Alison F. Banwell

Ice dynamic response to two modes of surface lake drainage on the Greenland ice sheet

Supraglacial lake drainage on the Greenland ice sheet opens surface-to-bed connections, reduces basal friction, and temporarily increases ice flow velocities by up to an order of magnitude. Existing field-based observations of lake drainages and their impact on ice dynamics are limited, and focus on one specific draining mechanism. Here, we report and analyse global positioning system measurements of ice velocity and elevation made at five locations surrounding two lakes that drained by different mechanisms and produced different dynamic responses. For the lake that drained slowly (>24 h) by overtopping its basin, delivering water via a channel to a pre-existing moulin, speedup and uplift were less than half those associated with a lake that drained rapidly ( 2 h) through hydrofracturing and the creation of new moulins in the lake bottom. Our results suggest that the mode and associated rate of lake drainage govern the impact on ice dynamics.

Supraglacial lakes on the Larsen B ice shelf, Antarctica, and at Paakitsoq, West Greenland: a comparative study

Abstract Supraglacial meltwater lakes trigger ice-shelf break-up and modulate seasonal ice-sheet flow, and are thus agents by which warming is transmitted to the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets. To characterize supraglacial lake variability we perform a comparative analysis of lake geometry and depth in two distinct regions, one on the pre-collapse (2002) Larsen B ice shelf, Antarctica, and the other in the ablation zone of Paakitsoq, a land-terminating region of the Greenland ice sheet. Compared to Paakitsoq, lakes on the Larsen B ice shelf cover a greater proportion of surface area (5.3% cf. 1%), but are shallower and more uniform in area. Other aspects of lake geometry (e.g. eccentricity, degree of convexity (solidity) and orientation) are relatively similar between the two regions. We attribute the notable difference in lake density and depth between ice-shelf and grounded ice to the fact that ice shelves have flatter surfaces and less distinct drainage basins. Ice shelves also possess more stimuli to small-scale, localized surface elevation variability, due to the various structural features that yield small variations in thickness and which float at different levels by Archimedes’ principle.

Moulin density controls drainage development beneath the Greenland ice sheet

This work was funded through a UK Natural Environment Research Council Doctoral Training grant (LCAG/133), a Bowring Junior Research Fellowship (St Catharines College, Cambridge), and a Leverhulme/Newton Trust Early Career Fellowship, all awarded to A.F.B. I.J.H. was supported by a Marie Curie FP7 Career Integration Grant within the 7th European Union Framework Programme.

Modeling the response of subglacial drainage at Paakitsoq, west Greenland, to 21st century climate change

Although the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) is losing mass at an accelerating rate, much uncertainty remains about how surface runoff interacts with the subglacial drainage system and affects water pressures and ice velocities, both currently, and into the future. Here, we apply a physically based, subglacial hydrological model to the Paakitsoq region, west Greenland, and run it into the future to calculate patterns of daily subglacial water pressure fluctuations in response to climatic warming. The model is driven with moulin input hydrographs calculated by a surface routing model, forced with distributed runoff. Surface runoff and routing are simulated for a baseline year (2000), before the model is forced with future climate scenarios for the years 2025, 2050, and 2095, based on the IPCCs Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Our results show that as runoff increases throughout the 21st century, and/or as RCP scenarios become more extreme, the subglacial drainage system makes an earlier transition from a less efficient network operating at high water pressures, to a more efficient network with lower pressures. This will likely cause an overall decrease in ice velocities for marginal areas of the GrIS. However, short-term variations in runoff, and therefore subglacial pressure, can still cause localized speedups, even after the system has become more efficient. If these short-term pressure fluctuations become more pronounced as future runoff increases, the associated late-season speedups may help to compensate for the drop in overall summer velocities, associated with earlier transitioning from a high to a low pressure system.

Ice-shelf fracture due to viscoelastic-flexure stress induced by fill/drain cycles of supraglacial lakes

Abstract Using a previously derived treatment of viscoelastic flexure of floating ice shelves, we simulated multiple years of evolution of a single, axisymmetric supraglacial lake when it is subjected to annual fill/drain cycles. Our viscoelastic treatment follows the assumptions of the well-known thin-beam and thin-plate analysis but, crucially, also covers power-law creep rheology. As the ice-shelf surface does not completely return to its un-flexed position after a 1-year fill/drain cycle, the lake basin deepens with each successive cycle. This deepening process is significantly amplified when lake-bottom ablation is taken into account. We evaluate the timescale over which a typical lake reaches a sufficient depth such that ice-shelf fracture can occur well beyond the lake itself in response to lake filling/drainage. We show that, although this is unlikely during one fill/drain cycle, fracture is possible after multiple years assuming surface meltwater availability is unlimited. This extended zone of potential fracture implies that flexural stresses in response to a single lake filling/drainage event can cause neighbouring lakes to drain, which, in turn, can cause lakes farther afield to drain. Such self-stimulating behaviour may have accounted for the sudden, widespread appearance of a fracture system that drove the Larsen B Ice Shelf to break-up in 2002.

