Almut Arneth

Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison

Significance Agriculture is arguably the sector most affected by climate change, but assessments differ and are thus difficult to compare. We provide a globally consistent, protocol-based, multimodel climate change assessment for major crops with explicit characterization of uncertainty. Results with multimodel agreement indicate strong negative effects from climate change, especially at higher levels of warming and at low latitudes where developing countries are concentrated. Simulations that consider explicit nitrogen stress result in much more severe impacts from climate change, with implications for adaptation planning. Here we present the results from an intercomparison of multiple global gridded crop models (GGCMs) within the framework of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project and the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project. Results indicate strong negative effects of climate change, especially at higher levels of warming and at low latitudes; models that include explicit nitrogen stress project more severe impacts. Across seven GGCMs, five global climate models, and four representative concentration pathways, model agreement on direction of yield changes is found in many major agricultural regions at both low and high latitudes; however, reducing uncertainty in sign of response in mid-latitude regions remains a challenge. Uncertainties related to the representation of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, and high temperature effects demonstrated here show that further research is urgently needed to better understand effects of climate change on agricultural production and to devise targeted adaptation strategies.

Global patterns of land‐atmosphere fluxes of carbon dioxide, latent heat, and sensible heat derived from eddy covariance, satellite, and meteorological observations

We upscaled FLUXNET observations of carbon dioxide, water, and energy fluxes to the global scale using the machine learning technique, model tree ensembles (MTE). We trained MTE to predict site-level gross primary productivity (GPP), terrestrial ecosystem respiration (TER), net ecosystem exchange (NEE), latent energy (LE), and sensible heat (H) based on remote sensing indices, climate and meteorological data, and information on land use. We applied the trained MTEs to generate global flux fields at a 0.5 degrees x 0.5 degrees spatial resolution and a monthly temporal resolution from 1982 to 2008. Cross-validation analyses revealed good performance of MTE in predicting among-site flux variability with modeling efficiencies (MEf) between 0.64 and 0.84, except for NEE (MEf = 0.32). Performance was also good for predicting seasonal patterns (MEf between 0.84 and 0.89, except for NEE (0.64)). By comparison, predictions of monthly anomalies were not as strong (MEf between 0.29 and 0.52). Improved accounting of disturbance and lagged environmental effects, along with improved characterization of errors in the training data set, would contribute most to further reducing uncertainties. Our global estimates of LE (158 +/- 7 J x 10(18) yr(-1)), H (164 +/- 15 J x 10(18) yr(-1)), and GPP (119 +/- 6 Pg C yr(-1)) were similar to independent estimates. Our global TER estimate (96 +/- 6 Pg C yr(-1)) was likely underestimated by 5-10%. Hot spot regions of interannual variability in carbon fluxes occurred in semiarid to semihumid regions and were controlled by moisture supply. Overall, GPP was more important to interannual variability in NEE than TER. Our empirically derived fluxes may be used for calibration and evaluation of land surface process models and for exploratory and diagnostic assessments of the biosphere.

The dominant role of semi-arid ecosystems in the trend and variability of the land CO2 sink

The difference is found at the margins The terrestrial biosphere absorbs about a quarter of all anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions, but the amount that they take up varies from year to year. Why? Combining models and observations, Ahlström et al. found that marginal ecosystems—semiarid savannas and low-latitude shrublands—are responsible for most of the variability. Biological productivity in these semiarid regions is water-limited and strongly associated with variations in precipitation, unlike wetter tropical areas. Understanding carbon uptake by these marginal lands may help to improve predictions of variations in the global carbon cycle. Science, this issue p. 895 Semi-arid regions cause most of the interannual variability of the terrestrial carbon dioxide sink. The growth rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations since industrialization is characterized by large interannual variability, mostly resulting from variability in CO2 uptake by terrestrial ecosystems (typically termed carbon sink). However, the contributions of regional ecosystems to that variability are not well known. Using an ensemble of ecosystem and land-surface models and an empirical observation-based product of global gross primary production, we show that the mean sink, trend, and interannual variability in CO2 uptake by terrestrial ecosystems are dominated by distinct biogeographic regions. Whereas the mean sink is dominated by highly productive lands (mainly tropical forests), the trend and interannual variability of the sink are dominated by semi-arid ecosystems whose carbon balance is strongly associated with circulation-driven variations in both precipitation and temperature.

