Alexander C. Tan

Performance, leadership, factions and party change: An empirical analysis

This article reports the first empirical findings based on data from a major study of party change. Hypotheses are developed linking party change to both internal and external factors. The data provide support for the conclusion that electoral performance alone is not sufficient as an explanation for parties’ decisions to change, and that new leaders and/or dominant factions may indeed make a difference. This leads the authors to suggest that ‘the burgeoning field of theoretical and empirical work on party change should focus even more attention on internal decision‐making processes’.

Party actors and party change: Does factional dominance matter?

. Other works have asked whether parties matter; this article asks whether parties’ dominant factions matter. Special focus is placed on whether change in dominant faction or coalition within the party tends to produce other significant party change, and under what circumstances. Three specific hypotheses are developed and tested, one involving motivation for change and the other two involving ‘resources’ which are necessary to make dramatic change possible. Empirical analysis rests upon original data covering seven changes in dominant faction and several dimensions of party change within five parties in the United Kingdom and Germany for the period 1950 to 1990. The authors conclude that not all of the hypothesized factors have equal impact on degree of party change, with ability of the newly dominant faction to control its coalition being primary.

Left Turn in Europe? Reactions to Austerity and the EMU

Several important changes have occurred in the European Union (EU) over the course of the last decade. In particular, the Maastricht Treaty criteria for entry into the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) brought economic austerity across the member states, in spite of high levels of unemployment in the region. At the same time an electoral shift resulted in parties of the left holding government positions in 13 of 15 member states, a marked contrast to the recent past. We examine if recent electoral fluctuations can be attributed to the traditional explanations of economic voting and anti-incumbency or if there is evidence of a fundamental shift in the electoral arena following the passage of the Maastricht Treaty Using pooled cross-sectional data for the years 1983-1998, we find that for both EMU members and non-members traditional forces help explain electoral outcomes, however an indicator for the squeeze of the post-Maastricht time period also plays a significant role. While left parties have fared well in the post-Maastricht period, the strong, negative effect of incumbency, persistent unemployment, and an overall increase in electoral volatility make any conclusions of a left tum in the member states of the EU premature. Rather, it is likely left parties will find themselves faced with the difficult task of maintaining support while abiding by the constraints imposed by the Maastricht Treaty.

Manufacturing Parties Re-examining the Transient Nature of Philippine Political Parties

In this article we reassess the thesis of Lipset and Rokkan in a non-European context and thereby seek to contribute to the understanding of the relationship between social divisions and party creation. Political parties are usually generated by the politicization of social cleavages that exist within societies. The critical question is why certain divisions become politicized and others do not. Using the Philippines as a case study, we seek to explain how acute social dissensions could fail to give rise to competitive political parties. We contend that certain institutional forms could significantly influence whether social conflicts are translated into political form.

Political Choices and Economic Outcomes A Perspective on the Differential Impact of the Financial Crisis on South Korea and Taiwan

South Korea and Taiwan have gone through similar experience of political and economic development in the past several decades. Both countries have achieved miraculous economic developments under the government-led development paradigm and have gone through democratization process in the 1990s. Despite the similarity in developing history, the 1997 financial crisis experiences are quite different between the two countries. South Korea was hit hard by the crisis, whereas the crisis barely touched Taiwan. What caused the difference? The authors argue that the difference in the impacts of the crisis and the resulting outcomes on South Korea and Taiwan is a result of existing political and economic institutions and structures and the choices that were made within those institutions. They support this argument by using institutional explanation, such as growth strategy, market liberalization, and political development.

Party Change and Party Membership Decline An Exploratory Analysis

What is the impact of declining party membership size on party organizations? Since existing theory is constructed with the expansion of party membership in mind, one might infer that the relationships observed during periods of growth can simply be reversed in periods of decline; i.e. declining party membership size will lead to declining complexity and decentralization of power. However, there is no a priori reason for us to expect this relationship to be true. The paper present a dynamic theory that explains why complexity and centralization of power remain unchanged despite declining membership. Using time-series data from the Party Change Project and the Party Organizations Project, the author provides systematic tests of the impact of declining party membership size. The empirical findings suggest that the impacts of declining party membership size may affect complexity and centralization of power for some but not all parties.

