Alexia Iasonos

How To Build and Interpret a Nomogram for Cancer Prognosis

Nomograms are widely used for cancer prognosis, primarily because of their ability to reduce statistical predictive models into a single numerical estimate of the probability of an event, such as death or recurrence, that is tailored to the profile of an individual patient. User-friendly graphical interfaces for generating these estimates facilitate the use of nomograms during clinical encounters to inform clinical decision making. However, the statistical underpinnings of these models require careful scrutiny, and the degree of uncertainty surrounding the point estimates requires attention. This guide provides a nonstatistical audience with a methodological approach for building, interpreting, and using nomograms to estimate cancer prognosis or other health outcomes.

Patient versus clinician symptom reporting using the National Cancer Institute Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events: results of a questionnaire-based study

BACKGROUND The Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events (CTCAE) are used as standard practice in trials of cancer treatments by clinicians to elicit and report toxic effects. Alternatively, patients could report this information directly as patient-reported outcomes, but the accuracy of these reports compared with clinician reports remains unclear. We aimed to compare the reporting of symptom severity reported by patients and clinicians. METHODS Between March and May, 2005, a questionnaire with 11 common CTCAE symptoms was given to consecutive outpatients and their clinicians (physicians and nurses) in lung and genitourinary cancer clinics in the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York, NY, USA. Patients completed a version that used language adapted from the CTCAE for patient self-reporting. The results from the questionnaire were compared with clinician reporting of the same symptoms. FINDINGS Of 435 patients and their clinicians asked to take part in the study, 400 paired surveys were completed. For most symptoms, agreement between patient and clinician was high, and most discrepancies were within a grade difference of one point. Agreement was higher for symptoms that could be observable directly, such as vomiting and diarrhoea, than for more subjective symptoms, such as fatigue and dyspnoea. Differences in symptom reporting rarely would have changed treatment decisions or dosing, and patients assigned greater severity to symptoms more than did clinicians. No significant differences were recorded between the results when the questionnaire was completed by the patient before or after the clinician. INTERPRETATION Patient reporting of symptoms could add to the current approach to symptom monitoring in cancer treatment trials. Future research should assess the effect of self reporting on clinical outcomes and efficiency, and the use of real-time collection of patient-reported outcomes for early detection of potentially serious adverse events.

Adverse Symptom Event Reporting by Patients vs Clinicians: Relationships With Clinical Outcomes

BACKGROUND In cancer treatment trials, the standard source of adverse symptom data is clinician reporting by use of items from the National Cancer Institutes Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events (CTCAE). Patient self-reporting has been proposed as an additional data source, but the implications of such a shift are not understood. METHODS Patients with lung cancer receiving chemotherapy and their clinicians independently reported six CTCAE symptoms and Karnofsky Performance Status longitudinally at sequential office visits. To compare how patients vs clinicians reports relate to sentinel clinical events, a time-dependent Cox regression model was used to measure associations between reaching particular CTCAE grade severity thresholds with the risk of death and emergency room visits. To measure concordance of CTCAE reports with indices of daily health status, Kendall tau rank correlation coefficients were calculated for each symptom with EuroQoL EQ-5D questionnaire and global question scores. Statistical tests were two-sided. RESULTS A total of 163 patients were enrolled for an average of 12 months (range = 1-28 months), with a mean of 11 visits and 67 (41%) deaths. CTCAE reports were submitted by clinicians at 95% of visits and by patients at 80% of visits. Patients generally reported symptoms earlier and more frequently than clinicians. Statistically significant associations with death and emergency room admissions were seen for clinician reports of fatigue (P < .001), nausea (P = .01), constipation (P = .038), and Karnofsky Performance Status (P < .001) but not for patient reports of these items. Higher concordance with EuroQoL EQ-5D questionnaire and global question scores was observed for patient-reported symptoms than for clinician-reported symptoms. CONCLUSIONS Longitudinally collected clinician CTCAE assessments better predict unfavorable clinical events, whereas patient reports better reflect daily health status. These perspectives are complementary, each providing clinically meaningful information. Inclusion of both types of data in treatment trial results and drug labels appears to be warranted.

