Alexandre Bouchard-Côté

PyClone: statistical inference of clonal population structure in cancer

We introduce PyClone, a statistical model for inference of clonal population structures in cancers. PyClone is a Bayesian clustering method for grouping sets of deeply sequenced somatic mutations into putative clonal clusters while estimating their cellular prevalences and accounting for allelic imbalances introduced by segmental copy-number changes and normal-cell contamination. Single-cell sequencing validation demonstrates PyClones accuracy.

An End-to-End Discriminative Approach to Machine Translation

We present a perceptron-style discriminative approach to machine translation in which large feature sets can be exploited. Unlike discriminative reranking approaches, our system can take advantage of learned features in all stages of decoding. We first discuss several challenges to error-driven discriminative approaches. In particular, we explore different ways of updating parameters given a training example. We find that making frequent but smaller updates is preferable to making fewer but larger updates. Then, we discuss an array of features and show both how they quantitatively increase BLEU score and how they qualitatively interact on specific examples. One particular feature we investigate is a novel way to introduce learning into the initial phrase extraction process, which has previously been entirely heuristic.

Sampling Alignment Structure under a Bayesian Translation Model

We describe the first tractable Gibbs sampling procedure for estimating phrase pair frequencies under a probabilistic model of phrase alignment. We propose and evaluate two nonparametric priors that successfully avoid the degenerate behavior noted in previous work, where overly large phrases memorize the training data. Phrase table weights learned under our model yield an increase in BLEU score over the word-alignment based heuristic estimates used regularly in phrase-based translation systems.

Divergent modes of clonal spread and intraperitoneal mixing in high-grade serous ovarian cancer

We performed phylogenetic analysis of high-grade serous ovarian cancers (68 samples from seven patients), identifying constituent clones and quantifying their relative abundances at multiple intraperitoneal sites. Through whole-genome and single-nucleus sequencing, we identified evolutionary features including mutation loss, convergence of the structural genome and temporal activation of mutational processes that patterned clonal progression. We then determined the precise clonal mixtures comprising each tumor sample. The majority of sites were clonally pure or composed of clones from a single phylogenetic clade. However, each patient contained at least one site composed of polyphyletic clones. Five patients exhibited monoclonal and unidirectional seeding from the ovary to intraperitoneal sites, and two patients demonstrated polyclonal spread and reseeding. Our findings indicate that at least two distinct modes of intraperitoneal spread operate in clonal dissemination and highlight the distribution of migratory potential over clonal populations comprising high-grade serous ovarian cancers.

Automated reconstruction of ancient languages using probabilistic models of sound change

One of the oldest problems in linguistics is reconstructing the words that appeared in the protolanguages from which modern languages evolved. Identifying the forms of these ancient languages makes it possible to evaluate proposals about the nature of language change and to draw inferences about human history. Protolanguages are typically reconstructed using a painstaking manual process known as the comparative method. We present a family of probabilistic models of sound change as well as algorithms for performing inference in these models. The resulting system automatically and accurately reconstructs protolanguages from modern languages. We apply this system to 637 Austronesian languages, providing an accurate, large-scale automatic reconstruction of a set of protolanguages. Over 85% of the system’s reconstructions are within one character of the manual reconstruction provided by a linguist specializing in Austronesian languages. Being able to automatically reconstruct large numbers of languages provides a useful way to quantitatively explore hypotheses about the factors determining which sounds in a language are likely to change over time. We demonstrate this by showing that the reconstructed Austronesian protolanguages provide compelling support for a hypothesis about the relationship between the function of a sound and its probability of changing that was first proposed in 1955.

