Alexandra Hall

Troubled waters: a snapshot of security challenges in the Mediterranean region

Mediterranean Foresight Forum N ew challenges are reshaping the international order, requiring government leaders to consider new strategies and tools that integrate diplomatic, economic and military instruments of power. Nowhere is this more evident than around the Mediterranean Sea, which has progressively returned as a region of global strategic interest where political tensions, armed conflict, economic and social instability and transnational criminal networks demand solutions that cross traditional institutional boundaries of domestic and international policymaking. The geo-political situation on the southern coast of the Medi-terranean has radically changed and new challenges have emerged for the European Union, United States, and beyond. Long-lasting issues such as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, or the tensions between Turkey and Greece, continue to be present, but new destabilising factors have emerged in the region following the Arab Spring of 2011. The US, EU and NATO continue to maintain a significant military presence in and around the Mediterranean, but military capabilities must be nested within a whole-of-government, international approach. The challenges in this region demand unprecedented levels of civil-military and intergovernmental cooperation. In this context, RAND established the Mediterranean Foresight Forum (MFF) in 2015 to support the development of comprehensive , integrated civil-military responses to complex regional challenges through an innovative combination of research, scenario-based sensitivity analysis and strategic-level exercises. This publication is part of a series of four RAND Perspectives (PE) each focusing on different challenges in the Mediterranean region. This PE focuses on Defence and Security. Other PE focus on Foreign Policy and Diplomacy, Criminal Activities and Cross-cutting issues. • Many of the defence and security challenges that exist in the region are multi-faceted, long-standing and ingrained. It is not clear that actors possess the individual or collective will and economic resources needed to support a comprehensive approach to regional conflict. • Given finite political and economic capital, the question arises whether the priority should be reinforcing relative success (e.g. Tunisia) or tackling the worst problems (e.g. Syria, Libya). • The actions of external players in the countries of the Mediterra-nean region, particularly Russia and the US, represent a significant complicating and potentially escalatory factor. • Destroying Islamic State in one country while others remain fragile and violent is likely to see the problem relocate, rather than disappear.

The moral component of cross-domain conflict

RAND Europe is a not-for-profit organisation whose mission is to help improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RANDs publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit R® is a registered trademark. iii Preface This is the final report of a study commissioned by the UK Ministry of Defence (MOD) through the Defence Human Capability Science and Technology Centre (DHCSTC) framework. The study was conducted over a period of six weeks and examines the academic debate pertaining to the moral landscape of conflict that spans different military domains (air, maritime, land, space, cyber). The investigation which is the subject of this report was commissioned by the Programme and Delivery Directorate of the Defence Science and Technology Laboratory (Dstl). RAND Europe is an independent, not-for-profit policy research organisation that aims to improve policy and decision-making in the public interest through research and analysis. RAND Europes clients include European governments, institutions, NGOs and other organisations with a need for rigorous, independent, interdisciplinary analysis. Abstract This study was commissioned to examine the academic debate pertaining to the moral landscape of cross-domain conflict (i.e. a conflict that spans two or more military domains (land, maritime, air, cyber, space)). The study: considers the body of work on morality and armed conflict in the future operating environment; provides insights on the ways in which new ways of fighting may challenge traditional moral principles; and identifies areas that may be underexplored in the body of work on morality or may merit further analysis. The study considered two emerging technologies (cyber and autonomous systems) to derive practical insights on the ways in which new technologies could challenge traditional thinking about morality. The work involved a systematic review of relevant literature, a programme of interviews and a one-day workshop with academic experts. The study finds that: the majority view among consulted experts was that existing moral frameworks and principles continue to apply; there is a …

Human and Organisational Factors in Major Accident Prevention: A Snapshot of the Academic Landscape

A Snapshot of the Academic Landscape RAND Europe is an independent, not-for-profit policy research organisation that aims to improve policy and decisionmaking in the public interest through research and analysis. RANDs publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit Preface This document describes selected findings of a study undertaken in early 2016. The study was intended to enhance understanding within TOTAL E&P Research and Development of the role of human and organisational factors (HOF) in major accident prevention. This document focuses on a core element of this study which provides a succinct examination of the body of academic work on the subject of HOF in major accident causation and prevention. In the wider study, this analysis provided the foundation on which subsequent work was based, namely the identification of lessons identified in other high-hazard sectors-specifically nuclear and aviation-and an examination of oil and gas sector approaches to major accident prevention. However, this report focuses exclusively on the academic landscape and does not include an analysis of industry approaches. The research presented in this document is intended to provide a brief introduction to HOF approaches in academia and should be of interest to industry professionals seeking to build or strengthen academic partnerships, as well as academics specialising in human factors research. RAND Europe is an independent not-for-profit policy research organisation that aims to improve policy and decision-making in the public interest through research and analysis. RAND Europes clients include European governments, institutions, non-governmental organisations and firms with a need for rigorous, independent, multidisciplinary analysis. ii Acknowledgements In conducting this study the research team owes a debt of gratitude to the many people who provided their time, advice and support throughout the process. The team is particularly grateful to Bertrand LeJay, Xavier Watremez and Emmanuelle Charton at TOTAL who, in addition to sponsoring this study, have provided numerous contacts, engaged in dialogue as the study progressed and contributed valuable …