Ali Mirchi

Synthesis of System Dynamics Tools for Holistic Conceptualization of Water Resources Problems

Out-of-context analysis of water resources systems can result in unsustainable management strategies. To address this problem, systems thinking seeks to understand interactions among the subsystems driving a system’s overall behavior. System dynamics, a method for operationalizing systems thinking, facilitates holistic understanding of water resources systems, and strategic decision making. The approach also facilitates participatory modeling, and analysis of the system’s behavioral trends, essential to sustainable management. The field of water resources has not utilized the full capacity of system dynamics in the thinking phase of integrated water resources studies. We advocate that the thinking phase of modeling applications is critically important, and that system dynamics offers unique qualitative tools that improve understanding of complex problems. Thus, this paper describes the utility of system dynamics for holistic water resources planning and management by illustrating the fundamentals of the approach. Using tangible examples, we provide an overview of Causal Loop and Stock and Flow Diagrams, reference modes of dynamic behavior, and system archetypes to demonstrate the use of these qualitative tools for holistic conceptualization of water resources problems. Finally, we present a summary of the potential benefits as well as caveats of qualitative system dynamics for water resources decision making.

Iran’s Socio-economic Drought: Challenges of a Water-Bankrupt Nation

Iran is currently experiencing serious water problems. Frequent droughts coupled with over-abstraction of surface and groundwater through a large network of hydraulic infrastructure and deep wells have escalated the nation’s water situation to a critical level. This is evidenced by drying lakes, rivers and wetlands, declining groundwater levels, land subsidence, water quality degradation, soil erosion, desertification and more frequent dust storms. This paper overviews the major drivers of Iran’s water problems. It is argued that while climatic changes and economic sanctions are commonly blamed as the main drivers of water problems, Iran is mainly suffering from a socio-economic drought—i.e. “water bankruptcy,” where water demand exceeds the natural water supply. In theory, this problem can be resolved by re-establishing the balance between water supply and demand through developing additional sources of water supply and implementing aggressive water demand reduction plans. Nevertheless, the current structure of the water governance system in Iran and the absence of a comprehensive understanding of the root causes of the problem leave minimal hope of developing sustainable solutions to Iran’s unprecedented water problems.

Climate Change Impacts on California’s Water Resources

While California’s water resources and infrastructure are already facing critical challenges in terms of providing Californians with adequate water supply, numerous studies have demonstrated the unfavorable impacts of climate change on the state’s water supply system. As such, observed temperature increases, changing precipitation patterns, variations in runoff timing and magnitude resulting from changes in snow accumulation and melt characteristics, and recent droughts in California may be partly attributable to changing hydro-climatic conditions. Hence, from a water supply standpoint, the study of climate change and consequent hydrologic variability bear important implications for water resources planning and management in California. This chapter aims to illustrate how climate change and its associated impacts have affected or are expected to affect California’s water resources. Additionally, implications for water infrastructure and a summary of strategies for adaptation to climate change are presented.

A Systems Approach to Holistic Total Maximum Daily Load Policy: Case of Lake Allegan, Michigan

AbstractSystems thinking and system dynamics simulation can provide insights for developing effective plans to protect the environmental integrity of natural systems impacted by human activities. In this study, a system archetype known as growth and underinvestment is hypothesized to explain the eutrophication problem of Lake Allegan in Michigan and identify policy leverage points for mitigation. An integrated system dynamics model is developed to simulate the interaction between key socioeconomic subsystems and natural processes driving eutrophication. The model is applied to holistically characterize the lake’s recovery from its hypereutrophic state and assess a number of proposed total maximum daily load (TMDL) reduction policies, including phosphorus load reductions from point sources and nonpoint sources. It is shown that for a TMDL plan to be effective, it should be considered a component of a continuous sustainability process, addressing the functionality of dynamic feedback relationships between s...

Water resources management in a homogenizing world: Averting the Growth and Underinvestment trajectory

Biotic homogenization, a de facto symptom of a global biodiversity crisis, underscores the urgency of reforming water resources management to focus on the health and viability of ecosystems. Global population and economic growth, coupled with inadequate investment in maintenance of ecological systems, threaten to degrade environmental integrity and ecosystem services that support the global socioeconomic system, indicative of a system governed by the Growth and Underinvestment (G&U) archetype. Water resources management is linked to biotic homogenization and degradation of system integrity through alteration of water systems, ecosystem dynamics, and composition of the biota. Consistent with the G&U archetype, water resources planning primarily treats ecological considerations as exogenous constraints rather than integral, dynamic, and responsive parts of the system. It is essential that the ecological considerations be made objectives of water resources development plans to facilitate the analysis of feedbacks and potential trade-offs between socioeconomic gains and ecological losses. We call for expediting a shift to ecosystem-based management of water resources, which requires a better understanding of the dynamics and links between water resources management actions, ecological side-effects, and associated long-term ramifications for sustainability. To address existing knowledge gaps, models that include dynamics and estimated thresholds for regime shifts or ecosystem degradation need to be developed. Policy levers for implementation of ecosystem-based water resources management include shifting away from growth-oriented supply management, better demand management, increased public awareness, and institutional reform that promotes adaptive and transdisciplinary management approaches.

