Alison Gemmill

Global causes of maternal death: a WHO systematic analysis

BACKGROUND Data for the causes of maternal deaths are needed to inform policies to improve maternal health. We developed and analysed global, regional, and subregional estimates of the causes of maternal death during 2003-09, with a novel method, updating the previous WHO systematic review. METHODS We searched specialised and general bibliographic databases for articles published between between Jan 1, 2003, and Dec 31, 2012, for research data, with no language restrictions, and the WHO mortality database for vital registration data. On the basis of prespecified inclusion criteria, we analysed causes of maternal death from datasets. We aggregated country level estimates to report estimates of causes of death by Millennium Development Goal regions and worldwide, for main and subcauses of death categories with a Bayesian hierarchical model. FINDINGS We identified 23 eligible studies (published 2003-12). We included 417 datasets from 115 countries comprising 60 799 deaths in the analysis. About 73% (1 771 000 of 2 443 000) of all maternal deaths between 2003 and 2009 were due to direct obstetric causes and deaths due to indirect causes accounted for 27·5% (672 000, 95% UI 19·7-37·5) of all deaths. Haemorrhage accounted for 27·1% (661 000, 19·9-36·2), hypertensive disorders 14·0% (343 000, 11·1-17·4), and sepsis 10·7% (261 000, 5·9-18·6) of maternal deaths. The rest of deaths were due to abortion (7·9% [193 000], 4·7-13·2), embolism (3·2% [78 000], 1·8-5·5), and all other direct causes of death (9·6% [235 000], 6·5-14·3). Regional estimates varied substantially. INTERPRETATION Between 2003 and 2009, haemorrhage, hypertensive disorders, and sepsis were responsible for more than half of maternal deaths worldwide. More than a quarter of deaths were attributable to indirect causes. These analyses should inform the prioritisation of health policies, programmes, and funding to reduce maternal deaths at regional and global levels. Further efforts are needed to improve the availability and quality of data related to maternal mortality.

Global, regional, and national levels and trends in maternal mortality between 1990 and 2015, with scenario-based projections to 2030: a systematic analysis by the UN Maternal Mortality Estimation Inter-Agency Group

Summary Background Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 5 calls for a reduction of 75% in the maternal mortality ratio (MMR) between 1990 and 2015. We estimated levels and trends in maternal mortality for 183 countries to assess progress made. Based on MMR estimates for 2015, we constructed scenario-based projections to highlight the accelerations needed to accomplish the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) global target of less than 70 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births globally by 2030. Methods We updated the open access UN Maternal Mortality Estimation Inter-agency Group (MMEIG) database. Based upon nationally-representative data for 171 countries, we generated estimates of maternal mortality and related indicators with uncertainty intervals using a Bayesian model, which extends and refines the previous UN MMEIG estimation approach. The model combines the rate of change implied by a multilevel regression model with a time series model to capture data-driven changes in country-specific MMRs, and includes a data model to adjust for systematic and random errors associated with different data sources. Results The global MMR declined from 385 deaths per 100,000 live births (80% uncertainty interval ranges from 359 to 427) in 1990 to 216 (207 to 249) in 2015, corresponding to a relative decline of 43.9% (34.0 to 48.7) during the 25-year period, with 303,000 (291,000 to 349,000) maternal deaths globally in 2015. Regional progress in reducing the MMR since 1990 ranged from an annual rate of reduction of 1.8% (0 to 3.1) in the Caribbean to 5.0% (4.0 to 6.0) for Eastern Asia. Regional MMRs for 2015 range from 12 (11 to 14) for developed regions to 546 (511 to 652) for sub-Saharan Africa. Accelerated progress will be needed to achieve the SDG goal; countries will need to reduce their MMRs at an annual rate of reduction of at least 7.5%. Interpretation Despite global progress in reducing maternal mortality, immediate action is required to begin making progress towards the ambitious SDG 2030 target, and ultimately eliminating preventable maternal mortality. While the rates of reduction that are required to achieve country-specific SDG targets are ambitious for the great majority of high mortality countries, the experience and rates of change between 2000 and 2010 in selected countries–those with concerted efforts to reduce the MMR- provide inspiration as well as guidance on how to accomplish the acceleration necessary to substantially reduce preventable maternal deaths. Funding Funding from grant R-155-000-146-112 from the National University of Singapore supported the research by LA and SZ. AG is the recipient of a National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, grant # T32-HD007275. Funding also provided by USAID and HRP (the UNDP/UNFPA/UNICEF/WHO/World Bank Special Programme of Research, Development and Research Training in Human Reproduction).

