Allan J. Lichtman

The Self-Organization of American Society in Presidential and Senatorial Elections

The American electorate is commonly regarded as a hierarchic system of electoral groups that differ in their responses to the issues and tactics of electoral campaigns. Taken together, the groups comprise the entire electorate; they are normally represented in social or political organizations, but do not coincide with them. Cultural, social, economic, territorial, ethnic, and other factors divide voters into electoral groups. Each group, in turn, can be subdivided into smaller units, down to the indivisible, though variable element of the individual voter.

The Keys to the White House: A Preliminary Forecast for 2012

The Keys to the White House are an index-based prediction system that retrospectively account for the popular-vote winners of every US presidential election from 1860 to 1980 and prospectively forecast the winners of every presidential election from 1984 through 2008. The Keys demonstrate that American presidential elections do not turn on events of the campaign, but rather on the performance of the party controlling the White House. The Keys hold important lessons for politics in the United States and worldwide. A preliminary forecast based on the Keys indicates that President Obama is a likely winner in 2012, but also reveals the specific problems at home at abroad that could thwart his re-election.

What Really Happened in Florida's 2000 Presidential Election

New evidence from thousands of voting precincts confirms the finding of my report to the U.S. Commission on Civil Rights that in Florida�s 2000 presidential election, ballots cast by blacks were far more likely than ballots cast by whites to be rejected as invalid. If rejection rates had been equal for blacks and whites, blacks would have cast more than 50,000 additional votes. Racial differences in rejection rates cannot be explained by such factors as education or income, first‐time voting, ballot design, voting technology, or the race and party of election supervisors. John Lott�s attempt to refute these findings contradicts his earlier study and the report of two dissenting civil rights commissioners that relied on his work. His latest findings result from a flawed research design and are incredible on their face. Additional on‐the‐ground investigation in Florida is needed to test hypotheses about the reasons for the wide racial disparities in ballot rejection rates.

The Thirteen Keys to the Presidency.

The revolutionary system that reveals how presidential elections really work from the civil war to the 21st century. As controversial as it is compelling this book fundamentally alters our understanding of presidential politics.

Prejudice and the Old Politics: The Presidential Election of 1928

Chapter 1 Prologue: Al Smith versus Herbert Hoover Chapter 2 Introduction: Interpretations and Revisions Chapter 3 Catholics versus Protestants Chapter 4 Wets versus Drys Chapter 5 Immigrants versus Natives Chapter 6 City versus Country Chapter 7 Blacks versus Whites and Men versus Women Chapter 8 Economic Issues Chapter 9 Change and Continuity in Presidential Politics, 1916-1940 Chapter 10 Conclusions Chapter 11 Statistical Discussions Chapter 12 Appendix 1: Statistical Discussion Chapter 13 Appendix 2: Analysis of Seven Separate Regions Chapter 14 Appendix 3: Transcripts of the Republican Party Survey of Local Leaders Chapter 15 Appendix 4: Sources of the Statistical Data