Allan Schapira

Comparing the effectiveness of malaria vector-control interventions through a mathematical model.

Although some malaria-control programs are beginning to combine insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS), little is known about the effectiveness of such combinations. We use a mathematical model to compare the effectiveness of ITNs and IRS with dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT) or bendiocarb, applied singly and in combination, in an epidemiological setting based in Namawala, Tanzania, with Anopheles gambiae as the primary vector. Our model indicates that although both IRS (with DDT) and ITNs provide personal protection, humans with only ITNs are better protected than those with only IRS, and suggests that high coverage of IRS with bendiocarb may interrupt transmission, as can simultaneous high coverage of ITNs and IRS with DDT. When adding a second vector-control intervention, it is more effective to cover the unprotected population first. Although our model includes some assumptions and approximations that remain to be addressed, these findings should be useful for prioritizing and designing future field research.

Towards a comprehensive simulation model of malaria epidemiology and control

Planning of the control of Plasmodium falciparum malaria leads to a need for models of malaria epidemiology that provide realistic quantitative prediction of likely epidemiological outcomes of a wide range of control strategies. Predictions of the effects of control often ignore medium- and long-term dynamics. The complexities of the Plasmodium life-cycle, and of within-host dynamics, limit the applicability of conventional deterministic malaria models. We use individual-based stochastic simulations of malaria epidemiology to predict the impacts of interventions on infection, morbidity, mortality, health services use and costs. Individual infections are simulated by stochastic series of parasite densities, and naturally acquired immunity acts by reducing densities. Morbidity and mortality risks, and infectiousness to vectors, depend on parasite densities. The simulated infections are nested within simulations of individuals in human populations, and linked to models of interventions and health systems. We use numerous field datasets to optimise parameter estimates. By using a volunteer computing system we obtain the enormous computational power required for model fitting, sensitivity analysis, and exploration of many different intervention strategies. The project thus provides a general platform for comparing, fitting, and evaluating different model structures, and for quantitative prediction of effects of different interventions and integrated control programmes.

What should vaccine developers ask? Simulation of the effectiveness of malaria vaccines.

Background A number of different malaria vaccine candidates are currently in pre-clinical or clinical development. Even though they vary greatly in their characteristics, it is unlikely that any of them will provide long-lasting sterilizing immunity against the malaria parasite. There is great uncertainty about what the minimal vaccine profile should be before registration is worthwhile; how to allocate resources between different candidates with different profiles; which candidates to consider combining; and what deployment strategies to consider. Methods and Findings We use previously published stochastic simulation models, calibrated against extensive epidemiological data, to make quantitative predictions of the population effects of malaria vaccines on malaria transmission, morbidity and mortality. The models are fitted and simulations obtained via volunteer computing. We consider a range of endemic malaria settings with deployment of vaccines via the Expanded program on immunization (EPI), with and without additional booster doses, and also via 5-yearly mass campaigns for a range of coverages. The simulation scenarios account for the dynamic effects of natural and vaccine induced immunity, for treatment of clinical episodes, and for births, ageing and deaths in the cohort. Simulated pre-erythrocytic vaccines have greatest benefits in low endemic settings (EIR of 84) PEV may lead to increased incidence of severe disease in the long term, if efficacy is moderate to low (<70%). Blood stage vaccines (BSV) are most useful in high transmission settings, and are comparable to PEV for low transmission settings. Combinations of PEV and BSV generally perform little better than the best of the contributing components. A minimum half-life of protection of 2–3 years appears to be a precondition for substantial epidemiological effects. Herd immunity effects can be achieved with even moderately effective (>20%) malaria vaccines (either PEV or BSV) when deployed through mass campaigns targeting all age-groups as well as EPI, and especially if combined with highly efficacious transmission-blocking components. Conclusions We present for the first time a stochastic simulation approach to compare likely effects on morbidity, mortality and transmission of a range of malaria vaccines and vaccine combinations in realistic epidemiological and health systems settings. The results raise several issues for vaccine clinical development, in particular appropriateness of vaccine types for different transmission settings; the need to assess transmission to the vector and duration of protection; and the importance of deployment additional to the EPI, which again may make the issue of number of doses required more critical. To test the validity and robustness of our conclusions there is a need for further modeling (and, of course, field research) using alternative formulations for both natural and vaccine induced immunity. Evaluation of alternative deployment strategies outside EPI needs to consider the operational implications of different approaches to mass vaccination.

Malaria Policy Advisory Committee to the WHO: conclusions and recommendations of sixth biannual meeting (September 2014).