Short interpregnancy intervals in the United States.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the prevalence and correlates of short interpregnancy intervals in the United States. METHODS: We analyzed pregnancy data from a nationally representative sample of 12,279 women from the 2006–2010 National Survey of Family Growth. We limited our sample to second and higher-order births within 5 years of the interview. Interpregnancy intervals were calculated as the interval between the delivery date of the preceding live birth and the conception date of the index pregnancy, with short interpregnancy intervals defined as intervals less than 18 months. We used simple and multivariate logistic regression analyses to examine associations between short interpregnancy intervals and maternal demographic and childbearing characteristics, including pregnancy intention. RESULTS: Among the 2,253 pregnancies in our sample, one third (35%) were conceived within 18 months of a previous birth. After adjusting for sociodemographic and childbearing characteristics, women were significantly more likely to have a short interpregnancy interval if they were aged 15–19 years or married at the time of conception of the index pregnancy, initiated childbearing after age 30 years, or reported the pregnancy as unintended. Short interpregnancy intervals were more likely to be intended among more advantaged women (married, non-Hispanic white, college-educated, or non-Medicaid delivery). We estimate that preventing unintended pregnancies would reduce the proportion of short interpregnancy intervals from 35% to 23%. CONCLUSION: Providing counseling about the potential negative consequences of short interpregnancy intervals and improving womens contraceptive use to reduce rates of unintended pregnancy likely would reduce the proportion of short interpregnancy interval pregnancies in the United States. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: II

Lifespan adversity and later adulthood telomere length in the nationally representative US Health and Retirement Study

Significance The gradual aging of the immune system is partly marked by shortened telomeres, the DNA–protein caps at the ends of chromosomes that protect genes from degradation. This study undertakes a lifespan approach to stress and leukocyte telomere length in a nationally representative sample of US residents. By using data from 16 y of the Health and Retirement Study, childhood and adulthood life stressors were examined for their individual and combined associations with increased odds of having short telomeres. Accumulated adverse experiences in childhood significantly predicted an increased likelihood of having short telomeres later in life, suggesting a potential pathway through which childhood experiences have been previously shown to predict adulthood morbidity and mortality. Stress over the lifespan is thought to promote accelerated aging and early disease. Telomere length is a marker of cell aging that appears to be one mediator of this relationship. Telomere length is associated with early adversity and with chronic stressors in adulthood in many studies. Although cumulative lifespan adversity should have bigger impacts than single events, it is also possible that adversity in childhood has larger effects on later life health than adult stressors, as suggested by models of biological embedding in early life. No studies have examined the individual vs. cumulative effects of childhood and adulthood adversities on adult telomere length. Here, we examined the relationship between cumulative childhood and adulthood adversity, adding up a range of severe financial, traumatic, and social exposures, as well as comparing them to each other, in relation to salivary telomere length. We examined 4,598 men and women from the US Health and Retirement Study. Single adversities tended to have nonsignificant relations with telomere length. In adjusted models, lifetime cumulative adversity predicted 6% greater odds of shorter telomere length. This result was mainly due to childhood adversity. In adjusted models for cumulative childhood adversity, the occurrence of each additional childhood event predicted 11% increased odds of having short telomeres. This result appeared mainly because of social/traumatic exposures rather than financial exposures. This study suggests that the shadow of childhood adversity may reach far into later adulthood in part through cellular aging.

