Alistair W. R. Seddon

Sensitivity of global terrestrial ecosystems to climate variability

The identification of properties that contribute to the persistence and resilience of ecosystems despite climate change constitutes a research priority of global relevance. Here we present a novel, empirical approach to assess the relative sensitivity of ecosystems to climate variability, one property of resilience that builds on theoretical modelling work recognizing that systems closer to critical thresholds respond more sensitively to external perturbations. We develop a new metric, the vegetation sensitivity index, that identifies areas sensitive to climate variability over the past 14 years. The metric uses time series data derived from the moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) enhanced vegetation index, and three climatic variables that drive vegetation productivity (air temperature, water availability and cloud cover). Underlying the analysis is an autoregressive modelling approach used to identify climate drivers of vegetation productivity on monthly timescales, in addition to regions with memory effects and reduced response rates to external forcing. We find ecologically sensitive regions with amplified responses to climate variability in the Arctic tundra, parts of the boreal forest belt, the tropical rainforest, alpine regions worldwide, steppe and prairie regions of central Asia and North and South America, the Caatinga deciduous forest in eastern South America, and eastern areas of Australia. Our study provides a quantitative methodology for assessing the relative response rate of ecosystems—be they natural or with a strong anthropogenic signature—to environmental variability, which is the first step towards addressing why some regions appear to be more sensitive than others, and what impact this has on the resilience of ecosystem service provision and human well-being.

Looking forward through the past : identification of 50 priority research questions in palaeoecology

Summary 1. Priority question exercises are becoming an increasingly common tool to frame future agendas in conservation and ecological science. They are an effective way to identify research foci that advance the field and that also have high policy and conservation relevance. 2. To date there has been no coherent synthesis of key questions and priority research areas for palaeoecology, which combines biological, geochemical and molecular techniques in order to reconstruct past ecological and environmental systems on timescales from decades to millions of years. 3. We adapted a well-established methodology to identify 50 priority research questions in palaeoecology. Using a set of criteria designed to identify realistic and achievable research goals, we selected questions from a pool submitted by the international palaeoecology research community and relevant policy practitioners. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. Accepted Article 4. The integration of online participation, both before and during the workshop, increased international engagement in question selection. 5. The questions selected are structured around six themes: human–environment interactions in the Anthropocene; biodiversity, conservation, and novel ecosystems; biodiversity over long timescales; ecosystem processes and biogeochemical cycling; comparing, combining and synthesizing information from multiple records; and new developments in palaeoecology. 6. Future opportunities in palaeoecology are related to improved incorporation of uncertainty into reconstructions, an enhanced understanding of ecological and evolutionary dynamics and processes, and the continued application of long-term data for better-informed landscape management. 7. Synthesis Palaeoecology is a vibrant and thriving discipline and these 50 priority questions highlight its potential for addressing both pure (e.g. ecological and evolutionary, methodological) and applied (e.g. environmental and conservation) issues related to ecological science and global change.

A quantitative framework for analysis of regime shifts in a Galápagos coastal lagoon

Regime shifts are often used to describe sharp changes between two or more ecological states, each characterized by their own dynamics, stochastic fluctuations, or cycles. Ecological theory indicates they can occur either as a result of an abrupt environmental forcing (extrinsic regime shift), or be indicative of complex responses to local-scale dynamics and thresholds (intrinsic regime shift). One important area of ecological research is to develop quantitative tools to analyze regime shifts, but there are few studies that have applied these methods to the long-term ecological record. In this study, we introduce a framework to investigate regime shifts in diatom assemblages and mangrove ecosystem dynamics in a coastal lagoon from the Galapagos Islands over the past 2600 years. The framework integrates a set of established statistical methodologies for investigating regime shift dynamics in long-term ecological records. We use these methods to (1) identify the presence of regime shifts; (2) test for a ser...

Ecosystem Resilience and Threshold Response in the Galápagos Coastal Zone

Background The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides a conservative estimate on rates of sea-level rise of 3.8 mm yr−1 at the end of the 21st century, which may have a detrimental effect on ecologically important mangrove ecosystems. Understanding factors influencing the long-term resilience of these communities is critical but poorly understood. We investigate ecological resilience in a coastal mangrove community from the Galápagos Islands over the last 2700 years using three research questions: What are the ‘fast and slow’ processes operating in the coastal zone? Is there evidence for a threshold response? How can the past inform us about the resilience of the modern system? Methodology/Principal Findings Palaeoecological methods (AMS radiocarbon dating, stable carbon isotopes (δ13C)) were used to reconstruct sedimentation rates and ecological change over the past 2,700 years at Diablas lagoon, Isabela, Galápagos. Bulk geochemical analysis was also used to determine local environmental changes, and salinity was reconstructed using a diatom transfer function. Changes in relative sea level (RSL) were estimated using a glacio-isostatic adjustment model. Non-linear behaviour was observed in the Diablas mangrove ecosystem as it responded to increased salinities following exposure to tidal inundations. A negative feedback was observed which enabled the mangrove canopy to accrete vertically, but disturbances may have opened up the canopy and contributed to an erosion of resilience over time. A combination of drier climatic conditions and a slight fall in RSL then resulted in a threshold response, from a mangrove community to a microbial mat. Conclusions/Significance Palaeoecological records can provide important information on the nature of non-linear behaviour by identifying thresholds within ecological systems, and in outlining responses to ‘fast’ and ‘slow’ environmental change between alternative stable states. This study highlights the need to incorporate a long-term ecological perspective when designing strategies for maximizing coastal resilience.

