Alexander P. Boone

Non-expert interpretations of hurricane forecast uncertainty visualizations

Uncertainty represented in visualizations is often ignored or misunderstood by the non-expert user. The National Hurricane Center displays hurricane forecasts using a track forecast cone, depicting the expected track of the storm and the uncertainty in the forecast. Our goal was to test whether different graphical displays of a hurricane forecast containing uncertainty would influence a decision about storm characteristics. Participants viewed one of five different visualization types. Three varied the currently used forecast cone, one presented a track with no uncertainty, and one presented an ensemble of multiple possible hurricane tracks. Results show that individuals make different decisions using uncertainty visualizations with different visual properties, demonstrating that basic visual properties must be considered in visualization design and communication.

Sex Differences in Mental Rotation Tasks: Not Just in the Mental Rotation Process!.

The paper-and-pencil Mental Rotation Test (Vandenberg & Kuse, 1978) consistently produces large sex differences favoring men (Voyer, Voyer, & Bryden, 1995). In this task, participants select 2 of 4 answer choices that are rotations of a probe stimulus. Incorrect choices (i.e., foils) are either mirror reflections of the probe or structurally different. In contrast, in the mental rotation experimental task (Shepard & Metzler, 1971) participants judge whether 2 stimuli are the same but rotated or different by mirror reflection. The goal of the present research was to examine sources of sex differences in mental rotation, including the ability to capitalize on the availability of structure foils. In 2 experiments, both men and women had greater accuracy and faster reaction times (RTs) for structurally different compared with mirror foils in different versions of the Vandenberg and Kuse Mental Rotation Test (Experiment 1) and the Shepard and Metzler experimental task (Experiment 2). A significant male advantage in accuracy but not response time was found for both trial types. The male advantage was evident when all foils were structure foils so that mental rotation was not necessary (Experiment 3); however, when all foils were structure foils and participants were instructed to look for structure foils a significant sex difference was no longer evident (Experiment 4). Results suggest that the mental rotation process is not the only source of the sex difference in mental rotation tasks. Alternative strategy use is another source of sex differences in these tasks.

Uncertainty Visualization by Representative Sampling from Prediction Ensembles

Data ensembles are often used to infer statistics to be used for a summary display of an uncertain prediction. In a spatial context, these summary displays have the drawback that when uncertainty is encoded via a spatial spread, display glyph area increases in size with prediction uncertainty. This increase can be easily confounded with an increase in the size, strength or other attribute of the phenomenon being presented. We argue that by directly displaying a carefully chosen subset of a prediction ensemble, so that uncertainty is conveyed implicitly, such misinterpretations can be avoided. Since such a display does not require uncertainty annotation, an information channel remains available for encoding additional information about the prediction. We demonstrate these points in the context of hurricane prediction visualizations, showing how we avoid occlusion of selected ensemble elements while preserving the spatial statistics of the original ensemble, and how an explicit encoding of uncertainty can also be constructed from such a selection. We conclude with the results of a cognitive experiment demonstrating that the approach can be used to construct storm prediction displays that significantly reduce the confounding of uncertainty with storm size, and thus improve viewers’ ability to estimate potential for storm damage.

Sex differences in navigation strategy and efficiency

Research on human navigation has indicated that males and females differ in self-reported navigation strategy as well as objective measures of navigation efficiency. In two experiments, we investigated sex differences in navigation strategy and efficiency using an objective measure of strategy, the dual-solution paradigm (DSP; Marchette, Bakker, & Shelton, 2011). Although navigation by shortcuts and learned routes were the primary strategies used in both experiments, as in previous research on the DSP, individuals also utilized route reversals and sometimes found the goal location as a result of wandering. Importantly, sex differences were found in measures of both route selection and navigation efficiency. In particular, males were more likely to take shortcuts and reached their goal location faster than females, while females were more likely to follow learned routes and wander. Self-report measures of strategy were only weakly correlated with objective measures of strategy, casting doubt on their usefulness. This research indicates that the sex difference in navigation efficiency is large, and only partially related to an individual’s navigation strategy as measured by the dual-solution paradigm.

Explicit versus actionable knowledge: The influence of explaining graphical conventions on interpretation of hurricane forecast visualizations.

Visualizations of uncertainty in data are often presented to the public without explanations of their graphical conventions and are often misunderstood by nonexperts. The “cone of uncertainty” used to visualize hurricane forecasts is a case in point. Here we examined the effects of explaining graphical conventions on understanding of the cone of uncertainty. In two experiments, participants were given instructions with and without an explanation of these graphical conventions. We examined the effect of these instructions on both explicit statements of common misconceptions and users interpretation of hurricane forecasts, specifically their predictions of damage from the hurricane over space and time. Enhanced instructions reduced misconceptions about the cone of uncertainty as expressed in explicit beliefs, and in one experiment also reduced predictions of damage overall. Examination of individual response profiles for the damage estimate task revealed qualitative differences between individuals that were not evident in aggregate response profiles. This research reveals mixed results for the effectiveness of instructions on comprehension of uncertainty visualizations and suggests a more nuanced approach that focuses on the individual’s knowledge and beliefs about the domain and visualization.

Sonifying data uncertainty with sound dimensions

ABSTRACT The communication of data uncertainty is a crucial problem in data science, information visualization, and geographic information science (GIScience). Effective ways to communicate the uncertainty of data enables data consumers to interpret the data as intended by the producer, reducing the possibilities of misinterpretation. In this article, we report on an empirical investigation of how sound can be used to convey information about data uncertainty in an intuitive way. To answer the research question How intuitive are sound dimensions to communicate uncertainty? we carry out a cognitive experiment, where participants were asked to interpret the certainty/uncertainty level in two sounds A and B (N = 33). We produce sound stimuli by varying sound dimensions, including loudness, duration, location, pitch, register, attack, decay, rate of change, noise, timbre, clarity, order, and harmony. In the stimuli, both synthetic and natural sounds are used to allow comparison. The experiment results identify three sound dimensions (loudness, order, and clarity) as significantly more intuitive to communicate uncertainty, providing guidelines for sonification and information visualization practitioners.

On the Use of Response Chunking as a Tool to Investigate Strategies

In this perspective we suggest that chunking can be used as an investigative tool to determine the characteristics of other cognitive phenomena. We present an example of the usefulness of chunking multiple responses to aid in understanding object switch costs. Switch costs refer to the shorter response times for manipulation of the same item on two trials in a row compared to a switch between items. It is presently unclear if this result is due to structural or strategic processes. We provide a short review of past literature on switch costs and a proof-of-concept example that chunking may shed new light on this topic. We examined this question with boxes filled with numbers to be arithmetically updated and memorized. A situation in which there were two response items to be manipulated per trial eliminated or reversed the switch cost effect. We suggest that participants use a strategy in which the two output responses were chunked together, making it unfeasible to prepare separately for a repetition of the most recent item as participants do in other circumstances. Our data suggest that even a well-studied phenomenon can benefit theoretically from the use of chunking as a research tool.