATPRO has been extensively validated on previous studies. We obtain excellent performances on forecasts performed with this model, including for the extremely low values of the PWV (<= 1 mm). For the LBTI case we compare one solar year predictions obtained with the Meso-NH model with satellite estimates again obtaining an excellent agreement. This study represents a further step in validating outputs of atmospheric parameters forecasts from the ALTA Center, an operational and automatic forecast system conceived to support observations at LBT and LBTI.