Alfonso Carfora

Regional tax evasion and audit enforcement

ABSTRACT Regional tax evasion and audit enforcement. Regional Studies. Using an original panel dataset on tax gap and audits, this paper sheds light on the impact of audit and enforcement on the Italian regional tax evasion over the period 2001–11. Spatial econometric models were used to model regional tax gaps and to control for endogeneity issues and spatial patterns. Results provide evidence that greater enforcement increases tax compliance. A higher probability of targeted audits and additional schemes to increase the disclosure of declared income decrease the tax gap. The paper provides a general framework to study determinants of tax evasion at the regional level.

Empirical Study of Climate Finance

The chapter proposes one of the possible approaches to investigate whether developing countries can progress towards more environmentally sustainable development using the flow of funds provided by developed (or donor) countries by increasing the resilience of their environmental, social and economic systems to either endogenous or exogenous shocks. After a description of the observed data, there will follow a construction of a composite indicator capable of providing a quantitative measure of the environmental performance of a country related to other variables that are able to describe social and economic particularities. In this way, it is possible to individuate a way capable of giving a measure of the repercussion of the financial flows on combating environmental degradation seen through the most important components of the increase in global warming. Our results contribute to the debate on the vulnerability and resilience of receiving countries as part of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change agreement.

Conclusions and Policy Implications

In this chapter we report some concluding remarks and policy implications. The results obtained by the analysis of the committed and disbursed flow of funds revealed a strong heterogeneity in the way the funds are being allocated by donors; however, our findings show a relationship between the amounts disbursed and greenhouse gas emissions, which is more significant with regard to the funds directed toward biosphere protection.

Climate Finance as an Instrument to Promote the Green Growth in Developing Countries

In this chapter we introduce the topics and the goals of the book. We present the problem of environmental sustainability of the current economic production system and consumption of goods starting from one of the first approach attempts through dynamical systems proposed by J.W. Forrester. It shows how concern for the Earth system was already important in the late ’60s. Finally, it outlines the work plan in view of the deepening of a measure of adaptationmitigation as the Climate Finance.

Assessing the Effectiveness of Climate Finance: Composite Indicators and Quantile Regression

In this chapter we briefly explain methods proposed to assess the effectiveness of the climate funds to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions.

Spatial Dynamic Modelling of Tax Gap: the Case of Italy

Abstract This paper analyses the determinants of regional tax gap in Italy testing if tax evasion is characterised by spatial persistence. The size of spatial correlation in regional tax gaps has been tested and the role of additional determinants of evasion over the period 2001-2011 has been estimated. Using a dynamic spatial panel model, it is shown that regional tax gap is determined by tax evasion in neighbouring regions and is characterised by spatial persistence. Results make it possible to draw a taxonomy of the determinants of regional tax gap: contextual factors and operational factors linked to the relative efficacy of tax evasion contrasting policies and geography.

A Dynamic Factor Model for Italian and German Recessions

In this paper we analyze a model for the prediction of Italian and German recessions making use of two macro factors that summarize a high number of variables. The two factors consist of a financial factor and real activity factor. Their dynamics is described by random walks. The results are compared with some of the Kauppi and Saikkonen (2008) models. While the in-sample performance of the Dynamic Autoregressive model by Kauppi and Saikkonen is unrivalled, the 6 and 12-months horizons out-of-sample analysis favors the models including some of the factors.

Modelling Recession in Two European Countries: the Generalized BHAR model

The time series of German and Italian recessions are analyzed using a novel approach for binary time series introduced in [19]. For the German recessions a purely autoregressive model for binary data has provided satisfactory results. For the Italian recessions, on the other hand, to reach a significant fit we have applied a model including some lags of the German driving economy. An interpretation in terms of short-run and long-run effects is proposed.