Allan N. Rae

Stochastic Programming, Utility, and Sequential Decision Problems in Farm Management

This paper presents a further development of discrete stochastic programming, viewed within the context of Bayesian decision theory. Some probability models and information structures (with and without additional information) are discussed, followed by an indication of how the stochastic programming matrix may be set up to reflect the various information structures. Some expected utility theories are then reviewed, and their usefulness in allowing the specification of a wide variety of objective functions for the stochastic programming model is illustrated. Lastly, a method is presented for determining the money value of additional information, additional resources, and the expected cost of uncertainty.

An Empirical Application and Evaluation of Discrete Stochastic Programming in Farm Management

Discrete stochastic programming has been suggested as a means of solving sequential decision problems under uncertainty, but as yet little or no empirical evidence of the capabilities of this technique in solving such problems has appeared. This paper presents in some detail an empirical application of discrete stochastic programming, including a discussion of data requirements, matrix construction, and solution interpretation. Based on this empirical evidence, the problem-solving potential of the technique is evaluated.

Livestock in China: Commodity-Specific Total Factor Productivity Decomposition Using New Panel Data

Studies of total factor productivity (TFP) in livestock production are rare, but when available provide useful information especially in the context of developing countries such as China where livestock is becoming more important in the domestic agricultural economy. We estimate TFP for four major livestock products in China employing the stochastic frontier approach, and decompose productivity growth into its technical efficiency (TE) and technical progress components. Efforts are made to adjust and augment the available livestock statistics. The results show that growth in TFP and its components varied between the 1980s and the 1990s as well as over production structures. While there is evidence of considerable technical innovation in Chinas livestock sector, TE improvement has been relatively slow.

The effects of expenditure growth and urbanisation on food consumption in East Asia: a note on animal products

Consumption functions for total animal-derived food products were estimated for six East Asian countries. Incorporation of urbanisation was found to make a significant contribution to the functions. The urbanisation elasticities were always positive, indicating that the process of urbanisation had a positive effect on the demand for animal food products. The expenditure elasticities were also positive, but often less than they would be if estimated from consumption functions that excluded the effects of urbanisation. Thus, projections of consumption that ignore the influence of urbanisation may be biased.

Future developments in global livestock and grains markets: the impacts of livestock productivity convergence in Asia-Pacific

Increasing livestock product consumption in many Asian countries has been accompanied by growth in some countries’ imports of feedgrains for their domestic livestock sectors. This contributes to debate over future levels of grain imports. Yet projections often pay little attention to developments in livestock production. The impacts of technological catch‐up in livestock production on trade in livestock and grains products among countries in the Asia‐Pacific region are assessed. Tests are conducted of the hypothesis that productivity levels in the Asia‐Pacific region are converging. Projections of livestock productivity are made and incorporated in a modified GTAP model. The consequences for regional and global trade in livestock and grains products are explored.

Processed food trade and developing countries: protection and trade liberalization

Abstract Exports of processed foods from developing countries have expanded rapidly in recent times, contributing to their economic development. Recent published research has shown that the export policies and agricultural resource endowment of the developing country offer significant explanations for this export growth. But what if developing countries further lowered their tariff barriers against imports? What impact would such policy changes have on processed food exports from developing countries? Alternatively, what if processed food trade barriers are lowered in developed countries? And if trade in manufactured goods were to be further liberalised, what might be the impacts on the processed food sectors of developing countries? An applied general equilibrium model is used to shed light on these questions through simulations of trade policy alternatives. Most developing regions examined had a positive effective protection rate for processed foods in the base year. This effective protection was lowered when such countries reduced their agricultural tariffs. When tariff cuts were extended to manufactured goods, effective protection of food processing in most developing regions increased somewhat, but was still less than base-period protection. For the developing countries, it would appear that comprehensive trade policy reforms, taken by themselves, are about as significant as those of the developed world in terms of contributing to growth in processed food exports from developing countries. Such reforms allow those developing countries with a comparative advantage in food production to expand exports and to take advantage of increased access to other developing countries with a less favourable agricultural resource endowment, as well as to developed country markets.

Changing food consumption patterns in East Asia: Implications of the trend towards livestock products

Rapid economic growth in East Asia is encouraging the increased contribution of livestock products to human diets. Consumption functions are estimated for white and red meats and dairy products and used to make projections to the year 2002. Consumption projections are next compared with likely developments in domestic production of livestock products. It is concluded that increased volumes of red meat imports will be required, that increased demand for white meat imports will be partially satisfied from within the region, and that all study countries will require increased dairy product imports. Uruguay Round implications are also considered.

China's agriculture, smallholders and trade: driven by the livestock revolution?*

Chinas sustained rapid economic growth and development has contributed to the surge in consumption and production of livestock in that country termed the livestock revolution. Consumption trends are first reviewed, and changes in food consumption patterns include a marked shift away from grains and towards meats and dairy products. A question is to what extent this rapid increase in demand for livestock products is reflected in Chinas agri-food trade statistics? While her agri-food imports have dramatically increased since Chinas accession to the WTO, livestock products have not made a noticeable contribution, although the import of certain animal feedstuffs has. This implies Chinas continuing self-sufficiency in most livestock products. The paper next considers developments in Chinas livestock farming sector and policies that have been contributing to these supply-side developments. The paper concludes with an examination of issues that may be important to the future development of Chinas, and the worlds, livestock situation; this includes future demand developments, and the question of whether future demand growth in China might be met with local production, imports of final product, and/or imports of feedstuffs.

Coping With Demand: Managing International Student Numbers at New Zealand Universities

Export education in New Zealand dates from the 1950s, with international students coming to study through the Commonwealth Colombo Plan. There has been a dramatic increase of international students studying in New Zealand. This research asks the questions: Are New Zealand public universities having to manage the international student numbers they face? If so, by what processes are they managing the numbers, and to what target number or percentages are these New Zealand education institutions aspiring? Selected for the study were the eight public universities in New Zealand. Of all respondents, seven have a target or quota of international students at their institution, ranging from 12% to 20% of the total enrolment. New Zealand public universities, although recognising the important contribution international students make to revenue streams and the internationalisation of their institution, saw it as important to consider other objectives and to manage international student numbers.

Food consumption patterns and nutrition in urban Java households: the discriminatory power of some socioeconomic variables

Food consumption patterns are undergoing substantial change in many countries as economic development proceeds. The trend is a move away from traditional cereals towards higher‐value and higher‐protein foods. Explaining such changes only in terms of traditional economic variables can lead to biased estimates of income effects and perhaps biased projections of food demand. Household survey data from Indonesia are used to measure the importance of several socioeconomic variables in explaining differences in household food consumption patterns and nutrition. Household expenditure and the level of women’s education are shown to be the most influential in this explanation.