Alexander Correa-Metrio

Re-evaluation of Climate Change in Lowland Central America During the Last Glacial Maximum Using New Sediment Cores from Lake Petén Itzá, Guatemala

Glaciological data derived from moraines, and multiproxy data from lake sediment cores (e.g. fossil pollen, diatoms, and isotope data) indicate cooling in the Central American tropics during the last ice age. Contrary to prior inferences, however, new lake core data from Lake Peten Itza, lowland Guatemala, indicate that climate was not particularly dry on the Yucatan Peninsula during the last glacial maximum (LGM) chronozone, around 23,000–19,000 cal. yr BP. We present pollen and lithologic data from Lake Peten Itza and an improved chronology for climate changes in lowland Central America over the last 25,000 years. The driest period of the last glaciation was not the LGM, but rather the deglacial period (∼18,000–11,000 cal. yr BP). Causes of climate shifts during the last glaciation are ascribed to precessional changes in insolation, the position of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone, and southward penetration of polar air masses.

Impacts of climate variability and human colonization on the vegetation of the Galápagos Islands.

A high-resolution (2-9 year sampling interval) fossil pollen record from the Galápagos Islands, which spans the last 2690 years, reveals considerable ecosystem stability. Vegetation changes associated with independently derived histories of El Niño Southern Oscillation variability provided evidence of shifts in the relative abundance of individual species rather than immigration or extinction. Droughts associated with the Medieval Climate Anomaly induced rapid ecological change that was followed by a reversion to the previous state. The paleoecological data suggested nonneutral responses to climatic forcing in this ecosystem prior to the period of human influence. Human impacts on the islands are evident in the record. A marked decline in long-term codominants of the pollen record, Alternanthera and Acalypha, produced a flora without modern analogue before 1930. Intensified animal husbandry after ca. 1930 may have induced the local extinction of Acalypha and Alternanthera. Reductions in populations of grazing animals in the 1970s and 1980s did not result in the return of the native flora, but in invasions by exotic species. After ca. 1970 the trajectory of habitat change accelerated, continuously moving the ecosystem away from the observed range of variability in the previous 2690 years toward a novel ecosystem. The last 40 years of the record also suggest unprecedented transport of lowland pollen to the uplands, consistent with intensified convection and warmer wet seasons.

Millennial-Scale Ecological Changes in Tropical South America Since the Last Glacial Maximum

An analysis of rates of ecological change (RoC) from thirteen pollen records from tropical South America is presented here. The analysis aims to identify the periods of fastest change since the last glacial maximum (LGM) and possible driving mechanisms. Despite rapid cooling periods, region-wide profound droughts, fire and human disturbances, RoC analysis showed that the speed of these climate changes never exceed the species response capabilities. Our results legitimize concerns regarding the resilience of species to accommodate future change and emphasize the urgency for integrative environmental measures.

Pollen distribution along climatic and biogeographic gradients in northern Central America

Environmental reconstructions based on fossil pollen rely on the understanding of modern pollen distribution along climatic and biogeographic gradients. This study analyses the modern pollen spectra of Central America using three basic approaches: (1) the evaluation of using modern pollen spectra to differentiate the main vegetation types of the region, (2) the usage of non-linear regression to predict individual pollen abundances as a function of climate, and (3) the construction of pollen—climate transfer functions. Standard pollen analysis was carried out on mud—water interface samples from 81 lakes in the Yucatan Peninsula and adjacent mountains of Guatemala and Mexico. Detrended correspondence and cluster analyses were used to evaluate the biogeographic patterns revealed by this modern pollen data set. Non-parametric locally weighted scatterplot smoothing (LOESS) regression was used to construct pollen—climate functional relationships. Five modern vegetation types were clearly identifiable through their associated pollen spectra: Pinus forest, Quercus forest, mountain mesophyllous forest, tropical rainforest, and tropical seasonal forest. The last group includes three subcategories (evergreen seasonal, tropical semi-deciduous, and tropical deciduous forests), which were not separable via this analysis. Precipitation and temperature trends were consistent and robust for at least 28 and 30 taxa, respectively, in the LOESS regression. While floristic patterns driven by temperature were clearly reflected by the pollen spectra, those driven by precipitation were less sharply defined. Nevertheless, pollen data from the study area offered good resolution to identify broad biogeographic patterns. Furthermore, individual taxa showed high predictability along precipitation and temperature gradients, allowing the theoretical construction of pollen—climate transfer functions. This study provided valuable tools for the interpretation of fossil pollen sequences from Central America.

Millennial-Scale Temperature Change Velocity in the Continental Northern Neotropics

Climate has been inherently linked to global diversity patterns, and yet no empirical data are available to put modern climate change into a millennial-scale context. High tropical species diversity has been linked to slow rates of climate change during the Quaternary, an assumption that lacks an empirical foundation. Thus, there is the need for quantifying the velocity at which the bioclimatic space changed during the Quaternary in the tropics. Here we present rates of climate change for the late Pleistocene and Holocene from Mexico and Guatemala. An extensive modern pollen survey and fossil pollen data from two long sedimentary records (30,000 and 86,000 years for highlands and lowlands, respectively) were used to estimate past temperatures. Derived temperature profiles show a parallel long-term trend and a similar cooling during the Last Glacial Maximum in the Guatemalan lowlands and the Mexican highlands. Temperature estimates and digital elevation models were used to calculate the velocity of isotherm displacement (temperature change velocity) for the time period contained in each record. Our analyses showed that temperature change velocities in Mesoamerica during the late Quaternary were at least four times slower than values reported for the last 50 years, but also at least twice as fast as those obtained from recent models. Our data demonstrate that, given extremely high temperature change velocities, species survival must have relied on either microrefugial populations or persistence of suppressed individuals. Contrary to the usual expectation of stable climates being associated with high diversity, our results suggest that Quaternary tropical diversity was probably maintained by centennial-scale oscillatory climatic variability that forestalled competitive exclusion. As humans have simplified modern landscapes, thereby removing potential microrefugia, and climate change is occurring monotonically at a very high velocity, extinction risk for tropical species is higher than at any time in the last 86,000 years.