Alice M Turner

Mortality prediction in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease comparing the GOLD 2007 and 2011 staging systems: a pooled analysis of individual patient data

BACKGROUND There is no universal consensus on the best staging system for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Although documents (eg, the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease [GOLD] 2007) have traditionally used forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) for staging, clinical parameters have been added to some guidelines (eg, GOLD 2011) to improve patient management. As part of the COPD Cohorts Collaborative International Assessment (3CIA) initiative, we aimed to investigate how individual patients were categorised by GOLD 2007 and 2011, and compare the prognostic accuracy of the staging documents for mortality. METHODS We searched reports published from Jan 1, 2008, to Dec 31, 2014. Using data from cohorts that agreed to participate and had a minimum amount of information needed for GOLD 2007 and 2011, we did a patient-based pooled analysis of existing data. With use of raw data, we recalculated all participant assignments to GOLD 2007 I-IV classes, and GOLD 2011 A-D stages. We used survival analysis, C statistics, and non-parametric regression to model time-to-death data and compare GOLD 2007 and GOLD 2011 staging systems to predict mortality. FINDINGS We collected individual data for 15 632 patients from 22 COPD cohorts from seven countries, totalling 70 184 person-years. Mean age of the patients was 63·9 years (SD 10·1); 10 751 (69%) were men. Based on FEV1 alone (GOLD 2007), 2424 (16%) patients had mild (I), 7142 (46%) moderate (II), 4346 (28%) severe (III), and 1670 (11%) very severe (IV) disease. We compared staging with the GOLD 2007 document with that of the new GOLD 2011 system in 14 660 patients: 5548 (38%) were grade A, 2733 (19%) were grade B, 1835 (13%) were grade C, and 4544 (31%) were grade D. GOLD 2011 shifted the overall COPD severity distribution to more severe categories. There were nearly three times more COPD patients in stage D than in former stage IV (p<0·05). The predictive capacity for survival up to 10 years was significant for both systems (p<0·01) but area under the curves were only 0·623 (GOLD 2007) and 0·634 (GOLD 2011), and GOLD 2007 and 2011 did not differ significantly. We identified the percent predicted FEV1 thresholds of 85%, 55% and 35% as better to stage COPD severity for mortality, which are similar to the ones used previously. INTERPRETATION Neither GOLD COPD classification schemes have sufficient discriminatory power to be used clinically for risk classification at the individual level to predict total mortality for 3 years of follow-up and onwards. Increasing intensity of treatment of patients with COPD due to their GOLD 2011 reclassification is not known to improve health outcomes. Evidence-based thresholds should be searched when exploring the prognostic ability of current and new COPD multicomponent indices. FUNDING None.

Tuberculosis Incidence Correlates with Sunshine: An Ecological 28-Year Time Series Study

Background Birmingham is the largest UK city after London, and central Birmingham has an annual tuberculosis incidence of 80 per 100,000. We examined seasonality and sunlight as drivers of tuberculosis incidence. Hours of sunshine are seasonal, sunshine exposure is necessary for the production of vitamin D by the body and vitamin D plays a role in the host response to tuberculosis. Methods We performed an ecological study that examined tuberculosis incidence in Birmingham from Dec 1981 to Nov 2009, using publicly-available data from statutory tuberculosis notifications, and related this to the seasons and hours of sunshine (UK Meteorological Office data) using unmeasured component models. Results There were 9,739 tuberculosis cases over the study period. There was strong evidence for seasonality, with notifications being 24.1% higher in summer than winter (p<0.001). Winter dips in sunshine correlated with peaks in tuberculosis incidence six months later (4.7% increase in incidence for each 100 hours decrease in sunshine, p<0.001). Discussion and Conclusion A potential mechanism for these associations includes decreased vitamin D levels with consequent impaired host defence arising from reduced sunshine exposure in winter. This is the longest time series of any published study and our use of statutory notifications means this data is essentially complete. We cannot, however, exclude the possibility that another factor closely correlated with the seasons, other than sunshine, is responsible. Furthermore, exposure to sunlight depends not only on total hours of sunshine but also on multiple individual factors. Our results should therefore be considered hypothesis-generating. Confirmation of a potential causal relationship between winter vitamin D deficiency and summer peaks in tuberculosis incidence would require a randomized-controlled trial of the effect of vitamin D supplementation on future tuberculosis incidence.

