Alice M. Grimm

Precipitation Anomalies in Southern Brazil Associated with El Niño and La Niña Events

The impact of El Nino and La Nina events (warm and cold phases of the Southern Oscillation) on rainfall over southern Brazil is investigated through the use of a large dataset of monthly precipitation from 250 stations. This region is partly dominated by rough orography and presents different climatic regimes of rainfall. As previous global studies on Southern Oscillation-precipitation relationships used data from only two stations in southern Brazil, this region was not included in the area of consistent Southern Oscillation-related precipitation in southeastern South America. The present analysis is based on the method by Ropelewski and Halpert, the sensitivity of which is assessed for this region. The spatial structure of the rainfall anomalies associated with warm (cold) events is analyzed and subregions with coherent anomalies are determined. Their distribution indicates the influence of relief, latitude, and proximity to the ocean. These areas are subjected to further analysis to determine the seasons of largest anomalies and assess their consistency during warm (cold) events. The whole of southern Brazil was found to have strong and consistent precipitation anomalies associated with those events. Their magnitude is even larger than in Argentina and Uruguay. All of the subregions have consistent wet anomalies during the austral spring of the warm event year, with a pronounced peak in November. The southeastern part also shows a consistent tendency to higher than average rainfall during the austral winter of the following year. There is also a consistent tendency to dryness in the year before a warm event. During the spring of cold event years strong consistent dry anomalies prevail over the whole region, also with maximum magnitude in November. They are even stronger and more consistent than the wet anomalies in warm event years. Consistent anomalies do not occur over large areas in the years before and after cold events. The wet anomalies during the austral spring of the warm event year weaken and even reverse during the following January. The same tendency, though not so clear, is observable in the dry anomalies of cold events. The seasons of largest anomalies disclosed by this study differ from those found by previous global studies for other regions in southeastern South America. This study expands the area of consistent warm (cold) event-related precipitation defined by previous studies in southeastern South America by including a region of larger anomalies, and provides a spatial and temporal refinement to the warm (cold) event-precipitation relationship.

The El Niño Impact on the Summer Monsoon in Brazil: Regional Processes versus Remote Influences

The El Nino impact on Brazils summer monsoon has not been adequately assessed through seasonal analysis because it shows significant subseasonal variations. In this study, the El Nino influence on the summer monsoon circulation, rainfall, and temperature is analyzed with monthly resolution, using data from a dense network of stations. The expected precipitation percentiles during the monsoon season of El Nino (EN) events are calculated, as well as anomalies of surface temperature and thermodynamic parameters. This information is analyzed jointly with anomaly composites of several circulation parameters. The analysis shows that some precipitation and circulation anomalies, which are consistent and important during part of the season, are smoothed out in a seasonal analysis. There are abrupt changes of anomalies within the summer monsoon season, suggesting the prevalence of regional processes over remote influences during part of the season. The probable role of remote influences and regional processes is assessed. The anomalous heat sources associated with El Nino perturb the Walker and Hadley circulations over South America and generate Rossby wave trains that produce important effects in the subtropics and extratropics. In the early summer monsoon season, remotely produced atmospheric perturbations prevail over Brazil. Anticyclonic low-level anomalies predominate over central-east Brazil, in the Tropics and subtropics, due to the subsidence over the Amazon and to Rossby waves in the subtropics. Easterly moisture inflow from the Atlantic is favored, but diverted toward northern South America (SA) and south Brazil. There are negative precipitation anomalies in north and central-east Brazil and positive ones in south Brazil. These precipitation anomalies are favored by the perturbation in the Walker and Hadley circulation over the east Pacific and South America, and by a Rossby wave train over southern SA that originates in the eastern Pacific. In January, with the enhancement of the continental subtropical heat low by anomalous surface heating during the spring, there is anomalous low-level convergence and cyclonic circulation over southeast Brazil, while at the upper levels anomalies of divergence and anticyclonic circulation prevail. This anomalous circulation directs moisture flux toward central-east Brazil, causing moisture convergence in this region. A favorable thermodynamic structure enhances precipitation over central-east Brazil, the dry anomalies in north Brazil are displaced northward, and the anomalies in south Brazil almost disappear. In February, after the above-normal precipitation of January, the surface temperature anomalies turn negative and the precipitation diminishes in central-east Brazil. There are negative rainfall anomalies in north Brazil and in the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) and positive ones in south Brazil. Influence function analysis shows that while the anomalies of circulation over southeast Brazil in the spring of El Nino years are mostly due to remote influences from the tropical east Pacific, those in January are probably due to local influence. During this month the monsoonlike circulation is enhanced. Simultaneous and lagged correlation analysis of SST and rainfall in central-east Brazil shows that SST anomalies in the Atlantic Ocean off the southeastern coast of Brazil fluctuate on the same timescale as the circulation and precipitation anomalies.

