Alf Zimmer

Verbal Vs. Numerical Processing of Subjective Probabilities

Publisher Summary This chapter examines individuals ability to express numerically what is internally represented. The chapter examines whether they represented in (1) a verbal propositional mode, (2) a numerical propositional mode, or (3) in an analogue mode of automatic frequency monitoring. It seems unlikely that the mathematically appropriate procedures with numerical estimates of uncertainty have become automatized. It is more likely that people handle uncertainty by customary verbal expressions and the implicit and explicit rules of conversation connected with them. The chapter analyzes the meaning of common verbal expressions for uncertain events. These expressions are interpreted as possibility functions and the procedures applicable to them are modeled in the possibility theory. This theory allows for a numerical interpretation by means of determining the elastic constraints on the usage of such expressions. The results gained by interpreting verbal expressions of uncertainty as possibility functions can be compared to the results of the studies, where subjects provide the numerical expressions themselves.

Do we see what makes our script characteristic-- -or do we only feel it? Modes of sensory control in handwriting.

SummaryHow does a person produce handwritten letters which are both legible and also show an individuality of script? Three production control models are proposed: 1) Visual control, 2) Kinesthetic control, and 3) Parallel Kinesthetic and Visual control. In Experiment 1 24 subjects wrote text samples by hand under normal lighting, reduced lighting, or in complete darkness. The subjects addressed the samples to themselves, to close friends, or to other students. The handwriting did not degenerate under the reduction of visibility if the subjects addressed the samples to themselves, but it did undergo marked changes if directed at someone unknown. This result rules out the visual control model. In Experiment 2 the same subjects were asked to answer questions about the characteristics of their own handwritten letters while holding an image of the letter in mind. There were four types of imagery instructions: subjects were told to form either 1) a static visual image, 2) a dynamic image, 3) a kinesthetic image, 4) a combined kinesthetic and dynamic visual image. Subjects were able to answer questions about their handwritten letters more correctly with the fourth type of imagery instructions, suggesting Parallel Kinesthetic and Visual control of handwriting, the third of the proposed control models. A closer examination of the results of Experiment 2 reveals that the control processes are interactive; the idiosyncratic letter forms which make up the individuality in handwriting are controlled exclusively by kinesthetic information.

What Uncertainty Judgments Can Tell About the Underlying Subjective Probabilities

Abstract Theoretically as well as experimentally it is investigated how people represent their knowledge in order to make decisions or to share their knowledge with others. Experiment 1 probes into the ways how people gather information about the frequencies of events and how the requested response mode, that is, numerical vs. verbal estimates interferes with this knowledge. The least interference occurs if the subjects are allowed to give verbal responses. From this it is concluded that processing knowledge about uncertainty categorically, that is, by means of verbal expressions, imposes less mental work load on the decision matter than numerical processing. Possibility theory is used as a framework for modelling the individual usage of verbal categories for grades of uncertainty. The ‘elastic’ constraints on the verbal expressions for every single subject are determined in Experiment 2 by means of sequential calibration. In further experiments it is shown that the superiority of the verbal processing of knowledge about uncertainty quite generally reduces persistent biases reported in the literature: conservatism (Experiment 3) and negligence of regression (Experiment 4). The reanalysis of Hormanns data reveal that in verbal Judgments people exhibit sensitivity for base rates and are not prone to the conjunction fallacy. In a final experiment (5) about predictions in a real-life situation it turns out that in a numerical forecasting task subjects restricted themselves to those parts of their knowledge which are numerical. On the other hand subjects in a verbal forecasting task accessed verbally as well as numerically stated knowledge. Forecasting is structurally related to the estimation of probabilities for rare events insofar as supporting and contradicting arguments have to be evaluated and the choice of the final judgment has to be justified according to the evidence brought forward. In order to assist people in such choice situations a formal model for the interactive checking of arguments has been developed. The model transforms the normal-language quantifiers used in the arguments into fuzzy numbers and evaluates the given train of arguments by means of fuzzy numerical operations. Ambiguities in the meanings of quantifiers are resolved interactively.

Development and evaluation of a multimodal touchpad for advanced in-vehicle systems

Multimodal interaction can substantially improve human-computer interaction by employing multiple perceptual channels. We report on the development and evaluation of a touchpad with auditory, tactile and visual feedback for in-vehicle applications. In a simulator study, we assessed its suitability for interacting with a menu-based on-board system and investigated the effects of uni-, bi- and trimodal feedback on task and driving performance, workload and visual distraction in comparison to a conventional rotary push-button. In summary our results show that users clearly benefit from additional nonvisual feedback while driving. When using the touchpad with multimodal feedback, our subjects also reached a higher level of performance compared to the rotary push-button.

