Allan M. Walburger

An evaluation of supply chain performance in the Canadian pork sector

Examines the hog marketing system in Canada and the development of single‐desk hog marketing agencies, acting as central selling agencies, which have made an important contribution in enhancing the pork supply chain. Reports the results of a 1995 survey, soliciting opinions from representatives of meat packers, provincial marketing agencies and producers across Canada, from which a framework was developed to evaluate the efficiency of five main areas: production and distribution; equitable distribution of rewards; growth in pork processing; investment opportunities; and degree of competition. Emphasizes the vulnerability of the Canadian pork sector to increased competition from producers in other countries, and stresses the need for Canada to develop an effective supply chain in order to maximize its potential in this sector.

System Theoretic Time-Series Forecasts of Weekly Live Cattle Prices

Multivariate time-series forecasts of weekly live cattle prices in six different geographic markets are developed using a procedure based on the principles of linear systems theory. These forecasts were found to be informative and superior to those obtained from an alternative model. Following the approach developed for stock prices by Cerchi and Havenner, arbitrage portfolios were constructed from the model parameters. A simulation exercise based on 208 weekly observations withheld from model specification and estimation suggests that these arbitrage activities would have been profitable in practice.

The Economics of Sustainable Agriculture Alternatives on the Semiarid Canadian Prairies: The Case for Legumes and Organic Amendments

ABSTRACT The economic performance of rotations with reduced summerfallow frequency, legume crop alternatives, and manure applications was evaluated using data from a rotation experiment established in 1992 on Brown Chernozemic soil at Bow Island, Alberta (Alberta Crop Diversification Center South). Net returns and variability were calculated for each of the six rotations under test and for different fertilizer treatments, including manure (a total of 20 rotation and fertilizer treatment combinations). A farm-level economic risk model was formulated to simulate optimal rotation selection under uncertainty and risk aversion. The six rotations included continuous wheat (W), fallow-wheat (FW), fallow-wheat-wheat (FWW), flax-wheat-fallow (FxWF), legume-Allan wheat (LW), and grass (G). The wheat and flax phases of the fertilized rotations were fertilized with 0, 20 or 40 kg N ha−1 (0, 17.9 or 35.7 1bs N ac−1) and with 0 or 8.6 kg P ha−1 (7.7 lbs P ac−1). The W and FW rotations also had a manure treatment. Of the traditional cropping systems, the FWW and FW rotations (with applications of 40 kg ha−1 N: 8.6 kg ha−1P (35.7 1bs ac−1N: 7.7 1bs ac−1 P)and 20 kg ha−1N: 8.6kg ha−1P(17.81bs ac−1 N: 7.7 1bs ac −1 P), respectively), exhibited the highest returns and the FW(20,8.6) rotation experienced less variability. The simulation revealed that increases in net returns could be attained through the introduction of a LW rotation because of its ability to fix N and thus reduce the input costs. Risk averse producers would be expected to plant a combination of LW(0,0) and FW(40,8.6). W and FW rotations with manure treatments were not as profitable as those with chemical fertilizer treatments.