Alex H. Barbat

Framing vulnerability, risk and societal responses: the MOVE framework

The paper deals with the development of a general as well as integrative and holistic framework to systematize and assess vulnerability, risk and adaptation. The framework is a thinking tool meant as a heuristic that outlines key factors and different dimensions that need to be addressed when assessing vulnerability in the context of natural hazards and climate change. The approach underlines that the key factors of such a common framework are related to the exposure of a society or system to a hazard or stressor, the susceptibility of the system or community exposed, and its resilience and adaptive capacity. Additionally, it underlines the necessity to consider key factors and multiple thematic dimensions when assessing vulnerability in the context of natural and socio-natural hazards. In this regard, it shows key linkages between the different concepts used within the disaster risk management (DRM) and climate change adaptation (CCA) research. Further, it helps to illustrate the strong relationships between different concepts used in DRM and CCA. The framework is also a tool for communicating complexity and stresses the need for societal change in order to reduce risk and to promote adaptation. With regard to this, the policy relevance of the framework and first results of its application are outlined. Overall, the framework presented enhances the discussion on how to frame and link vulnerability, disaster risk, risk management and adaptation concepts.

Seismic vulnerability and risk evaluation methods for urban areas. A review with application to a pilot area

The most relevant seismic vulnerability and risk analysis methods are discussed and compared in this article using, as a pilot urban area, the city of Barcelona, Spain, where risk studies have been carried out over the last 15 years in the framework of different research projects. Most of the buildings in Barcelona, which have unreinforced masonry structure or reinforced concrete structure with waffled slab floors, show a high degree of vulnerability to earthquakes. The physical seismic risk but also the socio-economic implications of risk are considered in the article. The robustness of the innovative holistic approach, based on indicators related to the physical exposure, the social fragilities and the lack of resilience of urban area, is also proved. Using a geographic information system (GIS), the seismic risk results are described by means of scenarios of expected losses, but also as scenarios of probabilities of occurrence of predefined damage states.

Damage Scenarios Simulation for Seismic Risk Assessment in Urban Zones

A methodology for simulating seismic damage of unreinforced masonry buildings for seismic risk assessment of urban areas is presented in this paper. The methodology is based on the Italian vulnerability index and on the results of a post-earthquake damage survey study whose main result was an observed vulnerability function. The Monte Carlo method was then used to simulate damage probability matrices, fragility curves and vulnerability functions, all of which are the basis of a seismic risk study. The simulation process required the generation of thousands of hypothetical buildings, the analysis of their seismic behaviour and probabilistic studies of the computed results. As an example, probable damage scenarios were developed for an urban zone of Barcelona.

VISCOUS DAMAGE MODEL FOR TIMOSHENKO BEAM STRUCTURES

Abstract A local damage constitutive model based on Kachanovs theory is used within a finite element frame and applied to the case of 2D and 3D Timoshenko beam elements. The model takes into account viscous effects, thus allowing damping to be considered in a rigorous way. A damage index based on potential energy criteria, useful in evaluating the behaviour of structures or of parts of structures, is proposed. The procedure is applied to estimate the damage produced by seismic actions in reinforced concrete building structures, whose response is computed by using a non-linear Newmark-type incremental time integration scheme. Three numerical examples are included; one of them compares results obtained by using the proposed model with results of a laboratory test.

New methodology for urban seismic risk assessment from a holistic perspective

The seismic risk evaluation usually works with a fragmented concept of risk, which depends on the scientific discipline in charge of the assessment. To achieve an effective performance of the risk management, it is necessary to define risk as the potential economic, social and environmental consequences due to a hazardous phenomenon in a period of time. This article presents a methodology which evaluates the seismic risk from a holistic perspective, which means, it takes into account the expected physical damage and also the conditions related to social fragility and lack of resilience, which favour the second order effects when a hazard event strikes an urban centre. This seeks to obtain results which are useful in the decision making process for risk reduction. The proposed method for urban seismic risk evaluation uses the fuzzy sets theory in order to handle qualitative concepts and variables involved in the assessment, the physical risk level and aggravation level, related to the social fragility and the lack of resilience, are evaluated and finally a total risk level is determinate.