The Strategic Logic of Taiwanization

n Taiwan, since the early 1990s, Taiwanese identity has rapidly supplanted Chinese identity. This has pushed all the main political parties to adopt policies favorable to the new identity, and brought the Democratic Progres sive Party to power. Rising Taiwanese identity has also affected military strategies. It has accelerated the cross-strait arms race by alarm ing Beijing, which in turn has led to an offset ting buildup in Taiwan. It has also strengthened Taiwans will to retain her independence and, thereby, led to newer, more unconventional defense strategies. One such policy is to enhance the ideological legitimacy of Tai wanese nationalism in the United States and Japan. Another policy is to embrace economic integration with China-a development hitherto seen as threatening. A third policy is to deter a Chinese attack by credibly committing Taiwan and its allies to a more dogged fight to preserve Taiwanese independence, even under condi tions where such a fight seems hopeless. Finally, a strong Taiwanese identity makes it more likely that Chinas increasing conventional military predominance will ultimately call forth a Tai wanese nuclear deterrent. National identity and political development: A distinctly Taiwanese national identity unfolded rapidly following Taiwans democratization in the late 1980s. This process can be seen in many areas of Taiwans culture and politics. Consider the changes over time in the familiar polls asking if people identify themselves as Taiwanese, Chi nese, or both. From 1992 to 2004, those that con sider themselves to be only Taiwanese rose from 17.3 percent in 1992, to around 25 percent in the mid-1990s, to around 40 percent from 1999 to the present; whereas those that self-identify exclusively as Chinese fell from about 26 per cent in the early 1.990s, to around 20 percent in the mid-1990s, to a bit over 10 percent in late 2001, to 6.3 percent in June 2004.1 Since the early 1990s, there has been a corre ponding decline in the fortunes of Taiwans tra itional rul g party, the Kuomintang (KMT). The KMT, which continued to rule Taiwan after being driven f m the mainland in 1949, long presided over an authoritarian regime commit ted to eunification with China under a noncom

Emerging Party Systems An Introduction

Lipset and Rokkan’s seminal work suggests that European party systems emerged as a reflection of the cleavage structures in society. Despite general acceptance of the importance of sociological factors for the development of party systems, new scholarship is beginning to uncover other factors beyond the conventional focus on social divisions and electoral rules (Chhibber and Kollman, 2004). Far from being fixed and static, party systems are dynamic and responsive to changes in their operating environments. But what factors contribute to the emergence of new national party systems? Do existing cleavages and institutions matter to the formation of political party systems? How do parties emerge in new party systems? Together, the studies reported in this special issue seek to provide answers to these questions and stimulate further research. The articles reflect the variety of research that has recently been done on the topic. From cross-regional work to country studies, across quantitative and qualitative approaches, the common theme is the contribution made to explaining how parties emerge and what factors affect the development of national party systems. Robert E. Bohrer II and Glen S. Krutz start the issue with an analysis of the newly devolved party systems in the UK. They draw attention to a number of interesting findings. First, the implementation of Proportional Representation has led to larger party systems in the devolved institutions, both at the elective and parliamentary levels. While some of the difference between national and sub-national party systems may be due to the change in venue and different cleavage structures, there is a distinct, independent effect of the electoral rules. Additionally, the centre–periphery cleavage has emerged in the devolved settings as more relevant than at the UK level. Even in Northern Ireland, where the republican–unionist divide already dominated, the cleavage has added importance as the proand anti-Agreement issues have divided parties in the system. Finally, the different contexts and electoral rules at the sub-national level have resulted in more complex, multiparty environments. Government formation diverges in all three devolved settings from the British norm of single-party government. Uk Heo and Hans Stockton examine the emergence of party politics in South Korea since the country became democratic in the late 1980s. They PA R T Y P O L I T I C S V O L 1 1 . N o . 6 pp. 651–653

The Politics of Financial Reform in Taiwan: Actors, Institutions, and the Changing State

Abstract The changes to the developmental state resulting from Taiwans political liberalization and democratization have created a complex political-economic decision-making landscape that has affected the process of financial reforms. In this article, the author examines the impact that the changes in the nature of the Taiwanese state, institutions, and the increase in the number of important political actors have on financial liberalization and reforms that have been undertaken thus far, providing a theoretical framework to explain how institutional changes, the interactions of political actors, and changes in incentives in the political system can help one understand the politics of financial reform. Using this theoretical framework, the author examines the application of the theory to the Taiwan case in depth.

The December 1998 elections in Taiwan

Abstract The 5 December 1998 elections in Taiwan mark the first time that the national city mayoral elections and Legislative Yuan elections were held simultaneously. There was an increase in the number of candidates and seats for the Legislative Yuan election compared to the 1995 election; the Legislative Yuan sits for a three-year term. The mayoral elections in Taipei and Kaoshiung were the second direct popular elections featuring two well-known incumbents and two tough challengers vying for the four-year post. All Taiwanese elections in the 1990s were seen as referendums on the fate of the long-ruling Kuomintang, but many political commentators saw the 1999 elections as a ‘dress rehearsal’ for the presidential election in 2000.