Climate and abrupt vegetation change in Northern Europe since the last deglaciation

A long-standing question in palaeoecology has been to determine the importance of climate driving vegetation change since the last deglaciation. Here, we investigate the local-to-regional dynamics of vegetation change during the Lateglacial and the Holocene in Northern Europe. We extracted sites from the European Pollen Database and used the squared-chord distance (SCD) dissimilarity metric to identify time periods of high pollen assemblage turnover representing periods of abrupt vegetation change. In addition, a set of generalized additive mixed models were applied to investigate the underlying dynamics of two periods of higher rates of turnover: the Younger Dryas–early Holocene transition (YD-EH; 11.6–9.0 kyr) and early–middle Holocene (EMH; 9.0–6.0 kyr). Results revealed a high frequency of turnover events between 12.75–11.5, 10.75–11, 10.25–10, 7.75–7.25, 3.25–3.0 and 1.75–.25 kyr. Furthermore, there was a strong linear relationship between pollen assemblage turnover and large directional temperature changes during the abrupt climate changes of the Lateglacial–early Holocene transition. In contrast, patterns of turnover during the Holocene were generally site-specific and during the EMH, we found evidence that the vegetation response was non-linear and highly variable across and between regions. Our results have implications for understanding the relationship between threshold dynamics and the amplitude of an extrinsic forcing. Across the Lateglacial–early Holocene boundary, the rate and magnitude of temperature change were large enough to override any site-specific thresholds, resulting in large assemblage turnovers. In contrast, during the Holocene, the vegetation response was mediated by intrinsic factors, which resulted in varying turnover rates between regions. The next research challenge is to attempt to determine whether it is possible to appreciate the velocity and rate of change that is necessary to result in these different responses and whether this rate is the same across biomes.

Biodiversity trends within the Holocene

There is a rapidly emerging interest in detecting and understanding biodiversity trends during the ‘Anthropocene’ in response to human stressors and climate change. Surprisingly few studies have, however, considered trends in biodiversity during the preceding Holocene. Here, we present general trends in terrestrial alpha- and beta-diversity and biomass for the four main ecological phases (protocratic, mesocratic, Homo sapiens, oligocratic) of the Holocene in north-west Europe based on palynological data at the meta-community scale. Alpha- and beta-diversity decreased in the protocratic, showed little change in the mesocratic, decreased in the oligocratic, and increased markedly in the Homo sapiens phase. Biomass was maximal in the mesocratic. Biodiversity changes in the last 200 years (‘Anthropocene’), as detected from palynological data, are small compared with the changes over the Holocene. There are minor decreases in α-diversity, spatial β-diversity and biomass and a slight increase in temporal β-diversity at sites on fertile soils. This analysis is designed to encourage ecologists and biogeographers interested in the ‘Anthropocene’ to extend the time-scale of their analyses and to consider whether ‘Anthropocene’ biodiversity trends are a simple continuation of trends in the late Holocene or whether recent ‘Anthropocene’ trends deviate from the long-term Holocene trends. Hopefully, it will also stimulate palaeoecologists to consider Holocene biodiversity trends in different geographical areas and different organism groups and ecological systems.

DIATOMS (BACILLARIOPHYTA) OF ISOLATED ISLANDS: NEW TAXA IN THE GENUS NAVICULA SENSU STRICTO FROM THE GALáPAGOS ISLANDS1

The diatoms (Bacillariophyta) from a coastal lagoon from the Diablas wetlands (Isla Isabela, the Galápagos Islands) were studied in material from surface samples and a sediment core spanning the past 2,700 years in order to examine evidence of diatom evolution under geographic isolation. The total number of taxa found was ∼100. Ultrastructural variation in valve morphology between members of Galápagos taxa was used to describe 10 species from the genus Navicula sensu stricto, which are new to science. Four taxa: N. isabelensis, N. isabelensoides, N. isabelensiformis, and N. isabelensiminor, shared several key characteristics that may be indicative of a common evolutionary heritage; these species therefore provide possible evidence for the in situ evolution of diatoms in the Galápagos coastal lagoons. Shared morphological characteristics include: (i) stria patterning in the central area, (ii) an elevated and thickened external raphe‐sternum, (iii) external central raphe endings that are slightly deflected toward the valve primary side, and (iv) an arched valve surface. To explain these findings, two models were proposed. The first suggested limited lateral diatomaceous transport of Navicula species between the Galápagos and continental South America. Alternatively, these new species may be ecological specialists arising from the unique environmental conditions of the Galápagos coastal lagoons, which restrict the colonization of common diatom taxa and enable the establishment of novel, rare species. The Diablas wetlands are an important site for diatom research, where local‐scale environmental changes have combined with global‐scale biogeographic processes resulting in unique diatom assemblages.