ENSO and Extreme Rainfall Events in South America

Abstract The influence of the opposite phases of ENSO on the frequency of extreme rainfall events over South America is analyzed for each month of the ENSO cycle on the basis of a large set of daily station rainfall data and compared with the influence of ENSO on the monthly total rainfall. The analysis is carried out with station data and their gridded version and the results are consistent. Extreme events are defined as 3-day mean precipitation above the 90th percentile. The mean frequencies of extreme events are determined for each month and for each category of year (El Nino, La Nina, and neutral), and the differences between El Nino and neutral years and La Nina and neutral years are computed. Changes in the mean intensity of extreme events are also investigated. Significant ENSO signals in the frequency of extreme events are found over extensive regions of South America during different periods of the ENSO cycle. Although ENSO-related changes in intensity show less significance and spatial coherence...

Connection between Spring Conditions and Peak Summer Monsoon Rainfall in South America: Role of Soil Moisture, Surface Temperature, and Topography in Eastern Brazil

Abstract A link between peak summer monsoon rainfall in central-east Brazil, composing part of the South American monsoon core region, and antecedent conditions in spring is disclosed. Rainfall in this region during part of spring holds a significant inverse correlation with rainfall in peak summer, especially during ENSO years. A surface–atmosphere feedback hypothesis is proposed to explain this relationship: low spring precipitation leads to low spring soil moisture and high late spring surface temperature; this induces a topographically enhanced low-level anomalous convergence and cyclonic circulation over southeast Brazil that enhances the moisture flux from northern and central South America into central-east Brazil, setting up favorable conditions for excess rainfall. Antecedent wet conditions in spring lead to opposite anomalies. The main links in this hypothesis are confirmed through correlation analysis of observed data: spring precipitation is negatively correlated to late spring surface tempera...

Interannual variability and seasonal evolution of summer monsoon rainfall in South America.

Abstract The analysis of the interannual variability of the South American monsoon rainfall is carried out separately for austral spring and summer (and for November and January), based on a 40-yr station gauge dataset. Relationships between modes of variability in these seasons show the influence of antecedent conditions in spring (or November) on the evolution of the monsoon rainfall in peak summer (or January). In spring the first mode is dipolelike, with opposite loadings over central-eastern and southeastern South America. It is connected with ENSO. The second mode shows the highest loadings slightly south of the South Atlantic convergence zone. The leading mode of summer also features dipolelike oscillations between central-eastern and southeastern South America, but is not strongly connected with ENSO. The second mode represents the impact of ENSO, and the third is modulated by SST anomalies in the southern tropical Atlantic. Significant relationships are disclosed between the first dipolelike mode...

Spatiotemporal Variation in Shallow-Water Freshwater Fish Distribution and Abundance in a Large Subtropical Coastal Lagoon

Patos Lagoon is located off the southern Brazilian coast and represents one of the largest coastal lagoons in the world. We estimated hydrological and physicochemical conditions associated with spatial variation in the abundance and diversity of freshwater fishes along the lagoon, and inter-annual variability in abundances of freshwater fishes occurring in its estuarine zone. During our study, the region experienced two periods of average rainfall and two periods with above-average rainfall. The characids Astyanax eigenmaniorum and Oligosarcus jenynsii and the siluriform Parapimelodus nigribarbis were the most abundant freshwater fishes in the estuary during wet periods when water levels were higher and salinity was lower. Increases in abundance of these species in the estuarine area, all of which members of primary-division freshwater families, apparently were associated with pulses of reproduction and passive transport from freshwater habitats located near middle and upper lagoon reaches. Abundance of species from secondary freshwater families, such as poeciliids and cichlids, were less correlated with hydrological conditions, and their patterns of occurrence in the estuary suggest active migration from nearby freshwater habitats draining into this area. Findings indicate that freshwater discharge in the basin and expansion/retraction of freshwaters in the middle-upper lagoon determined patterns of freshwater fish abundance and species richness in the estuarine zone.

