Aliasghar Ahmad Kiadaliri

Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980-2016

The last 37 years have featured declining rates of communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases across all quintiles of SDI, with faster than expected gains for many locations relative to their SDI. A global shift towards deaths at older ages suggests success in reducing many causes of early death. YLLs have increased globally for causes such as diabetes mellitus or some neoplasms, and in some locations for causes such as drug use disorders, and conflict and terrorism. Increasing levels of YLLs may reflect outcomes from conditions that required high levels of care but for which effective treatments remain elusive, potentially increasing costs to health systems.Summary Background Monitoring levels and trends in premature mortality is crucial to understanding how societies can address prominent sources of early death. The Global Burden of Disease 2016 Study (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 264 causes in 195 locations from 1980 to 2016. This assessment includes evaluation of the expected epidemiological transition with changes in development and where local patterns deviate from these trends. Methods We estimated cause-specific deaths and years of life lost (YLLs) by age, sex, geography, and year. YLLs were calculated from the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. We used the GBD cause of death database composed of: vital registration (VR) data corrected for under-registration and garbage coding; national and subnational verbal autopsy (VA) studies corrected for garbage coding; and other sources including surveys and surveillance systems for specific causes such as maternal mortality. To facilitate assessment of quality, we reported on the fraction of deaths assigned to GBD Level 1 or Level 2 causes that cannot be underlying causes of death (major garbage codes) by location and year. Based on completeness, garbage coding, cause list detail, and time periods covered, we provided an overall data quality rating for each location with scores ranging from 0 stars (worst) to 5 stars (best). We used robust statistical methods including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) to generate estimates for each location, year, age, and sex. We assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific deaths in relation to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of average income per capita, educational attainment, and total fertility, with locations grouped into quintiles by SDI. Relative to GBD 2015, we expanded the GBD cause hierarchy by 18 causes of death for GBD 2016. Findings The quality of available data varied by location. Data quality in 25 countries rated in the highest category (5 stars), while 48, 30, 21, and 44 countries were rated at each of the succeeding data quality levels. Vital registration or verbal autopsy data were not available in 27 countries, resulting in the assignment of a zero value for data quality. Deaths from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) represented 72·3% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 71·2–73·2) of deaths in 2016 with 19·3% (18·5–20·4) of deaths in that year occurring from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases and a further 8·43% (8·00–8·67) from injuries. Although age-standardised rates of death from NCDs decreased globally between 2006 and 2016, total numbers of these deaths increased; both numbers and age-standardised rates of death from CMNN causes decreased in the decade 2006–16—age-standardised rates of deaths from injuries decreased but total numbers varied little. In 2016, the three leading global causes of death in children under-5 were lower respiratory infections, neonatal preterm birth complications, and neonatal encephalopathy due to birth asphyxia and trauma, combined resulting in 1·80 million deaths (95% UI 1·59 million to 1·89 million). Between 1990 and 2016, a profound shift toward deaths at older ages occurred with a 178% (95% UI 176–181) increase in deaths in ages 90–94 years and a 210% (208–212) increase in deaths older than age 95 years. The ten leading causes by rates of age-standardised YLL significantly decreased from 2006 to 2016 (median annualised rate of change was a decrease of 2·89%); the median annualised rate of change for all other causes was lower (a decrease of 1·59%) during the same interval. Globally, the five leading causes of total YLLs in 2016 were cardiovascular diseases; diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; neoplasms; neonatal disorders; and HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis. At a finer level of disaggregation within cause groupings, the ten leading causes of total YLLs in 2016 were ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, road injuries, malaria, neonatal preterm birth complications, HIV/AIDS, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and neonatal encephalopathy due to birth asphyxia and trauma. Ischaemic heart disease was the leading cause of total YLLs in 113 countries for men and 97 countries for women. Comparisons of observed levels of YLLs by countries, relative to the level of YLLs expected on the basis of SDI alone, highlighted distinct regional patterns including the greater than expected level of YLLs from malaria and from HIV/AIDS across sub-Saharan Africa; diabetes mellitus, especially in Oceania; interpersonal violence, notably within Latin America and the Caribbean; and cardiomyopathy and myocarditis, particularly in eastern and central Europe. The level of YLLs from ischaemic heart disease was less than expected in 117 of 195 locations. Other leading causes of YLLs for which YLLs were notably lower than expected included neonatal preterm birth complications in many locations in both south Asia and southeast Asia, and cerebrovascular disease in western Europe. Interpretation The past 37 years have featured declining rates of communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases across all quintiles of SDI, with faster than expected gains for many locations relative to their SDI. A global shift towards deaths at older ages suggests success in reducing many causes of early death. YLLs have increased globally for causes such as diabetes mellitus or some neoplasms, and in some locations for causes such as drug use disorders, and conflict and terrorism. Increasing levels of YLLs might reflect outcomes from conditions that required high levels of care but for which effective treatments remain elusive, potentially increasing costs to health systems. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Geographic distribution of need and access to health care in rural population: an ecological study in Iran

