Alexander Plekhanov

How Should Subnational Government Borrowing Be Regulated? Some Cross-Country Empirical Evidence

Countries have adopted various institutional responses to subnational government borrowing. Using a sample of 44 countries 1982-2000, this paper provides a panel data analysis to determine the most effective borrowing constraints for containing local fiscal deficits. The results suggest that no single institutional arrangement is superior under all circumstances. The appropriateness of specific arrangements depends upon other institutional characteristics, particularly the degree of vertical fiscal imbalance, the existence of any bailout precedent, and the quality of fiscal reporting.

Fiscal Adjustments : Determinants and Macroeconomic Consequences

The paper analyzes the determinants of success of recent fiscal consolidations in the OECD countries as well as the short-run and long-run effects of fiscal adjustments on economic activity by looking at fourteen case studies, panel data for OECD countries, and the results of simulations using a non-Ricardian multi-country dynamic general equilibrium model. The study finds that while fiscal consolidations tend to have short-run contractionary effects, they can be expansionary in the long run, provided that they do not rely excessively on cuts in productive government expenditure. They can also create positive spillover effects for the rest of the world.

Relative Price Stability, Creditor Rights, and Financial Deepening

The paper provides a theoretical and cross-country empirical analysis of the determinants of financial deepening, and finds that higher credit-to-GDP ratios are associated with stronger creditor rights and lower inflation, and that the marginal effect of improvements in creditor rights protection is declining as the rate of inflation increases. The analysis suggests that in a high inflation environment, controlling inflation and reducing macroeconomic volatility should be given priority. Once these goals are achieved, the focus of attention should shift to creditor rights protection and credit information management.

Fiscal Decentralization and the Quality of Public Services in Russian Regions

The paper provides empirical analysis of the relationship between fiscal decentralisation and the quality of public services in the Russian regions. The analysis suggests that fiscal decentralisation has no significant effect on the key inputs into secondary education, such as schools, computers, or availability of pre-schooling, but has a significant positive effect on average examination results, controlling for key observable inputs and regional government spending on education. Decentralisation also has a positive impact on the quality of municipal utilities provision. Both effects can be attributed to strengthened fiscal incentives rather than to superior productive efficiency of municipal governments.

Development Based on Commodity Revenues

Commodity resources offer significant opportunities for development. In the long run, however, the performance of commodity - rich countries tends to fall short of expectations, as commodity rents induce macroeconomic volatility and undermine incentives to improve institutions. The resource - rich countries have embraced a range of diversification strategies to avoid the “resource trap”, to varying degrees and with varying success. Improving institutions remains the key challenge.

How much do tariffs matter? Evidence from the customs union of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia

This paper provides an empirical analysis of the early impact of the formation of the customs union of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia, and associated changes in import schedules on the structure of imports. Relying on an original data-set of statutory tariffs we find that trade creation effects were significant only in trade between Russia and third countries, but that there was some trade destruction, with a significant negative impact on imports from China to Kazakhstan and Russia, and on imports from the EU to Belarus. However, the magnitude of this effect is relatively small, suggesting that the benefits of the new tariff policy per se are limited at best.

Customs Union and Kazakhstan's Imports

The paper provides an empirical analysis of the early impact of formation of the customs union of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia and associated changes in imports schedule on the structure of Kazakhstan’s imports. Trade creation effects appear to have been insignificant. At the same time the change in tariffs appears to have created some trade diversion, with a significantly negative impact on imports from China in particular and a significantly positive impact on imports from within the customs union. The magnitude this effect is relatively small, however. The results tentatively suggest that the benefits of the new tariff policy per se to Kazakhstan are limited at best. Larger benefits could come from gradual liberalization of services sectors and market access within the economic union.