Ali Ceylan

Determinants of inpatient costs of angina pectoris, myocardial infarction, and heart failure in a university hospital setting in Turkey.

Objective: This study aimed to determine the correlates of in-hospital costs for angina pectoris (AP), myocardial infarction (MI), and heart failure (HF) in a university hospital setting. Methods: This is a retrospective cost-of-illness study using data from the records of patients who were admitted with AP, MI, or HF to Dokuz Eylül University Hospital during 2008. Direct medical costs were calculated from the Social Security Institute perspective using a bottom-up approach. Socio-demographic and clinical information was abstracted from patient files. Costs were presented in Turkish lira (TL). A generalized linear model was used in the multivariate analysis. Results: We included 337 in-patients in total in the study. AP was present in 26.4% (n=89), MI was present in 55.8% (n=188), and HF was present in 17.8% (n=60) of patients. MI was the most costly disease (2760 TL), followed by HF (2350 TL) and AP (1881 TL). The largest proportion of the total cost was formed by medical interventions (27.5%), followed by surgery (22.2%). Presence of DM, smoking, diagnosis of MI, HF, need for intensive care, and resulting in death were strong predictors of treatment costs. Conclusion: Both preadmission characteristics of patients (diabetes mellitus, smoking, use of anti-aggregant before admission) and in-patient characteristics (diagnosis, coronary artery bypass grafting, intensive care need, death) predicted the hospital cost of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) independently. Our results may be used as input for health-economic models and economic evaluations to support the decision-making of reimbursement and the cost-effectiveness of public health interventions in healthcare.

Seroprevalence of Pertussis Toxin Antibody in Manisa Province of Turkey, After Six Years Implementation of Acellular Pertussis Vaccine

Vaccination is the most effective way of preventing pertussis disease. Turkey commenced a routine infant immunization program using whole cell (wP) pertussis vaccine in 1968. Immunization accelerated in 1985 after participation of Turkey in the Expanded Programme on Immunization initiated by the World Health Organization. Acellular vaccine (aP) replaced wP in 2008 and a booster was added to age 6 in 2010. The immunization programme was successful in reducing the morbidity rate from 20.58 per 100.000 in 1970 to the lowest level of 0.01 per 100.000 in 2009. However, reduction of vaccine-induced protection and reduced natural boosting of circulating Bordetella pertussis are likely to increase the susceptibility of the population. As a result, morbidity rate increased from 0.09 per 100.000 to 0.41 per 100.000 in 2015 compared to the previous year. The aim of this epidemiological study was to determine the seroprevalence of pertussis toxin (PT) antibodies among healthy people and its association with various social determinants in Manisa province in Turkey, 6 years after aP replaced wP vaccine. The study was conducted as a cross-sectional study with a sample of 1250 people that was randomly selected from the over 2 years of age population in Manisa in 2014. Seroprevalence of PT antibody was determined as the dependent variable of the study. Independent variables of the study were; gender, age, migration in the last 5 years, occupational class, perceived income, house ownership, number of people per room, annually per capita equivalent income. The presence of anti-PT IgG was detected by quantitatively using a commercially available ELISA kit. The antibody levels were categorized into groups according to pertussis infection or vaccination immune response status. The groups consisted of undetectable (< 5 IU/ml), mid-range (5-< 62.5 IU/ml: more than one year previously), high (62.5-< 125: with in 12 months) and very high (≥ 125 IU/ml: with in 6 months) antibody levels. The test results with ≥ 5 IU/ml were defined as seropositive. Level > 100 IU/ml detected among adolescent and adult participants indicated acute or recently recovered pertussis infection. Chi-square test was used to evaluate association between social determinants and pertussis seropositivity. The seroprevalence of the whole study population was 58.1% (95% CI 55.32-60.79) and no association was found with any of the social determinants. The highest seroprevalence was found among 2-9 age group (68.3%) followed by 70-79 age group (63.5%). The lowest seroprevalence was found among 20-29 age group (50.9%) followed by 10-19 age group (51.6%). When seropositivity levels according to ages were compared, it was found that there was a decrease one year after the first vaccination at 2nd, 4th and 6th months and the booster at the 6th year, with a lowest rate (19%) in 11 year-old. The highest seropositivity (77.3%) with a level of >100 IU/ml (13.6%) were detected at age 15 among all adolescent and adult participants. Adding an adolescent booster to immunization schedule and recommendation of vaccine to elderly people should be considered to reduce the incidence of pertussis disease in Turkey.

Seroprevalence and social determinants of varicella in Turkey

Background In Turkey, varicella vaccine was introduced into routine childhood immunization in 2013, with a single dose administered to children aged 12 months. However, there is limited information on the morbidity (incidence and seroprevalence), mortality and burden of disease of varicella in the overall Turkish population. Aim To determine varicella seroprevalence and its social determinants in Manisa Province, Turkey in children aged > 2 years before single-dose varicella vaccination was introduced in 2013. Methods The presence of anti varicella-zoster virus IgG antibodies was determined using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay in serum samples collected from 1250 participants. Results The overall seroprevalence was 92.8% and the seroprevalence was > 90% among all age groups except 2-9 years (55.7%). Seroprevalence was significantly associated with family size, annual per capita equivalent income, number of people per room and education level. After adjusting by age, only education level remained significantly associated with seroprevalence, reflecting the early age effect. Conclusion High seroprevalance depends on natural exposure to the infectious agent itself and is not associated with social determinants. High vaccine coverage should be maintained for effective varicella control and switching to a 2-dose schedule may also be considered to reduce the number and size of outbreaks in the Turkish population.

The use of pre-test and post-test probability values as criteria before selecting patients to undergo coronary angiography in patients who have ischemic findings on myocardial perfusion scintigraphy

Objective: Myocardial perfusion scintigraphy (MPS) is a diagnostic test which is frequently used in the diagnosis of coronary heart disease (CHD). MPS is generally interpreted as ischemia present or absent; however, it has a power in predicting the disease, similar to other diagnostic tests. In this study, we aimed to assist in directing the high-risk patients to undergo coronary angiography (CA) primarily by evaluating patients without prior CHD history with pre-test and post-test probabilities. Methods: The study was designed as a retrospective study. Between January 2008 and July 2011, 139 patients with positive MPS results and followed by CA recently (<6 months) were evaluated from patient files. Patients’ pre-test probabilities based on the Diamond and Forrester method and the likelihood ratios that were obtained from the literature were used to calculate the patients’ post-exercise and post-MPS probabilities. Patients were evaluated in risk groups as low, intermediate, and high, and an ROC curve analysis was performed for the post-MPS probabilities. Results: Coronary artery stenosis (CAS) was determined in 59 patients (42.4%). A significant difference was determined between the risk groups according to CAS, both for the pre-test and post-test probabilities (p<0.001, p=0.024). The ROC analysis provided a cut-off value of 80.4% for post-MPS probability in predicting CAS with 67.9% sensitivity and 77.8% specificity. Conclusion: When the post-MPS probability is ≥80% in patients who have reversible perfusion defects on MPS, we suggest interpreting the MPS as “high probability positive” to improve the selection of true-positive patients to undergo CA, and these patients should be primarily recommended CA.