Alexei Zhdanov

A Theory of Merger-Driven IPOs

We propose a model that links a firm’s decision to go public with its subsequent takeover strategy. A private bidder does not know its true valuation, which affects its gain from a potential takeover. Consequently, a private bidder pursues suboptimal restructuring policy. An alternative route is to complete an initial public offering first. An IPO reduces valuation uncertainty, leading to more efficient acquisition strategy, therefore enhancing firm value. We calibrate the model using data on IPOs and M&As. The resulting comparative statics generate several novel qualitative and quantitative predictions, which complement the predictions of other theories linking IPOs and M&As. For example, the time it takes a newly public firm to attempt an acquisition of another firm is expected to increase in the degree of valuation uncertainty prior to the firm’s IPO and it is expected to decrease in the valuation surprise realized at the time of the IPO. We test these and other empirical predictions of the model and find strong support for them.

Earnings and Equity Valuation in the Biotech Industry: Theory and Evidence

This study examines how the price-earnings relation varies with the uncertainty about and the quality of a firms investments. We develop a real option valuation framework to capture optimal investment and abandonment options in a research-intensive emerging technology, the biotechnology industry. Both management and investors resolve uncertainty about the firm quality over the life cycle from observing past investment successes and failures. We predict that the price-earnings relation is V-shaped and changes over the firm life cycle. Also, as investors learn about the quality of the firm over time, they will value accounting losses and profits more in higher quality firms. Our empirical findings are based on a sample of 301 biotechnology firms with an IPO between 1980 and 2000, and are generally consistent with our predictions. We contribute in several ways to the existing price-earnings literature. First, we provide a theoretical framework for the significant negative price-earnings relation for loss firms. Second, we show how the price-earnings relation changes over time as investors learn about the quality of the firm. Third, we provide a real option valuation model that is better suited for valuing option-intensive firms than the more traditional DCF based models. In addition, we show how nonfinancial information affects the pricing of earnings.

Financing Investment: The Choice Between Bonds and Bank Loans

We build a model of investment and financing decisions to study the choice between bonds and bank loans in a firms marginal financing decision and its effects on corporate investment. We show that firms with more growth options, with higher bargaining power in default, operating in more competitive product markets, or facing lower credit supply are more likely to issue bonds. We also demonstrate that, by changing the cost of financing, these characteristics affect the timing of investment. We test these predictions using a sample of U.S. firms and present new evidence that supports our theory. Data, as supplemental material, are available at http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2014.2005 . This paper was accepted by Gustavo Manso, finance.

R&D and the Market for Acquisitions

We provide a model and empirical tests showing how an active acquisition market positively affects firm incentives to innovate and conduct R&D. Our model shows how the incentives of small firms to conduct R&D in order to innovate increase with competition, demand and the probability that they are taken over. In contrast, we show that large firms optimally may decide to purchase smaller innovative firms and conduct less R&D themselves. Empirically, we document that the R&D of small firms responds more than the R&D of larger firms to demand shocks and the probability of being an acquisition target. The results also show that firm R&D increases with product-market competition and with industry acquisition liquidity and that these effects are stronger for smaller firms.

Distress Anomaly and Shareholder Risk: International Evidence

Financially distressed stocks in the U.S. earn puzzlingly low returns giving rise to the distress risk anomaly. In this paper we provide evidence on the performance of distressed stocks in 34 different countries. We find that the distress anomaly appears to exist in developed countries but not in emerging ones. Using cross-country analyses we explore several alternative potential drivers of returns to distressed stocks. We find that the distress anomaly is stronger in countries with stronger takeover legislation, lower barriers to arbitrage, higher information transparency, and easier access to new loans. We find a weak relation between the distress anomaly and debt enforcement risk, and a measure of country-level return skewness. We find no relation between the anomaly and the legal origin of a country. These findings suggest that various aspects of shareholders’ risk play an important role in shaping distressed stocks returns.

Product Market Competition and Option Prices

Most firms face some form of competition in product markets. The degree of competition a firm faces feeds back into its cash flows and affects the values of the securities it issues. Through its effects on stock prices, product market competition affects the prices of options on equity and leads to an inverse relationship between equity returns and volatility, generating a negative volatility skew in option prices. Using a large sample of U.S. equity options, we provide empirical support for this finding and demonstrate the importance of accounting for product market competition when explaining the cross-sectional variation in option skew. Received June 28, 2017; editorial decision October 23, 2018 by Editor Andrew Karolyi. Authors have furnished supplementary Internet Appendices, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.

Misvaluation of Investment Options

We study whether investment options are correctly priced. We build a real options model of optimal investment in the presence of demand uncertainty. We structurally estimate the model and classify stocks into undervalued and overvalued based on the difference between observed and model-implied firm values. A long-short strategy that buys undervalued and shorts overvalued stocks generates annualized alphas between 10% and 17%. This relation is only present in subsamples of firms with high proportions of investment options. We interpret these findings as evidence of misvaluation of investment options, leading to mispricing in equity markets that is gradually corrected over time.

Venture Capital Investments and Merger and Acquisition Activity Around the World

We examine the relation between venture capital (VC) investments, M&A activity, and merger competition laws in 48 countries around the world. We find evidence of a strong positive association between VC investments and lagged M&A activity, consistent with the hypothesis that an active M&A market provides viable exit opportunities for VC companies and therefore incentivizes them to engage in more deals. We also explore the effects of country-level merger competition laws and also pro-takeover legislation passed internationally on VC activity. We find significant reductions in VC activity in countries with stricter competition laws and find that VC activity intensifies after enactment of country-level takeover-friendly legislation.

Default Option and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns

We argue that default option is important for equity valuation and construct a model that explicitly prices the option to default or abandon the firm. An investment strategy that buys stocks that are classified as undervalued by our model and shorts overvalued stocks generates an annual 4-factor alpha of about 11% for U.S. stocks. The model’s performance is stronger for stocks with higher value of default option, such as distressed or highly volatile stocks. We construct a similar strategy in a sample of nine most highly capitalized developed markets and find consistent results. Our findings suggest that investors do not properly incorporate the value of default options in stock prices.