Vitamin D deficiency contributes directly to the acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS)

Rationale Vitamin D deficiency has been implicated as a pathogenic factor in sepsis and intensive therapy unit mortality but has not been assessed as a risk factor for acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). Causality of these associations has never been demonstrated. Objectives To determine if ARDS is associated with vitamin D deficiency in a clinical setting and to determine if vitamin D deficiency in experimental models of ARDS influences its severity. Methods Human, murine and in vitro primary alveolar epithelial cell work were included in this study. Findings Vitamin D deficiency (plasma 25(OH)D levels <50 nmol/L) was ubiquitous in patients with ARDS and present in the vast majority of patients at risk of developing ARDS following oesophagectomy. In a murine model of intratracheal lipopolysaccharide challenge, dietary-induced vitamin D deficiency resulted in exaggerated alveolar inflammation, epithelial damage and hypoxia. In vitro, vitamin D has trophic effects on primary human alveolar epithelial cells affecting >600 genes. In a clinical setting, pharmacological repletion of vitamin D prior to oesophagectomy reduced the observed changes of in vivo measurements of alveolar capillary damage seen in deficient patients. Conclusions Vitamin D deficiency is common in people who develop ARDS. This deficiency of vitamin D appears to contribute to the development of the condition, and approaches to correct vitamin D deficiency in patients at risk of ARDS should be developed. Trial registration UKCRN ID 11994.

Supported self-management for patients with moderate to severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD): an evidence synthesis and economic analysis

