Alexander M. Kulminski

Cumulative Deficits Better Characterize Susceptibility to Death in Elderly People than Phenotypic Frailty: Lessons from the Cardiovascular Health Study

OBJECTIVES: To compare how well frailty measures based on a phenotypic frailty approach proposed in the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS) and a cumulative deficits approach predict mortality.

Effect of the APOE Polymorphism and Age Trajectories of Physiological Variables on Mortality: Application of Genetic Stochastic Process Model of Aging

We evaluated effects of the APOE polymorphism (carriers versus noncarriers of the e4 allele) and age trajectories of total cholesterol (CH) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) on mortality risk in the Framingham Heart Study (original cohort). We found that long-lived carriers and noncarriers have different average age trajectories and long-lived individuals have consistently higher levels and less steep declines at old ages compared to short-lived individuals. We applied the stochastic process model of aging aimed at joint analyses of genetic and nongenetic subsamples of longitudinal data and estimated different aging-related characteristics for carriers and noncarriers which otherwise cannot be evaluated from data. We found that such characteristics differ in carriers and noncarriers: (1) carriers have better adaptive capacity than noncarriers in case of CH, whereas for DBP the opposite situation is observed; (2) mean allostatic trajectories are higher in carriers and they differ from “optimal” trajectories minimizing mortality risk; (3) noncarriers have lower baseline mortality rates at younger ages but they increase faster than those for carriers resulting in intersection at the oldest ages. Such observations strongly indicate the presence of a genetic component in respective aging-related mechanisms. Such differences may contribute to patterns of allele- and sex-specific mortality rates.

Body Mass Index and Nine-Year Mortality in Disabled and Nondisabled Older U.S. Individuals

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the relationship between body mass index (BMI) and 9‐year mortality in older (≥65) Americans with and without disability.

Cumulative Index of Health Deficiencies as a Characteristic of Long Life

OBJECTIVES: To describe the accumulation of aging‐associated health disorders using a cumulative measure known as a frailty index (FI) and to evaluate its ability to differentiate long‐ and short‐life phenotypes as well as the FIs connection to aging‐associated processes in older people.

ROS Effects on Neurodegeneration in Alzheimers Disease and Related Disorders: On Environmental Stresses of Ionizing Radiation

Neurodegenerative processes associated with Alzheimers disease are complex and involve many CNS tissue types, structures and biochemical processes. Factors believed involved in these processes are generation of Reactive Oxygen Species (ROS), associated inflammatory responses, and the bio-molecular and genetic damage they produce. Since oxidative processes are essential to energy production, and to other biological functions, such as cell signaling, the process is not one of risk exposure, as for cigarettes and cancer, but one where normal physiological processes operate out of normal ranges and without adequate control. Thus, it is necessary to study the ambiphilicity that allows the same molecule (e.g., beta amyloid) to behave in contradictory ways depending upon the physiological microenvironment. To determine ways to study this in human populations we review evidence on the effects of an exogenous generator of ROS, ionizing radiation, in major population events with radionuclides (e.g., Hiroshima and Nagasaki; Chernobyl Reactor accident; environmental contamination in Chelyabinsk (South Urals) where plutonium was produced, and in the nuclear weapons test area in Semipalatinsk, Kazakhstan). The age evolution, and traits, of neurodegenerative processes in human populations in these areas, may help us understand how IR affects the CNS. After reviewing human population evidence, we propose a model of neurodegeneration based upon the complexity of CNS functions.

Trade-off in the effects of the apolipoprotein E polymorphism on the ages at onset of CVD and cancer influences human lifespan

Progress in unraveling the genetic origins of healthy aging is tempered, in part, by a lack of replication of effects, which is often considered a signature of false‐positive findings. We convincingly demonstrate that the lack of genetic effects on an aging‐related trait can be because of trade‐offs in the gene action. We focus on the well‐studied apolipoprotein E (APOE) e2/3/4 polymorphism and on lifespan and ages at onset of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and cancer, using data on 3924 participants of the Framingham Heart Study Offspring cohort. Kaplan–Meier estimates show that the e4 allele carriers live shorter lives than the non‐e4 allele carriers (log rank = 0.016). The adverse effect was attributed to the poor survival of the e4 homozygotes, whereas the effect of the common e3/4 genotype was insignificant. The e3/4 genotype, however, was antagonistically associated with onsets of those diseases predisposing to an earlier onset of CVD and a later onset of cancer compared to the non‐e4 allele genotypes. This trade‐off explains the lack of a significant effect of the e3/4 genotype on survival; adjustment for it in the Cox regression model makes the detrimental effect of the e4 allele highly significant (P = 0.002). This trade‐off is likely caused by the lipid‐metabolism‐related (for CVD) and nonrelated (for cancer) mechanisms. An evolutionary rationale suggests that genetic trade‐offs should not be an exception in studies of aging‐related traits. Deeper insights into biological mechanisms mediating gene action are critical for understanding the genetic regulation of a healthy lifespan and for personalizing medical care.

