Alison J. Greig

A rigorous inter-comparison of ground-level ozone predictions

Novel statistical approaches to prediction have recently been shown to perform well in several scientific fields but have not, until now, been comprehensively evaluated for predicting air pollution. In this paper we report on a model inter-comparison exercise in which 15 different statistical techniques for ozone forecasting were applied to ten data sets representing different meteorological and emission conditions throughout Europe. We also attempt to compare the performance of the statistical techniques with a deterministic chemical trajectory model. Likewise, our exercise includes comparisons of sites, performance indices, forecasting horizons, etc. The comparative evaluation of forecasting performance (benchmarking) produced 1340 yearly time series of daily predictions and the results are described in terms of predefined performance indices. Through analysing associations between the performance indices, we found that the success index is of outstanding significance. For models that are excellent in predicting threshold exceedances and have a high success index, we also observe high performance in the overall goodness of fit. The 8-h average ozone concentration forecast accuracy was found to be superior to the 1-h mean ozone concentration forecast, which makes the former very significant for operational forecasting. The best forecasts were achieved for sites located in rural and suburban areas in Central Europe unaffected by extreme emissions (e.g. from industries). Our results demonstrate that a particular technique is often excellent in some respects but poor in others. For most situations, we recommend neural network and generalised additive models as the best compromise, as these can handle nonlinear associations and can be easily adapted to site specific conditions. In contrast, nonlinear modelling of the dynamical development of univariate ozone time-series was not profitable.

Air pollution episodes: Modelling tools for improved smog management (APPETISE)

Most ambient air quality models are deterministic models or rely upon simple regression based statistics. Their success, however, is limited either by their failure to capture the non-linear behaviour of air pollutants, or the incomplete understanding of the physical and chemical processes involved. The APPETISE project aims to develop and test the suitability of novel non-linear statistical methods to improve the ability to accurately forecast variations in air quality. It also aims to develop methods for handling missing data, which will have generic applications for other real data situations. The work is being carried out over a period of 2 years by a consortium from 9 institutions from 5 different European countries and is funded under the European Union Fifth Framework Programme. The project concentrates on 4 key pollutants; nitrogen oxides, particulates, ground level ozone and sulphur dioxide. Since it is likely that different methods and models will work best under different situations an ensemble approach will be utilised to improve the confidence held in any given prediction. The project will work towards the construction of a prototype air quality prediction and warning system the performance of which will be tested against existing systems.

Industrial pollution, spatial stigma and economic decline: the case of Asopos river basin through the lens of local small business owners

This paper explores the notion of environmentally induced spatial stigma through an analysis of data from interviews across public attitudes to pollution within the Asopos river basin in central Greece. The area has a 40 year plus history of legal and illicit industrial waste disposal and public debate on the associated environmental degradation. The study focuses on the perceptions and beliefs of a sector of the community likely to be directly and negatively affected by stigma, that is small business owners in the tourism and hospitality sector. The qualitative analysis explores awareness and viewpoints on environmental degradation and water quality within the local context, implications for the local economy and the individuals own enterprise, views on industrial environmental management as well as corporate responsibility and future prospects for the environmental problems of Asopos. Findings reveal a noticeable variation in views on industrial pollution and ecosystem deterioration among the respondents, but overall a strong environmentally induced stigmatization of the area. They also uncover an information asymmetry and lack of credible commitment by government bodies and industry members in disclosing accurate information, a situation likely to increase speculation and uncertainty within the community. The paper concludes by addressing implications of the findings to policy-making and managerial considerations, along with future research perspectives which aim to increase considerations of sustainability aspects for local development.

Embedding Education for Sustainable Development (ESD) Within the Curriculum of UK Higher Educational Institutions (HEIs): Strategic Priorities

Higher Education is recognised as having a significant role to play in achieving sustainable development, through its teaching and research, its business operations and community engagement and through the sustainability of its buildings (HEFCE in Sustainable Development in Higher Education 2014). The UK Government, e.g. through its funding councils and the United Nations e.g. through the Decade of Education for Sustainable Development (DESD), have provided considerable encouragement and support for Higher Education Institutions to embrace this agenda. This paper provides a critical commentary on the strategic importance that higher education institutions themselves have placed on sustainability in recent years. It builds on Sterling and Scott’s (Environmental Education Research 14(4):386–398, 2008) paper which noted that although good progress had been made in promoting sustainability within campus management activities and to some extent research, very little had been done to re-orientate HEIs curriculum. They suggest that the curriculum dimension suffered from a lack of incentive to engage, inadequate leadership from UK HEIs main funding body (HEFCE) and the autonomous nature of teaching and learning. Most importantly however, their review identified that sustainability principles had largely not permeated institutions visions, ethos and practice, and suggest that without this, real transformation of all aspects of HEIs operations and practices may not be possible. This study investigates whether this vital shift is now taking place. The research involved a qualitative document analysis of 128 UK HEIs strategic or corporate plans to explore which and how aspects of sustainability are explicitly mentioned and to what extent ESD is being prioritised across institutions. Findings show that the main focus across HEIs still remains campus greening and the embedding of sustainability within the curriculum is often still not included as an explicit part of HEI’s strategic priorities. In short, the potential for higher education to contribute to sustainable development is not yet being fully realised. The study also identified what appears to be several existing missed opportunities to strategically advance sustainability in HEIs.