Risk-Adapted Dose-Dense Immunochemotherapy Determined by Interim FDG-PET in Advanced-Stage Diffuse Large B-Cell Lymphoma

PURPOSE In studies of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma, positron emission tomography with [(18)F]fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG-PET) performed after two to four cycles of chemotherapy has demonstrated prognostic significance. However, some patients treated with immunochemotherapy experience a favorable long-term outcome despite a positive interim FDG-PET scan. To clarify the significance of interim FDG-PET scans, we prospectively studied interim FDG-positive disease within a risk-adapted sequential immunochemotherapy program. PATIENTS AND METHODS From March 2002 to November 2006, 98 patients at Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center received induction therapy with four cycles of accelerated R-CHOP (rituximab + cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, vincristine, and prednisone) followed by an interim FDG-PET scan. If the FDG-PET scan was negative, patients received three cycles of ICE (ifosfamide, carboplatin, and etoposide) consolidation therapy. If residual FDG-positive disease was seen, patients underwent biopsy; if the biopsy was negative, they also received three cycles of ICE. Patients with a positive biopsy received ICE followed by autologous stem-cell transplantation. RESULTS At a median follow-up of 44 months, overall and progression-free survival were 90% and 79%, respectively. Ninety-seven patients underwent interim FDG-PET scans; 59 had a negative scan, 51 of whom are progression free. Thirty-eight patients with FDG-PET-positive disease underwent repeat biopsy; 33 were negative, and 26 remain progression free after ICE consolidation therapy. Progression-free survival of interim FDG-PET-positive/biopsy-negative patients was identical to that in patients with a negative interim FDG-PET scan (P = .27). CONCLUSION Interim or post-treatment FDG-PET evaluation did not predict outcome with this dose-dense, sequential immunochemotherapy program. Outside of a clinical trial, we recommend biopsy confirmation of an abnormal interim FDG-PET scan before changing therapy.

Long-Term Toxicity Monitoring via Electronic Patient-Reported Outcomes in Patients Receiving Chemotherapy

PURPOSE In cancer treatment trials, clinicians traditionally report patient toxicity symptoms. Alternatively, patients could provide this information directly. PATIENTS AND METHODS The Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events (CTCAE) is the mandated instrument for tracking patient toxicity symptoms in National Cancer Institute (NCI)-sponsored cancer treatment trials. We adapted CTCAE symptom items into patient language and uploaded these to an online platform. Lung cancer outpatients receiving chemotherapy were invited to self-report selected symptoms at visits via waiting area computers or optional home access. Symptom reports were printed for nurses at visits, but no instructions were given with regard to use of this information. RESULTS From June 2005 through March 2006, 125 patients were invited to participate, and 107 chose to enroll. Mean length of participation was 42 weeks (range, 1 to 71 weeks), by which time 35% died. The average number of clinic visits was 12 (range, 1 to 40 visits). At each consecutive visit, most patients (mean, 78%) logged in without significant attrition. Reasons for failure to log in included having no reminder and having inadequate time. Although 76% of enrollees had home computers, only 15% self-reported from home. Satisfaction with the system was high (90%), but only 51% felt communication was improved. All participating nurses understood the reports and felt this information was useful for clinical decisions, documentation, and discussions. However, only one of seven nurses discussed reports with patients frequently, with insufficient time being the most common barrier to discussions. CONCLUSION Online patient self-reporting is a feasible long-term strategy for toxicity symptom monitoring during chemotherapy, even among patients with advanced cancer and high symptom burdens. However, without explicit reminders and clinician feedback, patients demonstrated limited voluntary interest in self-reporting between visits.