Exceptional survivors have lower age trajectories of blood glucose: lessons from longitudinal data

Exceptional survival results from complicated interplay between genetic and environmental factors. The effects of these factors on survival are mediated by the biological and physiological variables, which affect mortality risk. In this paper, we evaluated the role of blood glucose (BG) in exceptional survival using the Framingham heart study data for the main (FHS) and offspring (FHSO) cohorts. We found that: (1) the average cross-sectional age patterns of BG change over time; (2) the values of BG level among the longest lived individuals in this study differ for different sub-cohorts; (3) the longitudinal age patterns of BG differ from those of cross-sectional ones. We investigated mechanisms forming average age trajectories of BG in the FHS cohort. We found that the two curves: one, characterizing the average effects of allostatic adaptation, and another, minimizing mortality risk for any given age, play the central role in this process. We found that the average BG age trajectories for exceptional survivors are closer to the curve minimizing mortality risk than those of individuals having shorter life spans. We concluded that individuals whose age trajectories of BG are located around the curve minimizing chances of premature death at each given age have highest chances of reaching exceptional longevity.

Trade-off between cancer and aging: what role do other diseases play? Evidence from experimental and human population studies.

The potential gain in life expectancy which could result from the complete elimination of mortality from cancer in the U.S. would not exceed 3 years if one were to consider cancer independently of other causes of death. In this paper, we review evidence of trade-offs between cancer and aging as well as between cancer and other diseases, which, if taken into account, may substantially increase estimates of gain in life expectancy resulting from cancer eradication. We also used the Multiple Causes of Death (MCD) data to evaluate correlations among mortalities from cancer and other major disorders including heart disease, stroke, diabetes, Alzheimers, Parkinsons diseases, and asthma. Our analyses revealed significant negative correlations between cancer and other diseases suggesting stronger population effects of cancer eradication. Possible mechanisms of the observed dependencies and emerging perspectives of using dependent competing risks models for evaluating the effects of reduction of mortality from cancer on life expectancy are discussed.

How lifespan associated genes modulate aging changes: lessons from analysis of longitudinal data.

Background and Objective: The influence of genes on human lifespan is mediated by biological processes that characterize bodys functioning. The age trajectories of these processes contain important information about mechanisms linking aging, health, and lifespan. The objective of this paper is to investigate regularities of aging changes in different groups of individuals, including individuals with different genetic background, as well as their connections with health and lifespan. Data and Method: To reach this objective we used longitudinal data on four physiological variables, information about health and lifespan collected in the Framingham Heart Study (FHS), data on longevity alleles detected in earlier study, as well as methods of statistical modeling. Results: We found that phenotypes of exceptional longevity and health are linked to distinct types of changes in physiological indices during aging. We also found that components of aging changes differ in groups of individuals with different genetic background. Conclusions: These results suggest that factors responsible for exceptional longevity and health are not necessary the same, and that postponing aging changes is associated with extreme longevity. The genetic factors which increase lifespan are associated with physiological changes typical of healthy and long-living individuals, smaller mortality risks from cancer and CVD and better estimates of adaptive capacity in statistical modeling. This indicates that extreme longevity and health related traits are likely to be less heterogeneous phenotypes than lifespan, and studying these phenotypes separately from lifespan may provide additional information about mechanisms of human aging and its relation to chronic diseases and lifespan.

Trade-Offs Between Cancer and Other Diseases: Do They Exist and Influence Longevity?

Relationships between aging, disease risks, and longevity are not yet well understood. For example, joint increases in cancer risk and total survival observed in many human populations and some experimental aging studies may be linked to a trade-off between cancer and aging as well as to the trade-off(s) between cancer and other diseases, and their relative impact is not clear. While the former trade-off (between cancer and aging) received broad attention in aging research, the latter one lacks respective studies, although its understanding is important for developing optimal strategies of increasing both longevity and healthy life span. In this paper, we explore the possibility of trade-offs between risks of cancer and selected major disorders. First, we review current literature suggesting that the trade-offs between cancer and other diseases may exist and be linked to the differential intensity of apoptosis. Then we select relevant disorders for the analysis (acute coronary heart disease [ACHD], stroke, asthma, and Alzheimer disease [AD]) and calculate the risk of cancer among individuals with each of these disorders, and vice versa, using the Framingham Study (5209 individuals) and the National Long Term Care Survey (NLTCS) (38,214 individuals) data. We found a reduction in cancer risk among old (80+) men with stroke and in risk of ACHD among men (50+) with cancer in the Framingham Study. We also found an increase in ACHD and stroke among individuals with cancer, and a reduction in cancer risk among women with AD in the NLTCS. The manifestation of trade-offs between risks of cancer and other diseases thus depended on sex, age, and study population. We discuss factors modulating the potential trade-offs between major disorders in populations, e.g., disease treatments. Further study is needed to clarify possible impact of such trade-offs on longevity.