Annual to Daily Ice Velocity and Water Pressure Variations on Ka Roimata o Hine Hukatere (Franz Josef Glacier), New Zealand

Abstract Ka Roimata o Hine Hukatere (Franz Josef Glacier) is a fast-flowing maritime glacier and its climatological and hydrological drivers are different from those of many previously studied alpine glaciers. The glacier tongue has recently advanced as well as retreated, remains largely snow free, has significant volumes of melt and rainwater inputs throughout the year, and experiences small radiation and air temperature fluctuations over diurnal to seasonal time scales. We discuss measurements of surface velocity made between 2000 and 2012 at annual, seasonal, weekly, and daily time scales together with measurements of glacier geometry change, and calculations of surface water inputs and subglacial water pressure variations derived from a distributed surface mass balance model and a one-dimensional conduit hydrology model, respectively. Annual velocity variations are linked to changes in glacier geometry and advance/retreat cycles with accelerations during thickening and advance and decelerations during thinning and retreat. At seasonal, weekly and daily time scales, velocities are correlated with water input variations and with rates of water pressure fluctuation rather than absolute magnitudes of water pressure.

Seasonal evolution of supraglacial lakes on a floating ice tongue, Petermann Glacier, Greenland

ABSTRACT Supraglacial lakes are known to trigger Antarctic ice-shelf instability and break-up. However, to date, no study has focused on lakes on Greenlands floating termini. Here, we apply lake boundary/area and depth algorithms to Landsat 8 imagery to analyse the inter- and intraseasonal evolution of supraglacial lakes across Petermann Glaciers (81°N) floating tongue from 2014 to 2016, while also comparing these lakes to those on the grounded ice. Lakes start to fill in June and quickly peak in total number, volume and area in late June/early July in response to increases in air temperatures. However, through July and August, total lake number, volume and area all decline, despite sustained high temperatures. These observations may be explained by the transportation of meltwater into the ocean by a river, and by lake drainage events on the floating tongue. Further, as mean lake depth remains relatively constant during this time, we suggest that a large proportion of the lakes that drain, do so completely, likely by rapid hydrofracture. The mean areas of lakes on the tongue are only ~20% of those on the grounded ice and exhibit lower variability in maximum and mean depth, differences likely attributable to the contrasting formation processes of lakes in each environment.

Glaciology: Ice-shelf stability questioned

&NA; Surface lakes and streams are forming on Antarcticas ice shelves, making them susceptible to instability and possible collapse. But rivers could mitigate this effect by efficiently exporting meltwater to the ocean. See Letters p.344 & p.349

Calving and rifting on the McMurdo Ice Shelf, Antarctica

On 2 March 2016, several small en echelon tabular icebergs calved from the seaward front of the McMurdo Ice Shelf, and a previously inactive rift widened and propagated by ~3 km, ~25% of its previous length, setting the stage for the future calving of a ~14 km2 iceberg. Within 24 h of these events, all remaining land-fast sea ice that had been stabilizing the ice shelf broke-up. The events were witnessed by time-lapse cameras at nearby Scott Base, and put into context using nearby seismic and automatic weather station data, satellite imagery and subsequent ground observation. Although the exact trigger of calving and rifting cannot be identified definitively, seismic records reveal superimposed sets of both long-period (>10 s) sea swell propagating into McMurdo Sound from storm sources beyond Antarctica, and high-energy, locally-sourced, short-period (<10 s) sea swell, in the 4 days before the fast ice break-up and associated ice-shelf calving and rifting. This suggests that sea swell should be studied further as a proximal cause of ice-shelf calving and rifting; if proven, it suggests that ice-shelf stability is tele-connected with far-field storm conditions at lower latitudes, adding a global dimension to the physics of ice-shelf break-up.

Dual-satellite (Sentinel-2 and Landsat 8) remote sensing of supraglacial lakes in Greenland

Remote sensing is commonly used to monitor supraglacial lakes on the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS); however, most satellite records must trade off higher spatial resolution for higher temporal resolution (e.g. MODIS) or vice versa (e.g. Landsat). Here, we overcome this issue by developing and applying a dual-sensor method that can monitor changes to lake areas and volumes at high spatial resolution (10–30 m) with a frequent revisit time (∼ 3 days). We achieve this by mosaicking imagery from the Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) with imagery from the recently launched Sentinel-2 Multispectral Instrument (MSI) for a ∼ 12 000 km2 area of West Greenland in the 2016 melt season. First, we validate a physically based method for calculating lake depths with Sentinel-2 by comparing measurements against those derived from the available contemporaneous Landsat 8 imagery; we find close correspondence between the two sets of values (R2 = 0.841; RMSE= 0.555 m). This provides us with the methodological basis for automatically calculating lake areas, depths, and volumes from all available Landsat 8 and Sentinel-2 images. These automatic methods are incorporated into an algorithm for Fully Automated Supraglacial lake Tracking at Enhanced Resolution (FASTER). The FASTER algorithm produces time series showing lake evolution during the 2016 melt season, including automated rapid (≤ 4 day) lake-drainage identification. With the dual Sentinel-2–Landsat 8 record, we identify 184 rapidly draining lakes, many more than identified with either imagery collection alone (93 with Sentinel-2; 66 with Landsat 8), due to their inferior temporal resolution, or would be possible with MODIS, due to its omission of small lakes< 0.125 km2. Finally, we estimate the water volumes drained into the GrIS during rapid-lake-drainage events and, by analysing downscaled regional climate-model (RACMO2.3p2) run-off data, the water quantity that enters the GrIS via the moulins opened by such events. We find that during the lake-drainage events alone, the water drained by small lakes (< 0.125 km2) is only 5.1 % of the total water volume drained by all lakes. However, considering the total water volume entering the GrIS after lake drainage, the moulins opened by small lakes deliver 61.5 % of the total water volume delivered via the moulins opened by large and small lakes; this is because there are more small lakes, allowing more moulins to open, and because small lakes are found at lower elevations than large lakes, where run-off is higher. These findings suggest that small lakes should be included in future remote-sensing and modelling work.