The Malaria Policy Advisory Committee to the World Health Organization held its sixth meeting in Geneva, Switzerland from 10 to 12 September 2014. This article provides a summary of the discussions, conclusions and recommendations from that meeting.Meeting sessions covered the following: an update on drug resistance and containment including an assessment on the feasibility of elimination of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in the Greater Mekong Subregion; guidance on the control of residual malaria transmission by behaviourally resistant vectors; progress on the implementation of the Global Plan for Insecticide Resistance Management; updates on the Global Technical Strategy, Global Malaria Action Plan and the Plasmodium vivax technical brief; gaps in current World Health Organization Global Malaria Programme guidance for acceleration to elimination; surveillance, monitoring and evaluation; the updated World Health Organization Guidelines for the Prevention and Treatment of Malaria; Round 5 product testing for rapid diagnostic tests; and Intermittent Preventive Treatment for infants.Policy statements, position statements, and guidelines that arise from the Malaria Policy Advisory Committee meeting conclusions and recommendations will be formally issued and disseminated to World Health Organization Member States by the World Health Organization Global Malaria Programme.The Malaria Policy Advisory Committee to the World Health Organization held its sixth meeting in Geneva, Switzerland from 10 to 12 September 2014. This article provides a summary of the discussions, conclusions and recommendations from that meeting. Meeting sessions covered the following: an update on drug resistance and containment including an assessment on the feasibility of elimination of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in the Greater Mekong Subregion; guidance on the control of residual malaria transmission by behaviourally resistant vectors; progress on the implementation of the Global Plan for Insecticide Resistance Management; updates on the Global Technical Strategy, Global Malaria Action Plan and the Plasmodium vivax technical brief; gaps in current World Health Organization Global Malaria Programme guidance for acceleration to elimination; surveillance, monitoring and evaluation; the updated World Health Organization Guidelines for the Prevention and Treatment of Malaria; Round 5 product testing for rapid diagnostic tests; and Intermittent Preventive Treatment for infants. Policy statements, position statements, and guidelines that arise from the Malaria Policy Advisory Committee meeting conclusions and recommendations will be formally issued and disseminated to World Health Organization Member States by the World Health Organization Global Malaria Programme.

Quantifying the Evolution and Impact of Antimalarial Drug Resistance: Drug Use, Spread of Resistance, and Drug Failure over a 12-Year Period in Papua New Guinea

BACKGROUND. Antimalarial use is a key factor driving drug resistance and reduced treatment effectiveness in Plasmodium falciparum malaria, but there are few formal, quantitative analyses of this process. METHODS. We analyzed drug usage, drug failure rates, and the frequencies of mutations and haplotypes known to be associated with drug resistance over a 12-year period (1991-2002) in a site in Papua New Guinea. This period included 2 successive treatment policies: amodiaquine (AQ) or chloroquine (CQ) from 1991 through 2000 and their subsequent replacement by sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) plus AQ or SP plus CQ. RESULTS. Drug use approximated 1 treatment per person-year and was associated with increasing frequencies of pfcrt and pfmdr1 mutations and of treatment failure. The frequency of pfdhfr mutations also increased, especially after the change in treatment policy. Treatment failure rates multiplied by 3.5 between 1996 and 2000 but then decreased dramatically after treatment policy change. CONCLUSIONS. With high levels of resistance to CQ, AQ, and SP, the deployment of the combination of both drugs appears to increase clinical effectiveness but does not decelerate growth of resistance. Our estimates of mutation and haplotype frequencies provide estimates of selection coefficients acting in this environment, which are key parameters for understanding the dynamics of resistance.

Tackling malaria today

In most countries where malaria is endemic, elimination is still not feasible, and the best strategy is steady progress towards universal coverage with key interventions

Malaria ecotypes and stratification

To deal with the variability of malaria, control programmes need to stratify their malaria problem into a number of smaller units. Such stratification may be based on the epidemiology of malaria or on its determinants such as ecology. An ecotype classification was developed by the World Health Organization (WHO) around 1990, and it is time to assess its usefulness for current malaria control as well as for malaria modelling on the basis of published research. Journal and grey literature was searched for articles on malaria or Anopheles combined with ecology or stratification. It was found that all malaria in the world today could be assigned to one or more of the following ecotypes: savanna, plains and valleys; forest and forest fringe; foothill; mountain fringe and northern and southern fringes; desert fringe; coastal and urban. However, some areas are in transitional or mixed zones; furthermore, the implications of any ecotype depend on the biogeographical region, sometimes subregion, and finally, the knowledge on physiography needs to be supplemented by local information on natural, anthropic and health system processes including malaria control. Ecotyping can therefore not be seen as a shortcut to determine control interventions, but rather as a framework to supplement available epidemiological and entomological data so as to assess malaria situations at the local level, think through the particular risks and opportunities and reinforce intersectoral action. With these caveats, it does however emerge that several ecotypic distinctions are well defined and have relatively constant implications for control within certain biogeographic regions. Forest environments in the Indo-malay and the Neotropics are, with a few exceptions, associated with much higher malaria risk than in adjacent areas; the vectors are difficult to control, and the anthropic factors also often converge to impose constraints. Urban malaria in Africa is associated with lower risk than savanna malaria; larval control may be considered though its role is not so far well established. In contrast, urban malaria in the Indian subcontinent is associated with higher risks than most adjacent rural areas, and larval control has a definite, though not exclusive, role. Simulation modelling of cost-effectiveness of malaria control strategies in different scenarios should prioritize ecotypes where malaria control encounters serious technical problems. Further field research on malaria and ecology should be interdisciplinary, especially with geography, and pay more attention to juxtapositions and to anthropic elements, especially migration.