BACKGROUND Self-management (SM) support for patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is variable in its coverage, content, method and timing of delivery. There is insufficient evidence for which SM interventions are the most effective and cost-effective. OBJECTIVES To undertake (1) a systematic review of the evidence for the effectiveness of SM interventions commencing within 6 weeks of hospital discharge for an exacerbation for COPD (review 1); (2) a systematic review of the qualitative evidence about patient satisfaction, acceptance and barriers to SM interventions (review 2); (3) a systematic review of the cost-effectiveness of SM support interventions within 6 weeks of hospital discharge for an exacerbation of COPD (review 3); (4) a cost-effectiveness analysis and economic model of post-exacerbation SM support compared with usual care (UC) (economic model); and (5) a wider systematic review of the evidence of the effectiveness of SM support, including interventions (such as pulmonary rehabilitation) in which there are significant components of SM, to identify which components are the most important in reducing exacerbations, hospital admissions/readmissions and improving quality of life (review 4). METHODS The following electronic databases were searched from inception to May 2012: MEDLINE, MEDLINE In-Process and Other Non-Indexed Citations, EMBASE, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), and Science Citation Index [Institute of Scientific Information (ISI)]. Subject-specific databases were also searched: PEDro physiotherapy evidence database, PsycINFO and the Cochrane Airways Group Register of Trials. Ongoing studies were sourced through the metaRegister of Current Controlled Trials, International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial Number database, World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform Portal and ClinicalTrials.gov. Specialist abstract and conference proceedings were sourced through ISIs Conference Proceedings Citation Index and British Librarys Electronic Table of Contents (Zetoc). Hand-searching through European Respiratory Society, the American Thoracic Society and British Thoracic Society conference proceedings from 2010 to 2012 was also undertaken, and selected websites were also examined. Title, abstracts and full texts of potentially relevant studies were scanned by two independent reviewers. Primary studies were included if ≈90% of the population had COPD, the majority were of at least moderate severity and reported on any intervention that included a SM component or package. Accepted study designs and outcomes differed between the reviews. Risk of bias for randomised controlled trials (RCTs) was assessed using the Cochrane tool. Random-effects meta-analysis was used to combine studies where appropriate. A Markov model, taking a 30-year time horizon, compared a SM intervention immediately following a hospital admission for an acute exacerbation with UC. Incremental costs and quality-adjusted life-years were calculated, with sensitivity analyses. RESULTS From 13,355 abstracts, 10 RCTs were included for review 1, one study each for reviews 2 and 3, and 174 RCTs for review 4. Available studies were heterogeneous and many were of poor quality. Meta-analysis identified no evidence of benefit of post-discharge SM support on admissions [hazard ratio (HR) 0.78, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.52 to 1.17], mortality (HR 1.07, 95% CI 0.74 to 1.54) and most other health outcomes. A modest improvement in health-related quality of life (HRQoL) was identified but this was possibly biased due to high loss to follow-up. The economic model was speculative due to uncertainty in impact on readmissions. Compared with UC, post-discharge SM support (delivered within 6 weeks of discharge) was more costly and resulted in better outcomes (£683 cost difference and 0.0831 QALY gain). Studies assessing the effect of individual components were few but only exercise significantly improved HRQoL (3-month St Georges Respiratory Questionnaire 4.87, 95% CI 3.96 to 5.79). Multicomponent interventions produced an improved HRQoL compared with UC (mean difference 6.50, 95% CI 3.62 to 9.39, at 3 months). Results were consistent with a potential reduction in admissions. Interventions with more enhanced care from health-care professionals improved HRQoL and reduced admissions at 1-year follow-up. Interventions that included supervised or unsupervised structured exercise resulted in significant and clinically important improvements in HRQoL up to 6 months. LIMITATIONS This review was based on a comprehensive search strategy that should have identified most of the relevant studies. The main limitations result from the heterogeneity of studies available and widespread problems with their design and reporting. CONCLUSIONS There was little evidence of benefit of providing SM support to patients shortly after discharge from hospital, although effects observed were consistent with possible improvement in HRQoL and reduction in hospital admissions. It was not easy to tease out the most effective components of SM support packages, although interventions containing exercise seemed the most effective. Future work should include qualitative studies to explore barriers and facilitators to SM post exacerbation and novel approaches to affect behaviour change, tailored to the individual and their circumstances. Any new trials should be properly designed and conducted, with special attention to reducing loss to follow-up. Individual participant data meta-analysis may help to identify the most effective components of SM interventions. STUDY REGISTRATION This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42011001588. FUNDING The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

PiSZ alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency (AATD): pulmonary phenotype and prognosis relative to PiZZ AATD and PiMM COPD

Introduction The PiSZ genotype results in less severe deficiency of alpha-1 antitrypsin (AAT) than PiZZ. Less is known about phenotypic and prognostic features. Methods We studied 699 PiZZ, 126 PiSZ and 316 PiMM patients. All AAT deficiency (AATD) patients were augmentation naive. PiSZ were compared with PiZZ patients for clinical phenotype at baseline including CT findings, smoke exposure, progression of lung disease and survival. Similarly, PiSZ patients diagnosed as a result of investigation for possible lung disease (lung index cases) were compared with PiMM. Multivariable analytical techniques and matching (PiSZ to PiZZ) were employed to account for demographic differences. Results Pack-years smoked and FEV1 exhibited a negative correlation in PiSZ and ZZ patients (both r=−0.43), with emphysema and COPD occurring more commonly in PiZZ patients at <20 pack-year exposure. In multivariable analyses, PiSZ patients were less likely to have emphysema (p<0.01) and had better survival than PiZZ (p=0.017), but lung function decline did not differ significantly. 42% of PiSZ patients had upper-zone-dominant emphysema on CT scan. Analyses of AAT level confirmed a critical threshold at 11 μM, particularly with regard to phenotypes classical of PiZZ AATD. Significant baseline differences suggested that PiSZ had presented earlier to health services than PiMM. Once this was accounted for, risk of emphysema did not differ between PiSZ and PiMM although survival was lower in PiMM patients (p<0.01). Conclusions PiSZ patients are less susceptible to cigarette smoke than PiZZ. The pattern of emphysema may be similar at diagnosis to usual COPD.