Evaporation from an eastern Siberian larch forest

Total forest evaporation (λE), understorey evaporation, and environmental variables were measured on nine summer days under different weather conditions in a 130-year-old stand of Larix gmelinii (Rupr.) Rupr. trees located 160 km south of Yakutsk in eastern Siberia, Russia (61°N, 128°E, 300m above sea-level (a.s.l.)). Tree and broad-leaved understorey vegetation one-sided leaf area indices were 1.5 and 1.0, respectively. Agreement of λE and sensible heat flux (H), both measured by eddy covariance, and the available energy (Ra) was generally good: (H + λE) = 0.83 Ra + 9 W m−2 with r2 = 0.92 for 364 half-hour periods and the mean ± 95% confidence limit was 129 ± 17 for (H + λE) and 144 ± 19 for Ra. Daily E was 1.6–2.2 min, less than half of the potential evaporation rate and accounting for 31–50% of Ra, with the lowest percentage on clear days. A perusal of the sparse literature revealed that average daily E of boreal coniferous forest during the tree growing season (1.9 mm day−1 for this study) is relatively conservative, suggesting that low evaporation rates are a feature of this biomes energy balance. Using the Penman-Monteith equation, the maximum bulk-surface conductance (Gsmax) was 10 mm s−1. E and Gs were regulated by irradiance, air saturation deficit, and surface soil water content during a week-long dry period following 20 mm rainfall. From lysimeter measurements, 50% of E emanated from the understorey at a rate proportional to Ra. Based on the measurements and published climatological data, including average annual precipitation equal to 213 mm, water balance calculations indicated growing season forest E equal to 169 mm, the occurrence of a late summer-autumn soil water deficit, and annual runoff of 44 mm by snowmelt.

Robustness and uncertainty in terrestrial ecosystem carbon response to CMIP5 climate change projections

We have investigated the spatio-temporal carbon balance patterns resulting from forcing a dynamic global vegetation model with output from 18 climate models of the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) ensemble. We found robust patterns in terms of an extra-tropical loss of carbon, except for a temperature induced shift in phenology, leading to an increased spring uptake of carbon. There are less robust patterns in the tropics, a result of disagreement in projections of precipitation and temperature. Although the simulations generally agree well in terms of the sign of the carbon balance change in the middle to high latitudes, there are large differences in the magnitude of the loss between simulations. Together with tropical uncertainties these discrepancies accumulate over time, resulting in large differences in total carbon uptake over the coming century (−0.97–2.27 Pg C yr −1 during 2006–2100). The terrestrial biosphere becomes a net source of carbon in ten of the 18 simulations adding to the atmospheric CO 2 concentrations, while the remaining eight simulations indicate an increased sink of carbon. (Less)

Forest-atmosphere carbon dioxide exchange in eastern Siberia

We investigated the daily exchange of CO2 between undisturbed Larix gmelinii (Rupr.) Rupr. forest and the atmosphere at a remote Siberian site during July and August of 1993. Our goal was to measure and partition total CO2 exchanges into aboveground and belowground components by measuring forest and understory eddy and storage fluxes and then to determine the relationships between the environmental factors and these observations of ecosystem metabolism. Maximum net CO2 uptake of the forest ecosystem was extremely low compared to the forests elsewhere, reaching a peak of only 5 mmol m ˇ2 s ˇ1 late in the morning. Net ecosystem CO2 uptake increased with increasing photosynthetically active photon flux density (PPFD) and decreased as the atmospheric water vapor saturation deficit (D) increased. Daytime ecosystem CO2 uptake increased immediately after rain and declined sharply after about six days of drought. Ecosystem respiration at night averaged2.4 mmol m ˇ2 s ˇ1 with about 40% of this coming from the forest floor (roots and heterotrophs). The relationship between the understory eddy flux and soil temperature at 5 cm followed an Arrhenius model, increasing exponentially with temperature (Q102.3) so that on hot summer afternoons the ecosystem became a source of CO2. Tree canopy CO2 exchange was calculated as the difference between above and below canopy eddy flux. Canopy uptake saturated at 6 mmol CO2 m ˇ2 s ˇ1 for a PPFD above 500 mmol m ˇ2 s ˇ1 and decreased with increasing D. The optimal stomatal control model of

CO2 inhibition of global terrestrial isoprene emissions: Potential implications for atmospheric chemistry

