Alex J Turner

Long-Term Effect of Hospital Pay for Performance on Mortality in England

BACKGROUND A pay-for-performance program based on the Hospital Quality Incentive Demonstration was introduced in all hospitals in the northwest region of England in 2008 and was associated with a short-term (18-month) reduction in mortality. We analyzed the long-term effects of this program, called Advancing Quality. METHODS We analyzed 30-day in-hospital mortality among 1,825,518 hospital admissions for eight conditions, three of which were covered by the financial-incentive program. The hospitals studied included the 24 hospitals in the northwest region that were participating in the program and 137 elsewhere in England that were not participating. We used difference-in-differences regression analysis to compare risk-adjusted mortality for an 18-month period before the program was introduced with subsequent mortality in the short term (the first 18 months of the program) and the longer term (the next 24 months). RESULTS Throughout the short-term and the long-term periods, the performance of hospitals in the incentive program continued to improve and mortality for the three conditions covered by the program continued to fall. However, the reduction in mortality among patients with these conditions was greater in the control hospitals (those not participating in the program) than in the hospitals that were participating in the program (by 0.7 percentage points; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.3 to 1.2). By the end of the 42-month follow-up period, the reduced mortality in the participating hospitals was no longer significant (-0.1 percentage points; 95% CI, -0.6 to 0.3). From the short term to the longer term, the mortality for conditions not covered by the program fell more in the participating hospitals than in the control hospitals (by 1.2 percentage points; 95% CI, 0.4 to 2.0), raising the possibility of a positive spillover effect on care for conditions not covered by the program. CONCLUSIONS Short-term relative reductions in mortality for conditions linked to financial incentives in hospitals participating in a pay-for-performance program in England were not maintained.

EXAMINATION OF THE SYNTHETIC CONTROL METHOD FOR EVALUATING HEALTH POLICIES WITH MULTIPLE TREATED UNITS

Abstract This paper examines the synthetic control method in contrast to commonly used difference‐in‐differences (DiD) estimation, in the context of a re‐evaluation of a pay‐for‐performance (P4P) initiative, the Advancing Quality scheme. The synthetic control method aims to estimate treatment effects by constructing a weighted combination of control units, which represents what the treated group would have experienced in the absence of receiving the treatment. While DiD estimation assumes that the effects of unobserved confounders are constant over time, the synthetic control method allows for these effects to change over time, by re‐weighting the control group so that it has similar pre‐intervention characteristics to the treated group. We extend the synthetic control approach to a setting of evaluation of a health policy where there are multiple treated units. We re‐analyse a recent study evaluating the effects of a hospital P4P scheme on risk‐adjusted hospital mortality. In contrast to the original DiD analysis, the synthetic control method reports that, for the incentivised conditions, the P4P scheme did not significantly reduce mortality and that there is a statistically significant increase in mortality for non‐incentivised conditions. This result was robust to alternative specifications of the synthetic control method.

A cluster randomized controlled trial of the Promoting Alternative Thinking Strategies (PATHS) curriculum

This randomized controlled trial (RCT) evaluated the efficacy of the Promoting Alternative Thinking Strategies curriculum (PATHS; Kusche & Greenberg, 1994) as a means to improve childrens social–emotional competence (assessed via the Social Skills Improvement System (SSIS); Gresham & Elliot, 2008) and mental health outcomes (assessed via the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ); Goodman, 1997). Forty-five schools in Greater Manchester, England, were randomly assigned to treatment and control groups. Allocation was balanced by proportions of children eligible for free school meals and speaking English as an additional language via minimization. Children (N = 4516) aged 7–9 years at baseline in the participating schools were the target cohort. During the two-year trial period, teachers of this cohort in schools allocated to the intervention group delivered the PATHS curriculum, while their counterparts in the control group continued their usual provision. Teachers in PATHS schools received initial training and on-going support and assistance from trained coaches. Hierarchical linear modeling of outcome data was undertaken to identify both primary (e.g., for all children) and secondary (e.g., for children classified as “at-risk”) intervention effects. A primary effect of the PATHS curriculum was found, demonstrating increases in teacher ratings of changes in childrens social–emotional competence. Additionally, secondary effects of PATHS were identified, showing reductions in teacher ratings of emotional symptoms and increases in pro-social behavior and child ratings of engagement among children identified as at-risk at baseline. However, our analyses also identified primary effects favoring the usual provision group, showing reductions in teacher ratings of peer problems and emotional symptoms, and secondary effects demonstrating reductions in teacher ratings of conduct problems and child ratings of co-operation among at-risk children. Effect sizes were small in all cases. These mixed findings suggest that social and emotional learning interventions such as PATHS may not be as efficacious when implemented outside their country of origin and evaluated in independent trials.

The effect of living alone on the costs and benefits of surgery amongst older people

Older people who live alone are a growing, high-cost group for health and social services. The literature on how living alone affects health and the costs and benefits of healthcare has focused on crude measures of health and utilisation and gives little consideration to other cost determinants and aspects of patient experience. We study the effect of living alone at each stage along an entire treatment pathway using a large dataset which provides information on pre-treatment experience, treatment benefits and costs of surgery for 105,843 patients receiving elective hip and knee replacements in England in 2009 and 2010. We find that patients who live alone are healthier prior to treatment and experience the same gains from treatment. However, living alone is associated with a 9.2% longer length of in-hospital stay and increased probabilities of readmission and discharge to expensive destinations. These increase the costs per patient by £179.88 (3.12%) and amount to an additional £4.9 million per annum. A lack of post-discharge support for those living alone is likely to be a key driver of these additional costs.

Generating EQ-5D-3L Utility Scores from the Dermatology Life Quality Index: A Mapping Study in Patients with Psoriasis

OBJECTIVES To develop an algorithm to predict the three-level EuroQol five-dimensional questionnaire (EQ-5D-3L) utility scores from the Dermatology Life Quality Index (DLQI) in psoriasis. METHODS This mapping study used data from the British Association of Dermatologists Biologic Interventions Register-a pharmacovigilance register comprising patients with moderate to severe psoriasis on systemic therapies. Conceptual overlap between the EQ-5D-3L and DLQI was assessed using Spearman rank correlation coefficients and exploratory factor analysis. Six regression methods to predict the EQ-5D-3L index (direct mapping) and two regression methods to predict EQ-5D-3L domain responses (response mapping) were tested. Random effects models were explored to account for repeated observations from the same individual. Estimated and actual EQ-5D-3L utility scores were compared using 10-fold cross-validation (in-sample) to evaluate predictive performance. Final models were selected using root mean squared error, mean absolute error, and mean error. RESULTS The data set comprised 22,085 observations for which DLQI and EQ-5D-3L were recorded on the same day. A moderate correlation was found between the measures (r = -0.47). Exploratory factor analysis showed that two EQ-5D-3L domains (pain/discomfort and depression/anxiety) were associated with all six DLQI domains. The best-performing model used ordinary least squares with DLQI items, age, and sex as explanatory variables (with squared, cubic, and interaction terms). A tool was produced to allow users to map their data to the EQ-5D-3L, and includes algorithms that require fewer variables (e.g., total DLQI scores). CONCLUSIONS This study produced mapping algorithms that can generate EQ-5D-3L utility scores from DLQI data for economic evaluations of health interventions for patients with psoriasis.