IntroductionEquity in access to and utilization of health services is a common goal of policy-makers in most countries. The current study aimed to evaluate the distribution of need and access to health care services among Irans rural population between 2006 and 2009.MethodsCensus data on populations characteristics in each province were obtained from the Statistical Centre of Iran and National Organization for civil registration. Data about the Rural Health Houses (RHHs) were obtained from the Ministry of Health. The Health Houses-to-rural population ratio (RHP), crude birth rate (CBR) and crude mortality rate (CMR) in rural population were calculated in order to compare their distribution among the provinces. Lorenz curves of RHHs, CMR and CBR were plotted and their decile ratio, Gini Index and Index of Dissimilarity were calculated. Moreover, Spearman rank-order correlation was used to examine the relation between RHHs and CMR and CBR.ResultsThere were substantial differences in RHHs, CMR and CBR across the provinces. CMR and CBR experienced changes toward more equal distributions between 2006 and 2009, while inverse trend was seen for RHHs. Excluding three provinces with markedly changes in data between 2006 and 2009 as outliers, did not change observed trends. Moreover; there was a significant positive relationship between CMR and RHP in 2009 and a significant negative association between CBR and RHP in 2006 and 2009. When three provinces with outliers were excluded, these significant associations were disappeared.ConclusionResults showed that there were significant variations in the distribution of RHHs, CMR and CBR across the country. Moreover, the distribution of RHHs did not reflect the needs for health care in terms of CMR and CBR in the study period.

Alcohol drinking cessation and the risk of laryngeal and pharyngeal cancers: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Objective To evaluate the effect of alcohol cessation on the risk of developing laryngeal and pharyngeal cancers, combining available evidence in the scientific literature in a meta-analysis. Methods A systematic literature review was conducted, and a meta-analysis was applied on the retrieved studies. The generalised least squares method was used to estimate the trend from dose-response data to assess changes in the risks of laryngeal and pharyngeal cancers after drinking cessation. Results A total of 9 case-control studies were included in the meta-analysis (4 and 8 estimates for laryngeal and pharyngeal cancers, respectively). On average, alcohol drinking cessation was associated with a 2% yearly reduction in the risk of developing laryngeal and pharyngeal cancers. There was a considerable heterogeneity between the studies of pharyngeal cancer, but this was mostly due to two studies. The increased risk of laryngeal and pharyngeal cancers caused by alcohol was reversible; the time periods until the risks became equal to those of never drinkers were 36 (95% CI 11–106) and 39 (95% CI 13–103) years, respectively. Moreover, 5 years of drinking cessation was associated with a reduction of around 15% in the alcohol-related elevated risk of laryngeal and pharyngeal cancers. Conclusion Although a long time period is required to completely eliminate the alcohol-related elevated risk of laryngeal and pharyngeal cancers, a substantial risk reduction can be seen in the short term (5–10 years), and drinking cessation should therefore be encouraged to reduce the incidence of these cancers.

Overall, gender and social inequalities in suicide mortality in Iran, 2006-2010: a time trend province-level study