China’s Booming Hydropower: Systems Modeling Challenges and Opportunities

China has been experiencing an unprecedented hydropower boom since 2000. By the end of 2015, the nation’s cumulative installed hydropower capacity was four times larger than that of the United States (Uria-Martinez et al. 2015), reaching 320 gigawatts (GW), accounting for 26% of the global hydropower capacity (IHA 2016). As a pace-setter for producing electricity from renewable energies (Observ’ER 2013), China has entered a new era of hydropower generation made possible by a series of massive projects with unique features, including the world’s largest hydropower station (Three Gorges, 22.5 GW), the largest hydro-turbine unit (800 MW), and the largest number of giant cascaded hydropower systems (10 basins having cascaded systems with capacities more than 10 GW, the largest one holding 32 GW in 2015). To add to this list, the country boasts the largest hydropower aggregation in one regional power grid (China Southern Power Grid, 100 GW in 2015), as well as the largest interprovincial hydropower transmission capacity (73.8 GW in 2015, 100 GW by 2020). Managing such a complex hydropower network is a mammoth task on the edge of engineering and sciences. This paper outlines the challenges associated with China’s large-scale hydropower system development, providing critical insights in three topical areas of hydrypower generation, transmission, and absorption. The paper also highlights areas where the long and rich history of water resources systems research and state-of-the-art modeling approaches can help address these challenges. Hydropower Generation

System-Dynamics Approach to Evaluate Climate Change Adaptation Strategies for Iran's Zayandeh-Rud Water System

This study aims to evaluate climate change adaptation strategies for the ZayandehRud water system located in central Iran. A probabilistic multi-model ensemble scenario is used to characterize uncertainties in climate change projections for the study period (2015–2044). The Zayandeh-Rud Watershed Management and Sustainability Model (ZRW-MSM) is run under an ensemble scenario with different uncertainty levels to evaluate the effects of climate change on the Zayandeh-Rud water system and to identify effective adaptation strategies to minimize these effects. ZRW-MSM is a system dynamics model that captures the interrelations between the basin’s hydrologic, socioeconomic, and agricultural sub-systems. This model can provide insights about the behavior trends of the basin’s sub-systems under climate change impacts. If current water management policies hold into the future, GavKhouni Marsh, an important ecosystem will severely degrade because of the lack of environmental flows, which will likely aggravate with climate change. Results indicate that supply oriented strategies (water transfer) alone are not effective in mitigating climate change impacts on different use sectors. Nevertheless, when combined with effective water demand management, these measures can alleviate climate change-related anthropogenic water stress in the basin.

A hydro-economic model of South Florida water resources system

South Floridas water infrastructure and ecosystems are under pressure from socio-economic growth. Understanding the regions water resources management tradeoffs is essential for developing effective adaptation strategies to cope with emerging challenges such as climate change and sea level rise, which are expected to affect many other regions in the future. We describe a network-based hydro-economic optimization model of the system to investigate the tradeoffs, incorporating the economic value of water in urban and agricultural sectors and economic damages due to urban flooding while also accounting for water supply to sustain fragile ecosystems such as the Everglades and coastal estuaries. Results illustrate that maintaining high reliability of urban water supply under scenarios of reduced water availability (i.e., drier climate conditions) may trigger economic losses to the Everglades Agricultural Area, which will likely become more vulnerable as competition over scarce water resources increases. More pronounced economic losses are expected in urban and agricultural areas when flows to the Everglades are prioritized. Flow targets for coastal estuaries are occasionally exceeded under optimal flow allocations to various demand nodes, indicating that additional storage may be needed to maintain the environmental integrity of the estuarine ecosystems. Wetter climate conditions, on the other hand, generally lead to increased flows throughout the system with positive effects on meeting water demands, although flood mitigation efforts will necessitate additional releases to the estuaries. Strengths and limitations of the hydro-economic model are discussed.

Sustainable Energy Planning with Respect to Resource Use Efficiency: Insights for the United States

Increasing population, rising energy demand, global warming, and energy insecurity are recognized as the main motives for the rush to expand renewable energy sources in the United States. Nevertheless, the unintended impacts on major natural resource system components such as land and water make some of the renewable energies undesirable when sustainability of energy sources is considered. This study uses a multi-criteria decision making approach for evaluating the overall resource use efficiency of energy sources with respect to four criteria: carbon footprint, water footprint, land footprint, and cost. Given that the importance of these criteria can vary based on the availability of natural and economic resources at the regional level, weights of these criteria must be adjusted accordingly. Evaluation of the resource use efficiency of different energy sources with respect to regional resource availability limitations across the United States indicates that the desirability of energy sources is highly sensitive to regional conditions. The study’s findings demonstrate that not all renewable energies are necessarily sustainable when regional resource availabilities are considered. Thus, consideration of resource availabilities at regional scale is essential for sustainable energy planning and management.

Value of irrigation water usage in South Florida agriculture

This study estimates economic loss from South Florida croplands when usage of agricultural irrigation water is altered. In South Florida, 78% of the total value of farm products sold is comprised of cropland products. The majority of Florida citrus and sugarcane are produced in the area, and agricultural irrigation was the largest sector of water use in 2010, followed by public water supply. The Florida Department of Environmental Protection announced in December 2012 that traditional sources of fresh groundwater will have difficulty meeting all of the additional demands by 2030. A shortage of water will impose significant damage to the rural and agriculture economy in Florida, which may lead to higher prices and costs for consumers to purchase citrus or other Florida agriculture products. This paper presents a methodology for estimating economic loss when usage of irrigation water is altered, and examines economic values of irrigation water use for South Florida cropland. The efficient allocation of irrigation water across South Florida cropland is also investigated in order to reduce economic cost to the South Florida agricultural sector.