Comparison of 1982–1983 and 1997–1998 El Niño effects on the shallow-water fish assemblage of the Patos Lagoon estuary (Brazil)

Meteorological impacts of El Niño events of 1982–1983 and 1997–1998 were observed in locations throughout the world. In southern Brazil, El Niño events are associated with increased rainfall and higher freshwater discharge into Patos Lagoon, a large coastal lagoon that empties into the Atlantic Ocean. Based on interdecadal meteorological and biological data sets encompassing the two strongest El Niño events of the last 50 yr, we evaluated the hypothesis that El Niño-induced hydrological changes are a major driving force controlling the interannual variation in the structure and dynamics of fishes in the Patos Lagoon estuary. High rainfall in the drainage basin of the lagoon coincided with low salinity in the estuarine area during both El Niño episodes. Total rainfall in the drainage basin was higher (767 versus 711 mm) and near-zero salinity conditions in the estuarine area lasted about 3 mo longer during the 1997–1998 El Niño event compared with the 1982–1983 event. Hydrological changes triggered by both El Niño events had similar relationships to fish species composition and diversity patterns, but the 1997–1998 event appeared to have stronger effects on the species assemblage. Although shifts in species composition were qualitatively similar during the two El Niño events, distance between El Niño and non-El Niño assemblage multivariate centroids was greater during the 1996–2000 sampling period compared with the 1979–1983 period. We provide a conceptual model of the principal mechanisms and processes connecting the atmospheric-oceanographic interactions triggered by the El Niño phenomena and their effect on the estuarine fish assemblage.

Teleconnections into South America from the Tropics and Extratropics on Interannual and Intraseasonal Timescales

This chapter presents the mechanisms and the most important effects of tropics-extratropics and tropics-tropics atmospheric teleconnections with South America on intra-seasonal to interannual time scales. The basis for theoretical understanding of teleconnections is reviewed, as well as the observed Southern Hemisphere interannual and intraseasonal variability. The observed teleconnections with South America are described, indicating linkages between the tropics and extratropics and between different regions in the tropics. Possible mechanisms of these linkages are presented and some teleconnections are analyzed with Influence Functions. Special emphasis is placed on the teleconnections associated with ENSO on interannual time scales and the Madden Julian Oscillation on intraseasonal time scales.

Interdecadal Variability of the South American Precipitation in the Monsoon Season

AbstractInterdecadal variability modes of monsoon precipitation over South America (SA) are provided by a continental-scale rotated empirical orthogonal function analysis, and their connections to well-known climatic indices and SST anomalies are examined. The analysis, carried out for austral spring and summer, uses a comprehensive set of station data assembled and verified for the period 1950–2000. The presented modes are robust, consistent with previous regional-scale studies and with modes obtained from longer time series over smaller domains. Opposite phases of the main modes show differences around 50% in monthly precipitation. There are significant relationships between the interdecadal variability in spring and summer, indicating local and remote influences. The first modes for both seasons are dipole-like, displaying opposite anomalies in central-east and southeast SA. They tend to reverse polarity from spring to summer. Yet the summer second mode and its related spring fourth mode, which affect ...

Evidences of El Niño effects on the mullet fishery of the Patos Lagoon estuary

Episodios El Nino ocorrem na regiao tropical do Oceano Pacifico e estao associados com o aumento da descarga continental de agua na Lagoa dos Patos (10.360 km2) e sua regiao estuarina (971 km2). A partir de um banco de dados meteorologicos e biologicos de longo prazo (1979-1983 e 1996-2000), este trabalho investiga as variacoes no recrutamento de juvenis e no desembarque da pesca artesanal da tainha (Mugil platanus) no estuario da Lagoa dos Patos e suas relacoes com anomalias regionais de chuva e anomalias locais de salinidade durante dois fortes episodios El Nino (1982-1983 e 1997-1998). Tanto os juvenis quanto a captura dos adultos na pesca artesanal diminuiram em abundância durante as chuvas excessivas e salinidades proximas a zero que prevaleceram no estuario durante ambos eventos climaticos. Duas hipoteses sao sugeridas para explicar os efeitos ocasionados pelo El Nino sobre as fases juvenis e adultas da tainha no estuario da Lagoa dos Patos. Primeiro, a elevada descarga continental durante forte eventos El Nino poderia afetar negativamente o transporte passivo de juvenis de tainha para o interior do estuario, o que levaria ao declinio de juvenis na regiao nesse periodo. Segundo, as salinidades proximas a zero durante varios meses no estuario durante forte eventos El Nino poderia acarretar maior dispersao dos cardumes de tainhas adultas durante a sua migracao reprodutiva para o mar, resultando em menores capturas pelos pescadores artesanais da regiao.