Managing bark beetle impacts on ecosystems and society: priority questions to motivate future research

Summary 1. Recent bark beetle outbreaks in North America and Europe have impacted forested landscapes and the provisioning of critical ecosystem services. The scale and intensity of many recent outbreaks are widely believed to be unprecedented. 2. The effects of bark beetle outbreaks on ecosystems are often measured in terms of area affected, host tree mortality rates, and alterations to forest structure and composition. 3. Impacts to human systems focus on changes in property valuation, infrastructure damage from falling trees, landscape aesthetics, and the quality and quantity of timber and water resources. 4. To advance our understanding of bark beetle impacts, we assembled a team of ecologists, land managers and social scientists to participate in a research prioritization workshop. 5. Synthesis and applications. We identified 25 key questions by using an established methodology to identify priorities for research into the impacts of bark beetles. Our efforts emphasize the need to improve outbreak monitoring and detection, educate the public on the ecological role of bark beetles, and develop integrated metrics that facilitate comparison of ecosystem services across sites.

Holocene carbon dynamics at the forest – steppe ecotone of southern Siberia

Abstract The forest–steppe ecotone in southern Siberia is highly sensitive to climate change; global warming is expected to push the ecotone northwards, at the same time resulting in degradation of the underlying permafrost. To gain a deeper understanding of long‐term forest–steppe carbon dynamics, we use a highly resolved, multiproxy, palaeolimnological approach, based on sediment records from Lake Baikal. We reconstruct proxies that are relevant to understanding carbon dynamics including carbon mass accumulation rates (CMAR; g C m−2 yr−1) and isotope composition of organic matter (δ 13 CTOC). Forest–steppe dynamics were reconstructed using pollen, and diatom records provided measures of primary production from near‐ and off‐shore communities. We used a generalized additive model (GAM) to identify significant change points in temporal series, and by applying generalized linear least‐squares regression modelling to components of the multiproxy data, we address (1) What factors influence carbon dynamics during early Holocene warming and late Holocene cooling? (2) How did carbon dynamics respond to abrupt sub‐Milankovitch scale events? and (3) What is the Holocene carbon storage budget for Lake Baikal. CMAR values range between 2.8 and 12.5 g C m−2 yr−1. Peak burial rates (and greatest variability) occurred during the early Holocene, associated with melting permafrost and retreating glaciers, while lowest burial rates occurred during the neoglacial. Significant shifts in carbon dynamics at 10.3, 4.1 and 2.8 kyr bp provide compelling evidence for the sensitivity of the region to sub‐Milankovitch drivers of climate change. We estimate that 1.03 Pg C was buried in Lake Baikal sediments during the Holocene, almost one‐quarter of which was buried during the early Holocene alone. Combined, our results highlight the importance of understanding the close linkages between carbon cycling and hydrological processes, not just temperatures, in southern Siberian environments.

Diatoms from isolated islands II: Pseudostaurosira diablarum, a new species from a mangrove ecosystem in the Galápagos Islands.

Identifying and describing biodiversity remains fundamental to developing a proper understanding of ecological and biogeographic processes. In this paper, we describe Pseudostaurosira diablarum Seddon & Witkowski sp. nov., a new diatom (Bacillariophyceae) species discovered from Las Diablas wetlands, a brackish water coastal lagoon on the Galápagos Islands. The taxon was observed in both the surface (i.e., extant) and core (i.e., sub-fossil) material from the lagoon, found on shaded mangrove substrata with salinities between 5.2 and 8 g L−1. These observations were confirmed by estimating the salinity tolerances of core samples from the palaeoecological record using a diatom salinity transfer function. We provide light and electron microscope images of P. diablarum sp. nov. Under the light microscope, the best diagnostic features are its lanceolate–elliptical shape, and the striae which are composed of a single row of areolae and do not occur all the way to the apices. Under the scanning/transmission electron microscope, the most distinctive features are the delicate closing plates which are less articulated and branched than in many of the other members of this genus, in addition to the simple, stunted spines which interrupt the striae on the valve margin. The taxon described here constitutes further evidence that the Diablas wetlands are an important site for diatom research, with the potential to provide insights into the processes resulting in the dispersal and evolution of its diatom species.