Localism and the environment: A critical review of UK Government localism strategy 2010–2015:

From 2010 to 2015, the UK coalition government sought to reduce the influence of central government and follow a strategy of localism. Devolution, bringing people closer to democratic process and strengthening communities, became a key point of emphasis. The belief was that localism and devolution would empower socially, help instigate economic innovation and lead to the establishment of greener, more environmentally conscious behaviour. The findings of this paper challenge this rationale. Through an analysis of community energy policy, this paper highlights how the strategy of localism that emerged during the coalition government’s tenure, did not allow pro-environmental schemes, such as community energy, to flourish. The significant scaling back of state funding and structure, which became a feature of the coalition government’s approach to localism, restricts the ability and desire for communities to positively affect their surroundings. It is the recommendation of this paper that future governments should look to emerging ‘eco-localism’ literature, and establish a model of localism that moves away from existing neoliberal perspectives of governance.

Making Sustainability Part of Every Student’s Curriculum

Anglia Ruskin University (ARU) has made a corporate commitment to ensure that “sustainability will be a feature of all our students’ experience”. In order to address this goal ARU has sought to ensure that sustainability is embedded within every taught course across each of our four faculties (Science and Technology, Arts, Law and Social Sciences, Health Social Care and Education and the Lord Ashcroft International Business School). This paper provides a critical review of the individual, discipline specific and institutional challenges encountered and the how these have been addressed. Special mention is made of the significance of strategic level interventions and the support provided by the Higher Education Academy’s Green Academy programme in levering such interventions. The crucial importance of developing a definition of sustainability which is meaningful, non-threatening and encourages engagement, both from academic staff and staff supporting academic activities will be stressed. This paper will be useful to anyone involved in embedding sustainability into HE curricula.

Student Attitudes to Sustainability and Employability Skills: Expectations from the University Curriculum

Students in higher education in the UK may focus on gaining good academic results but neglect skills that underpin successful job applications. This study explored students’ understanding of the importance of these skills, and where they felt they were most likely to acquire them. Two data sets are presented. The first comes from an internal survey of all students covering a wide range of satisfaction and experience issues, and in one year included specific questions on employability and sustainability. Data come from a large sample of students (>3,000), but provide little context relating attitudes to experience within and outside the curriculum. To supplement these data, a separate survey was conducted that explored attitudes in more detail. Students (n = 279) at various points in their university career were asked to rate the importance of eleven skills linked to employability and sustainability. Responses indicated that the importance attached to these skills increased consistently as they moved through their course and into employment. Despite an emphasis on delivery of these skills within the university curriculum, students typically felt that they acquired such skills almost exclusively outside the curriculum. For instance, they were almost four times as likely to agree that they developed an ‘Understanding of how to act as a responsible citizen’ outside the curriculum than within their course. Only skills with a more obvious academic flavour, such as the ‘Ability to assess and critique information sources’, were seen to derive from their course. These results demonstrate a gap between the perceived skills delivery by the institution and students perceptions of where they acquired them, and imply the need for improvements in skills delivery.

Monitoring airborne particles as mass and number concentrations: implications for air quality management and health

Airborne particulate matter is unique in that it does not have a standard or constant chemical formula or physical structure. This makes classification and measurement problematic. Many different measurement techniques have been devised to quantify airborne particles but few are comparable and it is proving very difficult to measure particles accurately in a way that reflects their potential harm to human health. Such measurements are a pre‐requisite for effective air quality management. This paper reviews the main methods used to quantify airborne particulates in the ambient urban atmosphere. Its aim is to demonstrate the importance of the measurement methods to our interpretation of health risk. Through the use of a case study the paper illustrates how, by using two different types of measurement, very different patterns of health risk are implied.

Differentiating between polluted sites and polluted days in Cambridge, England

This paper addresses the importance, to air quality managers, of using air quality data at appropriate spatial and temporal scales in the assessment of urban pollution levels. Focusing on Cambridge as a case study it illustrates the extent to which pollution ‘hotspots’ are highly localised, with pollutant concentrations falling away rapidly from the emission source. It also examines how, on any day, pollution concentrations rise and fall concurrently at a number of sites indicating city‐wide and regional patterns of pollution. This apparent conundrum is explained by examining the importance of weather conditions and emission levels in determining the number and severity of polluted days and the importance of site characteristics and emission levels in determining the location and severity of polluted sites. This paper recommends that monitoring data are very carefully evaluated and interpreted, in addition to being routinely assessed for ‘accuracy’, before being used in any air quality assessment.