Residential proximity to methyl bromide use and birth outcomes in an agricultural population in California.

Background: Methyl bromide, a fungicide often used in strawberry cultivation, is of concern for residents who live near agricultural applications because of its toxicity and potential for drift. Little is known about the effects of methyl bromide exposure during pregnancy. Objective: We investigated the relationship between residential proximity to methyl bromide use and birth outcomes. Methods: Participants were from the CHAMACOS (Center for the Health Assessment of Mothers and Children of Salinas) study (n = 442), a longitudinal cohort study examining the health effects of environmental exposures on pregnant women and their children in an agricultural community in northern California. Using data from the California Pesticide Use Reporting system, we employed a geographic information system to estimate the amount of methyl bromide applied within 5 km of a woman’s residence during pregnancy. Multiple linear regression models were used to estimate associations between trimester-specific proximity to use and birth weight, length, head circumference, and gestational age. Results: High methyl bromide use (vs. no use) within 5 km of the home during the second trimester was negatively associated with birth weight (β = –113.1 g; CI: –218.1, –8.1), birth length (β = –0.85 cm; CI: –1.44, –0.27), and head circumference (β = –0.33 cm; CI: –0.67, 0.01). These outcomes were also associated with moderate methyl bromide use during the second trimester. Negative associations with fetal growth parameters were stronger when larger (5 km and 8 km) versus smaller (1 km and 3 km) buffer zones were used to estimate exposure. Conclusions: Residential proximity to methyl bromide use during the second trimester was associated with markers of restricted fetal growth in our study.

Adolescent experience predicts longevity: evidence from historical epidemiology

Human development reportedly includes critical and sensitive periods during which environmental stressors can affect traits that persist throughout life. Controversy remains over which of these periods provides an opportunity for such stressors to affect health and longevity. The elaboration of reproductive biology and its behavioral sequelae during adolescence suggests such a sensitive period, particularly among males. We test the hypothesis that life expectancy at age 20 among males exposed to life-threatening stressors during early adolescence will fall below that among other males. We apply time-series methods to cohort mortality data in France between 1816 and 1919, England and Wales between 1841 and 1919, and Sweden between 1861 and 1919. Our results indicate an inverse association between cohort death rates at ages 10-14 and cohort life expectancy at age 20. Our findings imply that better-informed and more strategic management of the stressors encountered by early adolescents may improve population health.

Listening to Communities: Mixed-Method Study of the Engagement of Disadvantaged Mothers and Pregnant Women With Digital Health Technologies

Background US health care providers are increasingly demanding patient engagement with digital health technologies to enroll in care, access personal health information, communicate with providers, and monitor their own health. Such engagement may be difficult for disadvantaged populations who may have limited health literacy, time constraints, or competing priorities. Objective We aimed to understand the extent of adoption and use of digital health tools and to identify key perceived psychological motivators of technology use among disadvantaged first-time pregnant women and mothers of young children. Methods We recruited women from health organizations serving low-income communities in the Midwest and on the East and West coasts. A total of 92 women participated in 14 focus groups. During each session, we administered worksheets that measured 3 utilization outcomes: the number of recent Web-based health-seeking activities, current use of digital health-management practices (eg, accessing personal health information, communicating with providers, and scheduling appointments), and potential adoption of digital health-management tools among low users or nonusers. Responses to the worksheets and to a pre-focus group survey on demographics, technology access, and motivators of use were examined to create user profiles. Separate regression models identified the motivators (eHealth literacy, internal health orientation, and trust in digital information) associated with these outcomes. Qualitative data were incorporated to illustrate the worksheet responses. Results Whereas 97% of the participants reported that they had searched for health information on the Internet in the past year, 42% did not engage in digital health-management practices. Among the low users and nonusers, 49% expressed interest in future adoption of digital health tools. Web-based health information-seeking activities were associated with digital health-management practices (P<.001). When controlling for covariates, eHealth literacy was positively correlated with the number of Web-based health-seeking activities (beta=.03, 95% CI 0.00-0.07). However, an internal health orientation was a much stronger correlate of digital health-management practices (beta=.13, 95% CI 0.02-0.24), whereas trust in digital information increased the odds of potential adoption (vs no adoption) in adjusted models (OR 5.21, 95% CI 0.84-32.53). Demographic characteristics were not important drivers of digital health use and few differences distinguished use among mothers and pregnant women. Conclusions Seeking health information on the Internet may be an important gateway toward engaging in digital health-management practices. Notably, different consumer motivators influence digital health tool use. The relative contributions of each must be explored to design tools and interventions that enhance competencies for the management of self and child health among disadvantaged mothers and pregnant women. Unless we address disparities in digital health tool use, benefits from their use will accrue predominantly to individuals with the resources and skills to use technology effectively.

