Alfonso Rosolia

Social Interactions in High School: Lessons from an Earthquake

We provide new evidence on the impact of peer effects on the schooling decisions of teenagers. In November 1980 a major earthquake hit Southern Italy. In the aftermath, young men from certain towns were exempted from compulsory military service. We show that the exemption raised high school graduation rates of boys by more than 2 percentage points by comparing high school graduation rates of young exempt men and older not exempt men from the least damaged areas and men of the same age groups from nearby towns that were not hit by the quake. Similar comparisons show that graduation rates of young women in the affected areas rose by about 2 percentage points. Since in Italy women are not subject to drafting, we interpret these findings as evidence of social effects of the decision of teenage boys of staying longer in school on that of teenage girls. Our estimates suggest that an increase of 1 percentage point of male graduation rates raises female probability of completing high school by about 0.7-0.8 percentage points. A series of robustness checks, including comparisons across different age groups and with different definitions of the comparison areas, suggest that the rise was due to the earthquake-related exemption, rather than other factors.

People I Know: Job Search and Social Networks

We assess the strength of information spillovers relating unemployment duration of workers displaced by firm closures to their former colleagues’ current employment status. Displaced-specific networks are recovered from a 20-year panel of matched employer-employee data. Spillovers are identified by comparing performances of codisplaced workers. A one-standard-deviation increase in the network employment rate reduces unemployment duration by about 8%; the effect is magnified if contacts recently searched for a job and if their current employer is spatially and technologically closer to the displaced worker; stronger ties and lower competition for information favor reemployment. Several indirect tests exclude other interaction mechanisms.

Employment Growth in Italy in the 1990s: Institutional Arrangements and Market Forces

The chapter analyses the broad picture emerging from the 1993 incomes policy agreement in Italy as well as other policy actions (and omissions). The agreement was successful in producing a remarkable moderation of the relative price of labour - despite the reduction of the user cost of capital driven by the fall in interest rates – and an increase in labour demand and employment. In spite of this, however, the intensified international competition made structural problems of Italian industry much more severe, with negative effects on the growth of output and exports, and eventually employment.

The Generation Gap: Relative Earnings of Young and Old Workers in Italy

We describe the evolution of the relative earnings of young male workers and the evolution of the age-earnings profiles across cohorts in the last three decades. We draw on administrative records to document a significant deterioration of entry wages over the 1990s in the presence of basically stable experience profiles. We supplement the analysis with the Bank of Italys Survey on Household Income and Wealth and show that the wage gap between younger and older workers widened in the 90s for all levels of educational attainment. These developments are not accounted for by changes in relative skill-age labor supplies or in other potential socio-demographic determinants of wages. We argue that they were probably the result of partial labor market reforms that generated a dual labor market along the age dimension, opening a gap between the earnings of old incumbent workers and those of new labor market entrants.

People I Know: Workplace Networks and Job Search Outcomes

We examine the role of information networks in job-search outcomes of displaced individuals. We draw on longitudinal Social Security records covering the universe of worker-firm matches in a tight labor market in Northern Italy. Unlike previous research, we focus on workplace networks whose labor market attributes we are able to describe extensively. A workplace network is defined as all coworkers a displaced individual worked with prior to displacement. Estimates of network effects are thus affected by omitted variable bias if the labor market sorts workers across firms along relevant determinants of search outcomes and network characteristics or if past coworkers are exposed to the same shocks. The empirical strategy accounts for these possibilities by comparing subsequent outcomes of workers displaced by the same firm; in addition, we exploit the longitudinal dimension to develop controls for potential residual within-firm heterogeneity. In particular, we control for pre-displacement wages and employment status as well as descriptions of pre-displacement firms and their workforce. Contactsi?½ labor market attributes have a significant effect on a variety of job search outcomes. Employed contacts significantly increase the probability of re-employment. They are more effective if they experienced a recent job change and when geographically and technologically closer to the displaced. Stronger ties and lower competition for the available information also speed up re-employment. While largely irrelevant for unemployment duration, contactsi?½ quality is a significant determinant of entry wages and subsequent job stability.