Inaugural meeting of the malaria policy advisory committee to the WHO: conclusions and recommendations

The Malaria Policy Advisory Committee to the World Health Organization met for the first time from 31 January to 2 February 2012 in Geneva, Switzerland. This article provides a summary of the discussions, conclusions and recommendations from that meeting, as part of the newly launched Malaria Journal thematic series “WHO Malaria Policy Advisory Committee: Reports and Recommendations”. Summaries are provided, referencing the relevant background documents, for the meeting sessions on global malaria control, drug resistance and containment, rapid diagnostic test procurement criteria, larviciding, classification of countries for elimination, estimating malaria cases and deaths, and seasonal malaria chemoprevention. Policy statements, position statements, and guidelines that will arise from the MPAC meeting conclusions and recommendations will be formally issued and disseminated to World Health Organization member states by the World Health Organization Global Malaria Programme.The Malaria Policy Advisory Committee to the World Health Organization met for the first time from 31 January to 2 February 2012 in Geneva, Switzerland. This article provides a summary of the discussions, conclusions and recommendations from that meeting, as part of the newly launched Malaria Journal thematic series “WHO Malaria Policy Advisory Committee: Reports and Recommendations”.Summaries are provided, referencing the relevant background documents, for the meeting sessions on global malaria control, drug resistance and containment, rapid diagnostic test procurement criteria, larviciding, classification of countries for elimination, estimating malaria cases and deaths, and seasonal malaria chemoprevention. Policy statements, position statements, and guidelines that will arise from the MPAC meeting conclusions and recommendations will be formally issued and disseminated to World Health Organization member states by the World Health Organization Global Malaria Programme.

Mapping multiple components of malaria risk for improved targeting of elimination interventions

There is a long history of considering the constituent components of malaria risk and the malaria transmission cycle via the use of mathematical models, yet strategic planning in endemic countries tends not to take full advantage of available disease intelligence to tailor interventions. National malaria programmes typically make operational decisions about where to implement vector control and surveillance activities based upon simple categorizations of annual parasite incidence. With technological advances, an enormous opportunity exists to better target specific malaria interventions to the places where they will have greatest impact by mapping and evaluating metrics related to a variety of risk components, each of which describes a different facet of the transmission cycle. Here, these components and their implications for operational decision-making are reviewed. For each component, related mappable malaria metrics are also described which may be measured and evaluated by malaria programmes seeking to better understand the determinants of malaria risk. Implementing tailored programmes based on knowledge of the heterogeneous distribution of the drivers of malaria transmission rather than only consideration of traditional metrics such as case incidence has the potential to result in substantial improvements in decision-making. As programmes improve their ability to prioritize their available tools to the places where evidence suggests they will be most effective, elimination aspirations may become increasingly feasible.

Modeling the effects of vector control interventions in reducing malaria transmission, morbidity and mortality

Malaria interventions are usually prioritized using efficacy estimates from intervention trials, without considering the context of existing intervention packages or long-term dynamics. We use numerical simulation of mathematical models of malaria in humans and mosquitoes to provide robust quantitative predictions of effectiveness of different strategies in reducing transmission, morbidity and mortality. We can simulate indoor residual spraying (IRS) and insecticide-treated nets (ITNs), used singly and in combination with each other and with other interventions such as improved case management, intermittent preventive treatment (IPT). We can estimate reductions in entomological inoculation rate (EIR), clinical cases, prevalence and malaria deaths from simulations of different coverage levels ITNs and IRS with different properties, and at different transmission and health system settings. Our results suggest that sustained coverage of one or two interventions reduces malaria prevalence in two to three years but does not lead to further gains (Figure ​(Figure1).1). However, in some settings, even with sustained coverage, clinical incidence of malaria increases as the population loses its naturally acquired immunity. In some low to medium transmission settings, our simulations suggest that high coverage of both interventions can lead to interruption of transmission. Figure 1 Model predictions of the effect of IRS with DDT on malaria prevalence. We assume two annual IRS DDT spray rounds (each with 95% coverage) for 12 years; simulations are of 1000 humans exposed to seasonal transmission based on a Tanzanian setting, with ...