Circulating DBP level and prognosis in operated lung cancer: an exploration of pathophysiology

Vitamin D stimulates transcription of antiangiogenic and apoptotic factors that may suppress tumours, while vitamin D binding protein (DBP) may be a biomarker in murine lung cancer models. We sought to ascertain whether the vitamin D axis is altered in lung cancer or influences prognosis. 148 lung cancer patients, 68 other intrathoracic cancer patients and 33 noncancer controls were studied for up to 5 yrs. Circulating DBP and vitamin D levels were compared between groups and their effect on survival assessed by Cox regression analysis. Expression of DBP and vitamin D receptor (VDR) was examined in lung cancer cell lines and in normal and tumour lung tissue by Western blot and immunohistochemistry. Low serum DBP levels predicted lung cancer-specific death (p=0.04), and DBP was poorly expressed in lung cancer cells on Western blot and immunohistochemistry. Vitamin D did not predict cancer survival and VDR expression was variable in tumours. Preservation of serum DBP is a significant independent factor associated with better cancer outcome in operated lung cancer patients. Given the established role of DBP in macrophage activation and clearance of abnormal cells, further study on its involvement in lung cancer is merited.

European Respiratory Society statement: diagnosis and treatment of pulmonary disease in α1-antitrypsin deficiency

α1-antitrypsin deficiency (AATD) is the most common hereditary disorder in adults. It is associated with an increased risk of developing pulmonary emphysema and liver disease. The pulmonary emphysema in AATD is strongly linked to smoking, but even a proportion of never-smokers develop progressive lung disease. A large proportion of individuals affected remain undiagnosed and therefore without access to appropriate care and treatment. The most recent international statement on AATD was published by the American Thoracic Society and the European Respiratory Society in 2003. Since then there has been a continuous development of novel, more accurate and less expensive genetic diagnostic methods. Furthermore, new outcome parameters have been developed and validated for use in clinical trials and a new series of observational and randomised clinical trials have provided more evidence concerning the efficacy and safety of augmentation therapy, the only specific treatment available for the pulmonary disease associated with AATD. As AATD is a rare disease, it is crucial to organise national and international registries and collect information prospectively about the natural history of the disease. Management of AATD patients must be supervised by national or regional expert centres and inequalities in access to therapies across Europe should be addressed. Description of the best practice in diagnosis and treatment of pulmonary disease in alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency http://ow.ly/fD3S30fuy4H

Targeted case finding for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease versus routine practice in primary care (TargetCOPD): a cluster-randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND Many individuals with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) remain undiagnosed worldwide. Health-care organisations are implementing case-finding programmes without good evidence of which are the most effective and cost-effective approaches. We assessed the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of two alternative approaches to targeted case finding for COPD compared with routine practice. METHODS In this cluster-randomised controlled trial, participating general practices in the West Midlands, UK, were randomly assigned (1:1), via a computer-generated block randomisation sequence, to either a targeted case-finding group or a routine care group. Eligible patients were ever-smokers aged 40-79 years without a previously recorded diagnosis of COPD. Patients in the targeted case-finding group were further randomly assigned (1:1) via their household to receive either a screening questionnaire at the general practitioner (GP) consultation (opportunistic) or a screening questionnaire at the GP consultation plus a mailed questionnaire (active). Respondents reporting relevant respiratory symptoms were invited for post-bronchodilator spirometry. Patients, clinicians, and investigators were not masked to allocation, but group allocation was concealed from the researchers who performed the spirometry assessments. Primary outcomes were the percentage of the eligible population diagnosed with COPD within 1 year (defined as post-bronchodilator forced expiratory volume in 1 s [FEV1] to forced vital capacity [FVC] ratio <0·7 in patients with symptoms or a new diagnosis on their GP record) and cost per new COPD diagnosis. Multiple logistic and Poisson regression were used to estimate effect sizes. Costs were obtained from the trial. This trial is registered with ISRCTN, number ISRCTN14930255. FINDINGS From Aug 10, 2012, to June 22, 2014, 74 818 eligible patients from 54 diverse general practices were randomly assigned and completed the trial. At 1 year, 1278 (4%) cases of COPD were newly detected in 32 789 eligible patients in the targeted case-finding group compared with 337 (1%) cases in 42 029 patients in the routine care group (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 7·45 [95% CI 4·80-11·55], p<0·0001). The percentage of newly detected COPD cases was higher in the active case-finding group (822 [5%] of 15 378) than in the opportunistic case-finding group (370 [2%] of 15 387; adjusted OR 2·34 [2·06-2·66], p<0·0001; adjusted risk difference 2·9 per 100 patients [95% CI 2·3-3·6], p<0·0001). Active case finding was more cost-effective than opportunistic case finding (£333 vs £376 per case detected, respectively). INTERPRETATION In this well established primary care system, routine practice identified few new cases of COPD. An active targeted approach to case finding including mailed screening questionnaires before spirometry is a cost-effective way to identify undiagnosed patients and has the potential to improve their health. FUNDING National Institute for Health Research.