Pilot Study of a Heptavalent Vaccine-Keyhole Limpet Hemocyanin Conjugate plus QS21 in Patients with Epithelial Ovarian, Fallopian Tube, or Peritoneal Cancer

Purpose: To characterize the safety and immunogenicity of a heptavalent antigen-keyhole limpet hemocyanin (KLH) plus QS21 vaccine construct in patients with epithelial ovarian, fallopian tube, or peritoneal cancer in second or greater complete clinical remission. Experimental Design: Eleven patients in this pilot trial received a heptavalent vaccine s.c. containing GM2 (10 μg), Globo-H (10 μg), Lewis Y (10 μg), Tn(c) (3 μg), STn(c) (3 μg), TF(c) (3 μg), and Tn-MUC1 (3 μg) individually conjugated to KLH and mixed with adjuvant QS21(100 μg). Vaccinations were administered at weeks 1, 2, 3, 7, and 15. Periodic blood and urine samples were obtained to monitor safety (complete blood count, comprehensive panel, amylase, thyroid-stimulating hormone, and urinalysis) and antibody production (ELISA, fluorescence-activated cell sorting, and complement-dependent cytotoxicity). Results: Eleven patients were included in the safety analysis; 9 of 11 patients remained on study for at least 2 weeks past fourth vaccination and were included in the immunologic analysis (two withdrew, disease progression). The vaccine was well tolerated. Self-limited and mild fatigue (maximum grade 2 in two patients), fever, myalgia, and localized injection site reactions were most frequent. No clinically relevant hematologic abnormalities were noted. No clinical or laboratory evidence of autoimmunity was seen. Serologic responses by ELISA were largely IgM against each antigen with the exception of Tn-MUC1 where both IgM and IgG responses were induced. Antibody responses were generally undetectable before immunization. After immunization, median IgM titers were as follows: Tn-MUC1, 1:640 (IgG 1:80); Tn, 1:160; TF, 1:640; Globo-H, 1:40; and STn, 1:80. Only one response was seen against Lewis Y; two were against GM2. Eight of nine patients developed responses against at least three antigens. Antibody titers peaked at weeks 4 to 8 in all patients. Fluorescence-activated cell sorting and complement-dependent cytotoxicity analysis showed substantially increased reactivity against MCF7 cells in seven of nine patients, with some increase seen in all patients. Conclusions: This heptavalent-KLH conjugate plus QS21 vaccine safely induced antibody responses against five of seven antigens. Investigation in an adequately powered efficacy trial is warranted.

Stage-Specific Outcomes of Patients With Uterine Leiomyosarcoma: A Comparison of the International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics and American Joint Committee on Cancer Staging Systems

PURPOSE Uterine leiomyosarcoma (LMS) is staged by the modified International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) staging system for uterine cancer. We aimed to determine whether the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) soft tissue sarcoma (STS) staging system is more accurate in predicting progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). PATIENTS AND METHODS Patients with uterine LMS who presented at our institution from 1982 to 2005 were staged retrospectively according to a modified FIGO staging system and the AJCC STS staging system. The predictive accuracy of the two staging systems was compared using concordance estimation. RESULTS Two hundred nineteen patients had sufficient clinical and pathologic information to be staged under both systems; 132 patients were upstaged using the AJCC staging system, whereas only four were downstaged. Stage-specific PFS and OS rates for stages I, II, and III differed substantially between the two staging systems. In both systems, there was prognostic overlap between stages II and III. Thus, despite the marked stage-specific differences in 5-year PFS and OS rates for stages I, II, and III, both systems had similar concordance indices. CONCLUSION Estimates of stage-specific PFS and OS for uterine LMS were altered substantially when using the AJCC versus FIGO staging system. Adjuvant treatment strategies should be tested in patients at substantial risk for disease progression and death. Neither the FIGO nor AJCC staging system is ideal for identifying such patients, suggesting a need for a uterine LMS-specific staging system to better target patients for trials of adjuvant therapies.

BRAF mutation is associated with early stage disease and improved outcome in patients with low-grade serous ovarian cancer.

Low‐grade serous (LGS) ovarian cancer is a chemoresistant disease that accounts for 10% of serous ovarian cancers. Prior studies have reported that 28% to 35% of serous borderline (SB)/LGS ovarian tumors harbor a BRAF mutation, suggesting that BRAF inhibitors may be a rational therapeutic approach for this disease. In the current study, the authors sought to determine whether BRAF or KRAS mutation status was associated with disease stage and/or histology in patients with SB and LGS ovarian cancer.