A Common Framework for Colloquial Quantifiers and Probability Terms

Publisher Summary This chapter examines common framework for colloquial quantifiers and probability terms. Colloquial quantifiers and uncertainty expressions can be interpreted as fuzzy numbers in the interval [0, 1]. Empirical procedures are suggested for the determination of these fuzzy numbers. The empirical results reveal that for propositions on a defined level of abstraction colloquial quantifiers and probability terms can not only be expressed as fuzzy numbers but furthermore can be used in according to the rules for fuzzy combination numbers. The operations with fuzzy numbers correspond to the standard operations in arithmetics. Any two fuzzy numbers can be concatenated by (1) calculating the resulting core by means of standard arithmetics, (ii) averaging the respective upper and lower boundaries, and by (iii) determining the resulting boundaries from the averaged boundaries in relation to the resulting core. Quantifiers expressed as fuzzy numbers in the interval [0, 1] and uncertainty expressions represented as fuzzy probabilities are comparable. The common framework for quantifiers and uncertainty expressions as established by the assignation of fuzzy numbers in [0, 1] has to be complemented by a comparison of the algorithms of inference.

Discrimination and association processes for faces and non-faces: The effect of rotation

Most current theories of face perception claim that inversion leaves the coding of non-face stimuli largely unaffected, while causing a qualitative change in the coding of faces. Empirical support for this hypothesis mainly stems from recognition studies which typically show a larger inversion decrement for faces than for other stimuli. Several recent studies using experimental paradigms that do not contain a substantial memory component have however yielded contradicting results. This observation suggests that the disproportionate effect of inversion for faces might be related to the presence, or absence, of a memory component in the experimental task. In order to explore this hypothesis we investigated the effect of inversion within a discrimination learning paradigm, which contains a memory component comparable to that included in a recognition paradigm. We compared the effect of rotation on discrimination and association processes for faces and cars, Subjects learned to discriminate pairs of similar faces and similar cars and to associated them with neutral responses. The stimulus pairs were presented upright, inverted, and additionally in two intermediate orientations. We found that discrimination performance was generally better for faces than for cars and that associations were learned faster for faces than for cars. However, we did not find any evidence that rotation affected discrimination and association processes for faces differently than for cars. In this sense, our results provide no evidence for the hypothesis that memory processes are responsible for disproportionate effect of inversion which is found in recognition experiments.

Information Systems in Transportation

The increasing significance of information technology as well as application networks for varying areas, e.g. aviation and shipping as well as automobile and rail traffic are characteristic traits of an information society (cf. Harms and Luckhardt 2005). Further developments in the fields of microelectronics, computer, software and network technology, but also display technology, etc. are the driving force of this progression.

What is Form

One of the central topics of discussion in Western philosophy has been the precedence of form over matter, or vice versa. For this reason the question ‘What is form?’ has a strong traditional flavour and I have to admit that also my tentative answer from the vantage point of psychology, or to be more precise: from that of perceptual processes, is deeply rooted in philosophy. Democritus (fragment 13) distinguishes between genuine qualities in nature, like weight and size, and those which only emerge if nature is perceived, like colour and taste. In modern parlance,1 this is the distinction between objects as they are and objects as they are seen from a specific point of view. In my opinion, the discussion about the primacy of either form or matter, especially in the Aristotelian tradition of thought, misses one important point: in perception neither objects are seen as isolated in space nor as spatial arrangements or geometrical projections unrelated to the projected objects. What is perceived are objects in situations or events which, except for very specific situations, are phenomenologically unique. Two examples can serve to illustrate this point. In Figure 1 an erratic line (A) is shown in two different contexts: while in (B) the oscillations are accidental and what is seen is a freehand drawing of a brick, in (C) these same oscillations determine the meaning, namely, an undulating plane with one vanishing point — in a way, what is accidental in (B) is substantial in (C), but in both cases the percept is unique.

Autonomous Organization in Perception and Motor Control

It is argued that for theoretical and empirical reasons an entirely Empiricist account for perception and action is not possible. This is related to results on the necessity of hidden layers in connectionist models of cognition. For paradigmatic examples in space perception and motor behavior it is investigated what processes can account for the apparent order in these domains. A general tendency towards stability is identified but, for instance, the phenomena of apparent depth in plane drawings or multistability reveal that different kinds or points of stability may compete. The finally achieved stable percept usually depends on symmetry breaking. Similar phenomena can be found in motor behavior where singularities play a similarly decisive role. Finally, the “cost“ of these order producing processes in discussed in terms of veridical representations and learnability.

How 3D-Displays in ATC Permit Direct Event Perception

Three different stereoscopic 3D visualizations are compared with regard to the quality of the event representation to the 2D reference currently used at air-traffic-control controller working positions. Both air-traffic-controllers and pilots judge safety critical air-traffic events showing two converging aircrafts. The level of cognitive demand that arises in peak-traffic situations is simulated by an additional auditory task that has to be conducted in parallel to the conflict assessment. The results indicate that 3D visualizations represent the event structure best, and enhance the efficacy of the air-traffic-controllers in detecting conflicts without compensating this advantage at the cost of efficiency due to a higher number of false alarms. The increase of this advantage with increased cognitive demand indicates benefits of 3D visualizations regarding mental workload and situation-awareness. These displays furthermore proof advantageous for judging vertical distances and the acquisition of conflict assessment skills, therewith indicating their usefulness for controlling areas with strong vertical aircraft movements as well as training decision skills.