Objectives Suicide is a major global health problem imposing a considerable burden on populations in terms of disability-adjusted life years. There has been an increasing trend in fatal and attempted suicide in Iran over the past few decades. The aim of the current study was to assess overall, gender and social inequalities across Iran’s provinces during 2006–2010. Design Ecological study. Setting The data on distribution of population at the provinces were obtained from the Statistical Centre of Iran. The data on the annual number of deaths caused by suicide in each province were gathered from the Iranian Forensic Medicine Organization. Methods Suicide mortality rate per 100 000 population was calculated. Human Development Index was used as the provinces’ social rank. Gini coefficient, rate ratio and Kunst and Mackenbach relative index of inequality were used to assess overall, gender and social inequalities, respectively. Annual percentage change was calculated using Joinpoint regression. Results Suicide mortality has slightly increased in Iran during 2006–2010. There was a substantial and constant overall inequality across the country over the study period. Male-to-female rate ratio was 2.34 (95% CI 1.45 to 3.79) over the same period. There were social inequalities in suicide mortality in favour of people in better-off provinces. In addition, there was an increasing trend in these social disparities over time, although it was not statistically significant. Conclusions We found substantial overall, gender and social disparities in the distribution of suicide mortality across the provinces in Iran. The findings showed that men in the provinces with low socioeconomic status are at higher risk of suicide mortality. Further analyses are needed to explain these disparities.

Burden of musculoskeletal disorders in the Eastern Mediterranean Region, 1990-2013: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

Objectives We used findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 to report the burden of musculoskeletal disorders in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR). Methods The burden of musculoskeletal disorders was calculated for the EMRs 22 countries between 1990 and 2013. A systematic analysis was performed on mortality and morbidity data to estimate prevalence, death, years of live lost, years lived with disability and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Results For musculoskeletal disorders, the crude DALYs rate per 100 000 increased from 1297.1 (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 924.3–1703.4) in 1990 to 1606.0 (95% UI 1141.2–2130.4) in 2013. During 1990–2013, the total DALYs of musculoskeletal disorders increased by 105.2% in the EMR compared with a 58.0% increase in the rest of the world. The burden of musculoskeletal disorders as a proportion of total DALYs increased from 2.4% (95% UI 1.7–3.0) in 1990 to 4.7% (95% UI 3.6–5.8) in 2013. The range of point prevalence (per 1000) among the EMR countries was 28.2–136.0 for low back pain, 27.3–49.7 for neck pain, 9.7–37.3 for osteoarthritis (OA), 0.6–2.2 for rheumatoid arthritis and 0.1–0.8 for gout. Low back pain and neck pain had the highest burden in EMR countries. Conclusions This study shows a high burden of musculoskeletal disorders, with a faster increase in EMR compared with the rest of the world. The reasons for this faster increase need to be explored. Our findings call for incorporating prevention and control programmes that should include improving health data, addressing risk factors, providing evidence-based care and community programmes to increase awareness.

Frontier-based techniques in measuring hospital efficiency in Iran: a systematic review and meta-regression analysis

BackgroundIn recent years, there has been growing interest in measuring the efficiency of hospitals in Iran and several studies have been conducted on the topic. The main objective of this paper was to review studies in the field of hospital efficiency and examine the estimated technical efficiency (TE) of Iranian hospitals.MethodsPersian and English databases were searched for studies related to measuring hospital efficiency in Iran. Ordinary least squares (OLS) regression models were applied for statistical analysis. The PRISMA guidelines were followed in the search process.ResultsA total of 43 efficiency scores from 29 studies were retrieved and used to approach the research question. Data envelopment analysis was the principal frontier efficiency method in the estimation of efficiency scores. The pooled estimate of mean TE was 0.846 (±0.134). There was a considerable variation in the efficiency scores between the different studies performed in Iran. There were no differences in efficiency scores between data envelopment analysis (DEA) and stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) techniques. The reviewed studies are generally similar and suffer from similar methodological deficiencies, such as no adjustment for case mix and quality of care differences. The results of OLS regression revealed that studies that included more variables and more heterogeneous hospitals generally reported higher TE. Larger sample size was associated with reporting lower TE.ConclusionsThe features of frontier-based techniques had a profound impact on the efficiency scores among Iranian hospital studies. These studies suffer from major methodological deficiencies and were of sub-optimal quality, limiting their validity and reliability. It is suggested that improving data collection and processing in Iranian hospital databases may have a substantial impact on promoting the quality of research in this field.

Health utilities of type 2 diabetes-related complications: a cross-sectional study in sweden.