A Comprehensive Comparison of the Continual Reassessment Method to the Standard 3 + 3 Dose Escalation Scheme in Phase I Dose-Finding Studies

Background An extensive literature has covered the statistical properties of the Continual Reassessment Method (CRM) and the modifications of this method. While there are some applications of CRM designs in recent Phase I trials, the standard method (SM) of escalating doses after three patients with an option for an additional three patients SM remains very popular, mainly due to its simplicity. From a practical perspective, clinicians are interested in designs that can estimate the MTD using fewer patients for a fixed number of doses, or can test more dose levels for a given sample size. Purpose This article compares CRM-based methods with the SM in terms of the number of patients needed to reach the MTD, total sample size required, and trial duration. Methods The comparisons are performed under two alternative schemes: a fixed or a varying sample approach with the implementation of a stopping rule. The stopping rule halts the trial if the confidence interval around the MTD is within a pre-specified bound. Our simulations evaluated several CRM-based methods under different scenarios by varying the number of dose levels from five to eight and the location of the true MTD. Results CRM and SM are comparable in terms of how fast they reach the MTD and the total sample size required when testing a limited number of dose levels (≤5), but as the number of dose levels increases, CRM reaches the MTD in fewer patients when used with a fixed sample of 20 patients. However, a sample size of 20—25 patients is not sufficient to achieve a narrow precision around the estimated toxicity rate at the MTD. Limitations We focused on methods with practical design features that are of interest to clinicians. However, there are several alternative CRM-based designs that are not investigated in this manuscript, and hence our results are not generalizable to other designs. Conclusions We show that CRM-based methods are an improvement over the SM in terms of accuracy and optimal dose allocation in almost all cases, except when the true dose is among the lower levels. Clinical Trials 2008; 5: 465—477. http://ctj.sagepub.com

Endometrial carcinomas in women aged 40 years and younger: tumors associated with loss of DNA mismatch repair proteins comprise a distinct clinicopathologic subset.

Endometrial carcinomas (ECs) in young women (≤40 y) are usually managed conservatively in selected patients. Whether oophorectomy with total hysterectomy is mandated for patients failing hormonal therapy is controversial. Recognition of features that might discourage conservative management and ovarian preservation are currently poorly characterized. We evaluated these patients for DNA mismatch repair (MMR) protein defects to assess whether the MMR status had an impact on therapeutic decision making. Seventy ECs in women of 40 years of age or younger (n=70) were identified from review of institutional databases (1993—present). All available slides were reviewed and DNA MMR immunohistochemistry was performed using 4 markers (MLH1, PMS2, MSH2, and MSH6) in cases with available blocks (n=54). ECs were predominantly endometrioid (65/70), and most were low grade (1988 International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics grades 1 or 2, 83%). Five (7%) were undifferentiated carcinomas. Most patients presented at early stage (stages I to II, 90%). A significant number of patients also had synchronous ovarian carcinomas (9 of 70, 13%), predominantly endometrioid (7 of 9), whereas 2 were ovarian clear cell carcinomas. Sixty-six of the 70 patients are alive with no evidence of disease, whereas 4 patients (6%) died of disease. Immunohistochemistry for DNA MMR showed loss of at least 1 protein in 9 of 54 cases (16%) with slight predominance of MSH2/MSH6 abnormalities (5 of 9) compared with loss of MLH1/PMS2. Tumors with MMR loss frequently occurred in women with low body mass index; these tumors were of higher grade and associated with worse clinical outcomes. They frequently showed tumor characteristics associated with microsatellite instability, including tumor infiltrating lymphocytes, undifferentiated or dedifferentiated histology, and lower uterine segment origin. These tumors also showed lower estrogen receptor/progesterone receptor expression compared with tumors with retained staining for MMR proteins. None of the cases with synchronous ovarian and endometrial endometrioid carcinomas showed loss of MMR proteins, whereas 1 of 2 ECs with synchronous CCC of ovary showed loss of MSH2/MSH6. As young women with endometrioid carcinomas who show loss of mismatch proteins are at risk for high-grade tumors with worse clinical outcomes and lower estrogen receptor/progesterone receptor expression, they may not be appropriate candidates for conservative management. Although young EC patients are at increased risk for synchronous endometrioid ovarian carcinomas, this does not seem to be associated with MMR loss.