Phylogenetic Inference via Sequential Monte Carlo

Abstract Bayesian inference provides an appealing general framework for phylogenetic analysis, able to incorporate a wide variety of modeling assumptions and to provide a coherent treatment of uncertainty. Existing computational approaches to Bayesian inference based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) have not, however, kept pace with the scale of the data analysis problems in phylogenetics, and this has hindered the adoption of Bayesian methods. In this paper, we present an alternative to MCMC based on Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC). We develop an extension of classical SMC based on partially ordered sets and show how to apply this framework—which we refer to as PosetSMC—to phylogenetic analysis. We provide a theoretical treatment of PosetSMC and also present experimental evaluation of PosetSMC on both synthetic and real data. The empirical results demonstrate that PosetSMC is a very promising alternative to MCMC, providing up to two orders of magnitude faster convergence. We discuss other factors favorable to the adoption of PosetSMC in phylogenetics, including its ability to estimate marginal likelihoods, its ready implementability on parallel and distributed computing platforms, and the possibility of combining with MCMC in hybrid MCMC–SMC schemes. Software for PosetSMC is available at http://www.stat.ubc.ca/ bouchard/PosetSMC.

Clonal genotype and population structure inference from single-cell tumor sequencing

Single-cell DNA sequencing has great potential to reveal the clonal genotypes and population structure of human cancers. However, single-cell data suffer from missing values and biased allelic counts as well as false genotype measurements owing to the sequencing of multiple cells. We describe the Single Cell Genotyper (https://bitbucket.org/aroth85/scg), an open-source software based on a statistical model coupled with a mean-field variational inference method, which can be used to address these problems and robustly infer clonal genotypes.

The Bouncy Particle Sampler: A Non-Reversible Rejection-Free Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method

ABSTRACT Many Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques currently available rely on discrete-time reversible Markov processes whose transition kernels are variations of the Metropolis–Hastings algorithm. We explore and generalize an alternative scheme recently introduced in the physics literature (Peters and de With 2012) where the target distribution is explored using a continuous-time nonreversible piecewise-deterministic Markov process. In the Metropolis–Hastings algorithm, a trial move to a region of lower target density, equivalently of higher “energy,” than the current state can be rejected with positive probability. In this alternative approach, a particle moves along straight lines around the space and, when facing a high energy barrier, it is not rejected but its path is modified by bouncing against this barrier. By reformulating this algorithm using inhomogeneous Poisson processes, we exploit standard sampling techniques to simulate exactly this Markov process in a wide range of scenarios of interest. Additionally, when the target distribution is given by a product of factors dependent only on subsets of the state variables, such as the posterior distribution associated with a probabilistic graphical model, this method can be modified to take advantage of this structure by allowing computationally cheaper “local” bounces, which only involve the state variables associated with a factor, while the other state variables keep on evolving. In this context, by leveraging techniques from chemical kinetics, we propose several computationally efficient implementations. Experimentally, this new class of Markov chain Monte Carlo schemes compares favorably to state-of-the-art methods on various Bayesian inference tasks, including for high-dimensional models and large datasets. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.

Evolutionary inference via the Poisson Indel Process

We address the problem of the joint statistical inference of phylogenetic trees and multiple sequence alignments from unaligned molecular sequences. This problem is generally formulated in terms of string-valued evolutionary processes along the branches of a phylogenetic tree. The classic evolutionary process, the TKF91 model [Thorne JL, Kishino H, Felsenstein J (1991) J Mol Evol 33(2):114–124] is a continuous-time Markov chain model composed of insertion, deletion, and substitution events. Unfortunately, this model gives rise to an intractable computational problem: The computation of the marginal likelihood under the TKF91 model is exponential in the number of taxa. In this work, we present a stochastic process, the Poisson Indel Process (PIP), in which the complexity of this computation is reduced to linear. The Poisson Indel Process is closely related to the TKF91 model, differing only in its treatment of insertions, but it has a global characterization as a Poisson process on the phylogeny. Standard results for Poisson processes allow key computations to be decoupled, which yields the favorable computational profile of inference under the PIP model. We present illustrative experiments in which Bayesian inference under the PIP model is compared with separate inference of phylogenies and alignments.

Improved Reconstruction of Protolanguage Word Forms

We present an unsupervised approach to reconstructing ancient word forms. The present work addresses three limitations of previous work. First, previous work focused on faithfulness features, which model changes between successive languages. We add markedness features, which model well-formedness within each language. Second, we introduce universal features, which support generalizations across languages. Finally, we increase the number of languages to which these methods can be applied by an order of magnitude by using improved inference methods. Experiments on the reconstruction of Proto-Oceanic, Proto-Malayo-Javanic, and Classical Latin show substantial reductions in error rate, giving the best results to date.