This study estimates health utilities (HU) in Sweden for a range of type 2 diabetes-related complications using EQ-5D and two alternative tariffs (UK and Swedish) from 1757 patients with type 2 diabetes from the Swedish National Diabetes Register (NDR). Ordinary least squares were used for statistical analysis. Lower HU was found for female gender, younger age at diagnosis, higher BMI, and history of complications. Microvascular and macrovascular complications had the most negative effect on HU among women and men, respectively. The greatest decline in HU was associated with kidney disorders (−0.114) using the UK tariff and stroke (−0.059) using the Swedish tariff. Multiple stroke and non-acute ischaemic heart disease had higher negative effect than a single event. With the UK tariff, each year elapsed since the last microvascular/macrovascular complication was associated with 0.013 and 0.007 units higher HU, respectively. We found important heterogeneities in effects of complications on HU in terms of gender, multiple event, and time. The Swedish tariff gave smaller estimates and so may result in less cost-effective interventions than the UK tariff. These results suggest that incorporating subgroup-specific HU in cost-utility analyses might provide more insight for informed decision-making.

Pure and social disparities in distribution of dentists: a cross-sectional province-based study in iran.

During past decades, the number of dentists has continuously increased in Iran. Beside the quantity, the distribution of dentists affects the oral health status of population. The current study aimed to assess the pure and social disparities in distribution of dentists across the provinces in Iran in 2009. Data on provinces’ characteristics, including population and social situation, were obtained from multiple sources. The disparity measures (including Gini coefficient, index of dissimilarity, Gaswirth index of disparity and relative index of inequality (RII)) and pairwise correlations were used to evaluate the pure and social disparities in the number of dentists in Iran. On average, there were 28 dentists per 100,000 population in the country. There were substantial pure disparities in the distribution of dentists across the provinces in Iran. The unadjusted and adjusted RII values were 3.82 and 2.13, respectively; indicating area social disparity in favor of people in better-off provinces. There were strong positive correlations between density of dentists and better social rank. It is suggested that the results of this study should be considered in conducting plans for redistribution of dentists in the country. In addition, further analyses are needed to explain these disparities.

Predicting Changes in Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Type 2 Diabetes in the Post-UKPDS Era: Longitudinal Analysis of the Swedish National Diabetes Register.

The aim of the current study was to provide updated time-path equations for risk factors of type-2-diabetes-related cardiovascular complications for application in risk calculators and health economic models. Observational data from the Swedish National Diabetes Register were analysed using Generalized Method of Moments estimation for dynamic panel models (N = 5,043, aged 25–70 years at diagnosis in 2001–2004). Validation was performed using persons diagnosed in 2005 (n = 414). Results were compared with the UKPDS outcome model. The value of the risk factor in the previous year was the main predictor of the current value of the risk factor. People with high (low) values of risk factor in the year of diagnosis experienced a decreasing (increasing) trend over time. BMI was associated with elevations in all risk factors, while older age at diagnosis and being female generally corresponded to lower levels of risk factors. Updated time-path equations predicted risk factors more precisely than UKPDS outcome model equations in a Swedish population. Findings indicate new time paths for cardiovascular risk factors in the post-UKPDS era. The validation analysis confirmed the importance of updating the equations as new data become available; otherwise, the results of health economic analyses may be biased.

Towards renewed health economic simulation of type 2 diabetes: risk equations for first and second cardiovascular events from Swedish register data.

Objective Predicting the risk of future events is an essential part of health economic simulation models. In pursuit of this goal, the current study aims to predict the risk of developing first and second acute myocardial infarction, heart failure, non-acute ischaemic heart disease, and stroke after diagnosis in patients with type 2 diabetes, using data from the Swedish National Diabetes Register. Material and Methods Register data on 29,034 patients with type 2 diabetes were analysed over five years of follow up (baseline 2003). To develop and validate the risk equations, the sample was randomly divided into training (75%) and test (25%) subsamples. The Weibull proportional hazard model was used to estimate the coefficients of the risk equations, and these were validated in both the training and the test samples. Results In total, 4,547 first and 2,418 second events were observed during the five years of follow up. Experiencing a first event substantially elevated the risk of subsequent events. There were heterogeneities in the effects of covariates within as well as between events; for example, while for females the hazard ratio of having a first acute myocardial infarction was 0.79 (0.70–0.90), the hazard ratio of a second was 1.21 (0.98–1.48). The hazards of second events decreased as the time since first events elapsed. The equations showed adequate calibration and discrimination (C statistics range: 0.70–0.84 in test samples). Conclusion The accuracy of health economic simulation models of type 2 diabetes can be improved by ensuring that they account for the heterogeneous effects of covariates on the risk of first and second cardiovascular events. Thus it is important to extend such models by including risk equations for second cardiovascular events.