Allan Peake

Re-inventing model-based decision support with Australian dryland farmers. 4. Yield Prophet® helps farmers monitor and manage crops in a variable climate.

In Australia, a land subject to high annual variation in grain yields, farmers find it challenging to adjust crop production inputs to yield prospects. Scientists have responded to this problem by developing Decision Support Systems, yet the scientists’ enthusiasm for developing these tools has not been reciprocated by farm managers or their advisers, who mostly continue to avoid their use. Preceding papers in this series described the FARMSCAPE intervention: a new paradigm for decision support that had significant effects on farmers and their advisers. These effects were achieved in large measure because of the intensive effort which scientists invested in engaging with their clients. However, such intensive effort is time consuming and economically unsustainable and there remained a need for a more cost-effective tool. In this paper, we report on the evolution, structure, and performance of Yield Prophet®: an internet service designed to move on from the FARMSCAPE model to a less intensive, yet high quality, service to reduce farmer uncertainty about yield prospects and the potential effects of alternative management practices on crop production and income. Compared with conventional Decision Support Systems, Yield Prophet offers flexibility in problem definition and allows farmers to more realistically specify the problems in their fields. Yield Prophet also uniquely provides a means for virtual monitoring of the progress of a crop throughout the season. This is particularly important for in-season decision support and for frequent reviewing, in real time, of the consequences of past decisions and past events on likely future outcomes. The Yield Prophet approach to decision support is consistent with two important, but often ignored, lessons from decision science: that managers make their decisions by satisficing rather than optimising and that managers’ fluid approach to decision making requires ongoing monitoring of the consequences of past decisions.

Trends in grain production and yield gaps in the high-rainfall zone of southern Australia

Abstract. The high-rainfall zone (HRZ) of southern Australia is the arable areas where annual rainfall is between 450 and 800 mm in Western Australia and between 500 and 900 mm in south-eastern Australia, resulting in a growing-season length of 7–10 months. In the last decade, there has been a growing recognition of the potential to increase crop production in the HRZ. We combined (1) a survey of 15 agricultural consultants, each of whom have ∼40–50 farmer clients across the HRZ, (2) 28 farm records of crop yields and area for 2000–2010, (3) 86 wheat and 54 canola yield observations from well managed experiments, and (4) long-term simulated crop yields at 13 HRZ locations, to investigate recent trends in crop production, quantify the gap between potential and actual crop yields, and consider the factors thought to limit on-farm crop yields in the HRZ. We found in the past 10 years a trend towards more cropping, particularly in WA, an increased use of canola, and advances in the adaptation of germplasm to HRZ environments using winter and longer-season spring types. Consultants and the farm survey data confirmed that the rate of future expansion of cropping in the HRZ will slow, especially when compared with the rapid changes seen in the 1990s. In Victoria, New South Wales and South Australia the long-term water-limited potential yield in HRZ areas, as measured by experimental yields, consultant estimates and simulations for slow developing spring cultivars of wheat and canola was 5–6 and 2–3 t/ha for a decile 5 season. For Western Australia it was 4–5 and 2–3 t/ha, where yields were less responsive to good seasons than in the other states. The top performing farmers were achieving close to the water-limited potential yield. There are yield advantages of ∼2 t/ha for ‘winter’ over ‘spring’ types of both wheat and canola, and there is scope for better adapted germplasm to further raise potential yield in the HRZ. Consultants stated that there is scope for large gains in yield and productivity by encouraging the below-average cropping farmers to adopt the practices and behaviours of the above-average farmers. The scope for improvement between the below- and above-average farmers was 1–3 t/ha for wheat and 0.5–1.5 t/ha for canola in a decile 5 season. They also stated that a lack of up-to-date infrastructure (e.g. farm grain storage) and services is constraining the industry’s ability to adopt new technology. Priorities for future research, development and extension among consultants included: overcoming yield constraints where growing-season rainfall exceeds 350 mm; adaptation of winter and long-season spring types of cereals and canola and management of inputs required to express their superior yield potential; and overcoming barriers to improved planning and timeliness for crop operations and adoption of technology.

Vegetative nitrogen stress decreases lodging risk and increases yield of irrigated spring wheat in the subtropics.

Abstract. In-crop nitrogen (N) application is used widely in rainfed winter wheat production to reduce lodging risk; however, uncertainty exists as to its ability to reduce lodging risk in subtropical irrigated wheat production without simultaneously reducing yield potential. The objective of this study was therefore to determine whether in-crop N application reduces lodging risk without reducing yield of irrigated spring wheat in a subtropical environment. Irrigated small-plot experiments were conducted to compare the effect of alternative N timing on lodging and yield in two cultivars. Variable N regimes were imposed during the vegetative growth phase, after which additional N was applied to ensure that total season N application was uniform across N-timing treatments. Treatments with low N at sowing had significantly less lodging and were the highest yielding, exhibiting yield increases of up to 0.8 t ha–1 compared to treatments with high N at sowing. Increased leaf area index, biomass and tiller count at the end of the vegetative growth phase were correlated with increased lodging in both cultivars, although the strength of the correlation varied with cultivar and season. We conclude that canopy-management techniques can be used to simultaneously increase yield and decrease lodging in irrigated spring wheat in the subtropics, but require different implementation from techniques used in temperate regions of Australia.