Self-management of health care behaviors for COPD: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Purpose This systematic review aimed to identify the most effective components of interventions to facilitate self-management of health care behaviors for patients with COPD. PROSPERO registration number CRD42011001588. Methods We used standard review methods with a systematic search to May 2012 for randomized controlled trials of self-management interventions reporting hospital admissions or health-related quality of life (HRQoL). Mean differences (MD), hazard ratios, and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated and pooled using random-effects meta-analyses. Effects among different subgroups of interventions were explored including single/multiple components and multicomponent interventions with/without exercise. Results One hundred and seventy-three randomized controlled trials were identified. Self-management interventions had a minimal effect on hospital admission rates. Multicomponent interventions improved HRQoL (studies with follow-up >6 months St George’s Respiratory Questionnaire (MD 2.40, 95% CI 0.75–4.04, I2 57.9). Exercise was an effective individual component (St George’s Respiratory Questionnaire at 3 months MD 4.87, 95% CI 3.96–5.79, I2 0%). Conclusion While many self-management interventions increased HRQoL, little effect was seen on hospital admissions. More trials should report admissions and follow-up participants beyond the end of the intervention.

Supported self-management for patients with COPD who have recently been discharged from hospital: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Purpose Although many hospitals promote self-management to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients post discharge from hospital, the clinical effectiveness of this is unknown. We undertook a systematic review of the evidence as part of a Health Technology Assessment review. Methods A comprehensive search strategy with no language restrictions was conducted across relevant databases from inception to May 2012. Randomized controlled trials of patients with COPD, recently discharged from hospital after an acute exacerbation and comparing a self-management intervention with control, usual care or other intervention were included. Study selection, data extraction, and risk of bias assessment were undertaken by two reviewers independently. Results Of 13,559 citations, 836 full texts were reviewed with nine randomized controlled trials finally included in quantitative syntheses. Interventions were heterogeneous. Five trials assessed highly supported multi-component interventions and four trials were less supported with fewer contacts with health care professionals and mainly home-based interventions. Total sample size was 1,466 (range 33–464 per trial) with length of follow-up 2–12 months. Trials varied in quality; poor patient follow-up and poor reporting was common. No evidence of effect in favor of self-management support was observed for all-cause mortality (pooled hazard ratio =1.07; 95% confidence interval [0.74 to 1.55]; I2=0.0%, [n=5 trials]). No clear evidence of effect on all-cause hospital admissions was observed (hazard ratio 0.88 [0.61, 1.27] I2=66.0%). Improvements in St George’s Respiratory Questionnaire score were seen in favor of self-management interventions (mean difference =3.84 [1.29 to 6.40]; I2=14.6%), although patient follow-up rates were low. Conclusion There is insufficient evidence to support self-management interventions post-discharge. There is a need for good quality primary research to identify effective approaches.