Schooling and Youth Mortality: Learning from a Mass Military Exemption

This paper examines the relationship between education and mortality in a young population of Italian males. In 1981 several cohorts of young men from specific southern towns were unexpectedly exempted from compulsory military service after a major quake hit the region. Comparisons of exempt cohorts from the least damaged towns on the border of the quake region with similar ones from neighbouring non-exempt towns just outside the region show that, by 1991, the cohorts exempted while still in high school display significantly higher graduation rates. The probability of dying over the decade 1991-2001 was also significantly lower. Several robustness checks confirm that the findings do not reflect omitted quake-related confounding factors, such as the ensuing compensatory interventions. Moreover, cohorts exempted soon after high school age do not display higher schooling or lower mortality rates, thus excluding that the main findings reflect direct effects of military service on subsequent mortality rather than a causal effect of schooling. The authors conclude that increasing the proportion of high school graduates by 1 percentage point leads to 0.1-0.2 percentage points lower mortality rates between the ages of 25 and 35.

Productivity and Foreign Competition

The debate in Italy on the recent disappointing performance of GDP growth has focused on the increasing competitive pressure exerted by firms located in the developing countries and specialized in key product sectors of Italian manufacturing. This paper contributes by explicitly quantifying the effects of this competition on the efficiency of Italian manufacturing firms and sectors. The exercise exploits the exogenous nature of the entry into international markets of competing firms located in developing countries, largely attributable to trade liberalization policies and the initial forms of industrial development. The relation between the developing countriesi?½ market shares and sectoral productivity in Italy, both disaggregated according to the 3-digit Ateco91 classification, is found to be empirically positive. The effect is largely due to a process of creative destruction in which the least efficient firms exit the market and new firms of above-average efficiency enter.

The generation gap: a cohort analysis of earnings levels, dispersion and initial labor market conditions in Italy, 1974-2014

We discuss entry wages, career patterns and inequality developments of successive cohorts who have entered the Italian labour market between 1974 and 2014. We find that entry wages started to decline around the mid-1990s; the drop continued at least until the onset of the global financial crisis, seemingly slowing down thereafter. This pattern cannot be explained by changes in observable job characteristics. Falling entry wages have not been accompanied by faster subsequent career paths; rather, subsequent career paths have increasingly featured rising earnings dispersion due to both increased workers heterogeneity and greater temporary earnings instability. We relate such developments to the changes in labour market institutions that took place between the early 1990s and the mid-2000s.

The Effects of Unemployment Benefits in Italy: Evidence from an Institutional Change

We document the effects of a change in the replacement rate and potential duration of theItalian Ordinary unemployment benefits scheme on the job search process. As of january 2001, benefits were extended from 6 to 9 months selectively for workers aged 50 or more, and the replacement rate was raised from 30 to 40 percent for all workers. We draw on social security records that cover the employment and welfare histories of a representative sample of individuals. Comparisons of eligible and non eligible workers across the relevant age and time thresholds conducted on a variety of samples and conditional on several specifications of the information set suggest that(a) the average duration of benefits’ collection increased by around one month for individuals entitled to 3 additional months of potential duration, while it did not change significantly for those only exposed to higher replacement rates;(b) the pace of reemployment is never found to be statistically different among claimants exposed to the new regime, although point estimates for those exposed to a longer duration point consistently toa2-4percentagepoints lower probability of reemployment at several horizons. Graphical evidence suggests that job-separation rates did not change with the new regime, while take-up apparently did, although the clear cyclical pattern could bias the picture. We conclude that, if any, the behavioral response induced by such institutional change, must have been economically modest. We discuss reasons why the response may have been so subdued.

Chapter 9 The EU-wide Earnings Distribution

This chapter studies the distribution of labour earnings among employees within the EU using data from Wave 2007-1 of the EU-SILC. The ranking of countries by median full-time equivalent monthly gross earnings shows Eastern European nations at the bottom and Luxembourg at the top; earnings differences are sizeable, both across and within countries. Taking the euro area and the EU-25 as a whole, inequality is higher when earnings are measured in euro at market exchange rates than at purchasing power parities. Unsurprisingly, the wage distribution is narrower in the euro area than in the EU-25, which includes the poorer Eastern European countries joining the Union in 2004. The higher inequality observed for the EU-25 is largely attributable to between-country differences, which in turn reflect differences in returns to individual attributes more than in workforce composition.