[1] Isoprene is the dominant volatile organic compound produced by the terrestrial biosphere and fundamental for atmospheric composition and climate. It constrains the concentration of tropospheric oxidants, affecting the lifetime of other reduced species such as methane and contributing to ozone production. Oxidation products of isoprene contribute to aerosol growth. Recent consensus holds that emissions were low during glacial periods ( helping to explain low methane concentrations), while high emissions ( contributing to high ozone concentrations) can be expected in a greenhouse world, due to positive relationships with temperature and terrestrial productivity. However, this response is offset when the recently demonstrated inhibition of leaf isoprene emissions by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration is accounted for in a process-based model. Thus, isoprene may play a small role in determining pre-industrial tropospheric OH concentration and glacial-interglacial methane trends, while predictions of high future tropospheric O-3 concentrations partly driven by isoprene emissions may need to be revised. (Less)

Evaporation from a central Siberian pine forest

Total forest evaporation, E, understorey evaporation, Eu, and environmental variables were measured for 18 consecutive mid-summer days during July 1996 in a 215-year-old stand of Pinus sylvestris L. trees located 40 km southwest of the village of Zotino in central siberia, Russia (61°N, 89°E, 160 m asl). Tree and lichen (Cladonia and Cladina spp.) understorey one-sided leaf and surface-area indices were 1.5 and 6.0, respectively. Daily E, measured by eddy covariance, was 0.8–2.3 mm day−1 which accounted for 15–67% of the available energy, Ra. Following 12 mm rainfall, daily E reached a maximum on the second day (the first clear day) but declined rapidly thereafter to reach minimum rates within one week. The sandy soil had a range of water content equivalent to only 4 mm water per 100 mm depth of soil. It was estimated that 38% of soil water was utilised before water deficit began to limit E. Eu, also measured by eddy covariance and by lysimeters, was 0.5 to 1.6 mm day−1 or 33–92% of E. Eu was proportional to Ra, but in response to soil drying, the slope of this linear relation declined by a factor of three to a minimum value only three days after the rainfall. Based on the measurements and climatological data, including average annual precipitation of 600 mm year−1 with half as rain during the nominal growing season (1 May to 30 September), water balance calculations suggested E was 265 mm per growing season.

Vertical profiles, boundary layer budgets, and regional flux estimates for CO2 and its 13C/12C ratio and for water vapor above a forest/bog mosaic in central Siberia

On July 15 and 16, 1996, profiles of temperature, water vapor, carbon dioxide concentration, and its carbon isotopic composition were made within and above the convective boundary layer (CBL), near the village of Zotino in central Siberia (60°N, 89°E). On both days the CBL grew to a height of around 1000 m at midday after which little further growth was observed. This was despite high rates of sensible heat flux into the CBL from the predominantly coniferous vegetation below and was attributable to a high subsidence velocity. For all flights, marked discontinuities across the top of the CBL were observed for water vapor and CO2 concentrations with differences between the CBL and the free troposphere above being as high as 10 mmol mol−1 and 13 μmol mol−1, respectively. Associated with the lower CO2 concentrations within the CBL was an enrichment of the δ 13C in CO2 of up to 0.7‰. Although for any one flight, fluctuations in CO2 and δ13C within the CBL were small (less than 3 μmol mol−1 and 0.1 ‰); they were well correlated and suggested a photosynthetic discrimination, Δ, by the vegetation below of ∼17‰. Estimates of regional Δ based on CBL budgeting techniques suggested values ranging from 14.8 to 20.4 ‰. CBL budgeting techniques were also used to estimate regional ecosystem carbon fluxes (−3 to −9 μmol m−2 s−1) and evaporation rates (1−3 mmol m−2 s−1). Agreement with ground-based tower measurements was reasonable, but a bootstrap error analysis suggested that errors associated with the integral CBL technique were sometimes unacceptably large, especially for estimates of regional photosynthetic 13C discrimination and regional evaporation rates. Conditions under which CBL techniques should result in reasonably accurate estimations of regional fluxes and isotopic fractionations are evaluated.

Volatile isoprenoid emissions from plastid to planet

Approximately 1-2% of net primary production by land plants is re-emitted to the atmosphere as isoprene and monoterpenes. These emissions play major roles in atmospheric chemistry and air pollution-climate interactions. Phenomenological models have been developed to predict their emission rates, but limited understanding of the function and regulation of these emissions has led to large uncertainties in model projections of air quality and greenhouse gas concentrations. We synthesize recent advances in diverse fields, from cell physiology to atmospheric remote sensing, and use this information to propose a simple conceptual model of volatile isoprenoid emission based on regulation of metabolism in the chloroplast. This may provide a robust foundation for scaling up emissions from the cellular to the global scale.