Ali Acaravci

Finance - Growth Nexus: Evidence from Turkey

This paper examines the causal relationship between financial development and economic growth in Turkey for the period 1986:1-2006:4 using dynamic time series models. The results of the cointegration analysis provide evidence of no long-run relationship between financial development and economic growth. Therefore, the empirical investigation is carried out in a vector autoregression (VAR) framework to analyze the short run effect of the financial intermediary development on economic growth. The results show a one-way causal relationship running from the financial development to the economic growth in Turkey.

Testing the export-led growth hypothesis: empirical evidence from Turkey

In this paper the Turkish export-led growth hypothesis is examined from the trade liberalisation process initiated in 1980. The paper has employed Toda and Yamamoto (1995) procedure for testing for Granger non-causality in the augmented vector autoregressive (VAR) methodology to analyze the dynamic relationship between export growth and economic growth in Turkey using quarterly data from 1989 to 2006. The empirical results support the export-led growth hypothesis for Turkey and that Granger causal flow is unidirectional from real exports to real GDP.

Purchasing Power Parity Under the Current Float

Purchasing power parity (PPP) is an important benchmark model in international finance. Recent literature emphasizes that panel unit root tests have higher power than univariate unit root tests. The results from the ADF unit root test also support the recent literature. Using four panel data unit root tests for the 1990:1 - 2006:3 period, we re-examine the PPP both for developed countries and emerging market economies during the floating exchange rate period. Our empirical results fail to support long-run PPP for both developed countries and emerging market economies.

Energy consumption, CO2 emissions, economic growth, and foreign trade relationship in Cyprus and Malta

ABSTRACT This paper examines the long-run and causal relationship issues between economic growth, carbon emissions, energy consumption, foreign trade ratio, and employment ratio in Cyprus and Malta by using autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach of cointegration and error-correction-based Granger causality models. Empirical results over the period 1980–2006 suggest an evidence of a long-run relationship between the variables at 5% significance level only in Malta. Thus, Granger causality models are estimated only for Malta. Results for the existence and direction of Granger causality show that the causality runs from carbon emissions, energy consumption, foreign trade ratio, and employment ratio to economic growth but not vice versa in Malta. The overall results indicate that energy conservation policies, such as rationing energy consumption and controlling carbon dioxide emissions, are likely to have no adverse effect on the real output growth of Malta.

The Causal Relationship between Electricity Consumption and GDP in Turkey: Evidence from ARDL Bounds Testing Approach

Abstract This paper investigates the long-run and causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in Turkey by using the ARDL cointegration test and Granger causality models. It employs annual data covering the period of 1977–2006. The ARDL cointegration test yields evidence of a long-run relationship between electricity consumption per capita and real GDP per capita. The results from the Granger causality models indicate that there is an evidence of unidirectional causality running from the electricity consumption to economic growth in the long-run. The overall results confirm the “Growth hypothesis” for Turkey. This implies that, energy conservation policies, such as rationing electricity consumption, are likely to have an adverse effect on real GDP of Turkey.†

Türkiye’de Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar, Dış Ticaret ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi

Bu calismanin temel amaci Turkiye ekonomisinde dogrudan yabanci yatirimlar ve dis ticaretin ekonomik buyume uzerine etkisini zaman serisi yontemiyle incelemektir. Analiz sonuclarina gore dogrudan yabanci yatirimlar, dis ticaret ve ekonomik buyume arasinda uzun donemli iliskiye rastlanamamistir. 1998-2015 arasi donemde Turkiye icin ithalat ve dogrudan yabanci yatirimlardan buyumeye dogru tek yonlu nedensellik iliskisi tespit edilmistir. Turkiye ekonomisi icin ithalata dayali buyume hipotezi desteklenmekte, ithalat ve dogrudan yabanci yatirimlarin verimliligi artirarak ekonomik buyumeye katki saglayacagi dusunulmektedir.

Türki Cumhuriyetlerde Elektrik Tüketimi, Reel Gelir ve Dışa Açıklık İlişkisi: Bootstrap-Granger Nedensellik Yaklaşımı

Bu calisma, Turki Cumhuriyetlerde gelir, elektrik enerji tuketimi ve disa aciklik, arasindaki nedensellik iliskilerini, yatay-kesit bagimliligi dikkate ikinci nesil panel veri yontemleri kullanilarak 1992-2012 donemi icin arastirmaktadir. Yatay kesit bagimlilik test sonuclarina gore, tum degiskenler ve model yatay kesit bagimlidir. Smith vd. Bootstrap (2004) birim kok testi sonuclarina gore kisi basi gelir ve disa aciklik degiskenleri duzeyde, elektrik tuketimi degiskeni ise fark duragandir. Bu nedenle degiskenler arasinda uzun donemli iliskilerin varligini test etmeye yonelik olarak esbutunlesme testleri uygulanmamistir. Degiskenler arasindaki nedensel iliskiler, yatay kesit bagimliligi dikkate alan, ulke bazli sonuclar elde etmeye olanak saglayan ve iki aciklayici degiskenin bagimli degisken uzerindeki etkisini ayni anda test etmeye olanak saglayan Konya (2006) panel nedensellik modeliyle incelenmistir. Analiz sonuclari su sekilde ozetlenebilir: i) Elektrik tuketimi ve gelir arasinda nedensellik iliskisi mevcuttur. ii) Disa aciklik ve gelir arasinda nedensellik iliskisi mevcuttur. iii) Enerji tuketimi ve disa aciklik degiskenleri, gelir uzerinde daha guclu ortak etkiye sahiptir .