A finite element methodology for local/global damage evaluation in civil engineering structures

The paper introduces a new global damage evaluation method which leads to a meaningful global damage index. A numerical procedure for the prediction of local and global damage in civil engineering structures using the finite element method and a continuum damage model, is presented. The method is adequate for the computation of the limit load in reinforced concrete (RC) structures and for the prediction of the failure mechanisms. Details of the applied damage model are given together with a description of the finite element implementation and the procedure for computing the global damage parameters. Examples of applications of the methodology to the nonlinear analysis of a range of RC structures, are presented.

Equivalent linearization of the Bouc–Wen hysteretic model

Abstract The smooth endochronic hysteretic Bouc–Wen model is studied from the point of view of random vibration. The sources of the errors of the method of equivalent linearization applied to this model using the hypothesis of joint Gaussian behaviour are examined. The method of linearization for softening hysteretic models proposed by the authors, which is based on a combination of Dirac and Gauss densities, is developed and applied to the Bouc–Wen model under a variety of conditions. It is shown that the method gives excellent estimations of the response statistics without increasing the computational effort required by the conventional technique.

Revealing the socioeconomic impact of small disasters in Colombia using the DesInventar database.

Small disasters are usually the product of climate variability and climate change. Analysis of them illustrates that they increase difficulties for local development-frequently affecting the livelihoods of poor people and perpetuating their level of poverty and human insecurity-and entail challenges for a countrys development. In contrast to extreme events, small disasters are often invisible at the national level and their effects are not considered as relevant from a macroeconomic standpoint. Nevertheless, their accumulated impact causes economic, environmental and social problems. This paper presents the results of an evaluation of the DesInventar database, developed in 1994 by the Network for Social Studies in Disaster Prevention in Latin America. In addition, it proposes a new version of the Local Disaster Index developed in 2005 within the framework of the Disaster Risk and Management Indicators Program for the Americas, with the support of the Inter-American Development Bank.

Estimation of Probabilistic Seismic Losses and the Public Economic Resilience—An Approach for a Macroeconomic Impact Evaluation

The Disaster Deficit Index (DDI) measures country risk from a macroeconomic and financial perspective, according to possible catastrophic events. The DDI captures the relationship between the demand for contingent resources to cover the maximum probable losses and the public sectors economic resilience; that is, the availability of internal and external funds for restoring affected inventories. For calculating potential losses, the model follows the insurance industry in establishing a probable loss, based on the critical impacts during a given period of exposure, and for the economic resilience the model computes the countrys financial ability to cope with the situation taking into account: the insurance and reinsurance payments; the reserve funds for disasters; the funds that may be received as aid and donations; the possible value of new taxes; the margin for budgetary reallocations; the feasible value of external credit; and the internal credit the country may obtain. Access to these resources has limitations and costs that must be taken into account as feasible values according to the macroeconomic and financial conditions of the country. This article presents the model of DDI and proposes it as a simple way of measuring a countrys fiscal exposure and potential deficit—or contingency liabilities—in case of extreme disasters to guide the governmental decisionmaking from economic, financial, and disaster risk reduction perspectives.

Probabilistic earthquake risk assessment using CAPRA: application to the city of Barcelona, Spain

The risk evaluation model CAPRA (Comprehensive Approach to Probabilistic Risk Assessment) is a techno-scientific methodology and information platform, composed of tools for evaluating and communicating risk at various territorial levels. The model allows evaluating losses on exposed elements using probabilistic metrics, such as the loss exceedance curve, the expected annual loss and the probable maximum loss, useful for multi-hazard risk analyses. In this article, the process of probabilistic seismic risk analysis is described, explaining the main features of the CAPRA modules of hazard, vulnerability and risk estimation applied to the city of Barcelona, Spain. In addition, according to the physical risk results and the information on the socioeconomic indicators of the city, this article presents the holistic evaluation of seismic risk, which is a valuable result to facilitate the integrated risk management by the different stakeholders involved in risk reduction decision making.