Do macroeconomic contractions induce or ‘harvest’ suicides? A test of competing hypotheses

Background Researchers often invoke a mortality displacement or ‘harvesting’ mechanism to explain mortality patterns, such that those with underlying health vulnerabilities die sooner than expected in response to environmental phenomena, such as heat waves, cold spells and air pollution. It is unclear if this displacement mechanism might also explain observed increases in suicide following economic contraction, or if suicides are induced in persons otherwise unlikely to engage in self-destructive behaviour. Here, we test two competing hypotheses explaining an observed increase in suicides following unemployment—induction or displacement. Methods We apply time series methods to monthly suicide and unemployment data from Sweden for the years 2000–2011. Tests are conducted separately for working age (20–64 years old) men and women as well as older (aged 65 years and older) men and women. Results Displacement appeared among older men and women; an unexpected rise in unemployment predicted an increase in suicides 6 months later, followed by a significant decrease 8 months later. Induction appeared among working age men, but not among working age women; an unexpected rise in unemployment predicted an increase in suicides 4–6 months later. Conclusions Displacement and induction both appear to have operated following unexpected labour market contractions in Sweden, though with different population segments.

Reproductive suppression follows threats to child survival

Natural selection presumably conserved mechanisms that allow females to block or terminate gestation when environmental circumstances threaten the survival of offspring. One example of this adaptive reproductive suppression, the Bruce effect, has been identified in several species, both in the laboratory and in the wild. Although descriptive epidemiology reports low fertility among women experiencing stressful circumstances, attempts to detect a Bruce effect in humans have been rare and limited. We contribute to this limited work by examining the relationship between the odds of child death and the sex ratio at birth in Sweden for the years 1751–1840. We find evidence of a generalized Bruce effect in humans in that unexpected changes in child mortality predict opposite unexpected changes in the secondary sex ratio in the following year, even after adjusting for period life expectancy. Our analysis broadens the scope of the Bruce effect literature to include humans, suggesting that women, through noncognitive decisional biology, adjust reproductive strategies and investments in response to changing environmental conditions.

Is human fecundity changing? A discussion of research and data gaps precluding us from having an answer

Fecundity, the biologic capacity to reproduce, is essential for the health of individuals and is, therefore, fundamental for understanding human health at the population level. Given the absence of a population (bio)marker, fecundity is assessed indirectly by various individual-based (e.g. semen quality, ovulation) or couple-based (e.g. time-to-pregnancy) endpoints. Population monitoring of fecundity is challenging, and often defaults to relying on rates of births (fertility) or adverse outcomes such as genitourinary malformations and reproductive site cancers. In light of reported declines in semen quality and fertility rates in some global regions among other changes, the question as to whether human fecundity is changing needs investigation. We review existing data and novel methodological approaches aimed at answering this question from a transdisciplinary perspective. The existing literature is insufficient for answering this question; we provide an overview of currently available resources and novel methods suitable for delineating temporal patterns in human fecundity in future research.