Alvaro Alonso

Meta-analysis of Cohort and Case-Control Studies of Type-2 Diabetes Mellitus and Risk of Atrial Fibrillation

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is 1 of the most clinically diagnosed cardiac disturbances but little is known about its risk factors. Previous epidemiologic studies have reported on the association between diabetes mellitus (DM) and subsequent risk of AF, with inconsistent results. The aim of this study was to conduct a meta-analysis of published studies to reliably determine the direction and magnitude of any association between DM and AF. A systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted. PubMed and EMBASE were searched to identify prospective cohort and case-control studies that had reported on the association between DM and other measurements of glucose homeostasis with incident AF by April 2010. Studies conducted in primarily high-risk populations and participants in randomized controlled trials were excluded. Seven prospective cohort studies and 4 case-control studies with information on 108,703 cases of AF in 1,686,097 subjects contributed to this analysis. The summary estimate indicated that patients with DM had an approximate 40% greater risk of AF compared to unaffected patients (relative risk [RR] 1.39, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.10 to 1.75, p for heterogeneity <0.001). After correcting for publication bias, the RR was 1.34 (1.07 to 1.68). Studies that had adjusted for multiple risk factors reported a smaller effect estimate compared to age-adjusted studies (RR 1.24, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.44, vs 1.70, 1.29 to 2.22, p for heterogeneity = 0.053). The population-attributable fraction of AF owing to DM was 2.5% (95% CI 0.1 to 3.9). In conclusion, DM is associated with an increased risk of subsequent AF but the mechanisms that may underpin the relation between DM and AF remain speculative.

Type 2 diabetes, glucose homeostasis and incident atrial fibrillation: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study

Background Type 2 diabetes has been inconsistently associated with the risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) in previous studies that have frequently been beset by methodological challenges. Design Prospective cohort study. Setting The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study. Participants Detailed medical histories were obtained from 13 025 participants. Individuals were categorised as having no diabetes, pre-diabetes or diabetes based on the 2010 American Diabetes Association criteria at study baseline (1990–2). Main outcome measures Diagnoses of incident AF were obtained to the end of 2007. Associations between type 2 diabetes and markers of glucose homeostasis and the incidence of AF were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models after adjusting for possible confounders. Results Type 2 diabetes was associated with a significant increase in the risk of AF (HR 1.35, 95% CI 1.14 to 1.60) after adjustment for confounders. There was no indication that individuals with pre-diabetes or those with undiagnosed diabetes were at increased risk of AF compared with those without diabetes. A positive linear association was observed between HbA1c and the risk of AF in those with and without diabetes (HR 1.13, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.20) and HR 1.05, 95% CI 0.96 to 1.15 per 1% point increase, respectively). There was no association between fasting glucose or insulin in those without diabetes, but a significant association with fasting glucose was found in those with the condition. The results were similar in white subjects and African-Americans. Conclusions Diabetes, HbA1c level and poor glycaemic control are independently associated with an increased risk of AF, but the underlying mechanisms governing the relationship are unknown and warrant further investigation.

Genome-partitioning of genetic variation for complex traits using common SNPs

We estimate and partition genetic variation for height, body mass index (BMI), von Willebrand factor and QT interval (QTi) using 586,898 SNPs genotyped on 11,586 unrelated individuals. We estimate that ∼45%, ∼17%, ∼25% and ∼21% of the variance in height, BMI, von Willebrand factor and QTi, respectively, can be explained by all autosomal SNPs and a further ∼0.5–1% can be explained by X chromosome SNPs. We show that the variance explained by each chromosome is proportional to its length, and that SNPs in or near genes explain more variation than SNPs between genes. We propose a new approach to estimate variation due to cryptic relatedness and population stratification. Our results provide further evidence that a substantial proportion of heritability is captured by common SNPs, that height, BMI and QTi are highly polygenic traits, and that the additive variation explained by a part of the genome is approximately proportional to the total length of DNA contained within genes therein.

Temporal trends in the incidence of multiple sclerosis A systematic review

Background: Multiple sclerosis (MS) has been traditionally considered to be more frequent in women and in regions more distant from the equator. However, recent reports suggest that the latitude gradient could be disappearing and that the female-to-male ratio among patients with MS has increased in the last decades. We have conducted a systematic review of incidence studies of MS to assess the overall incidence of MS and explore possible changes in the latitude gradient and the female-to-male ratio over time. Methods: Systematic review of incidence studies of MS published in Medline between 1966 and February 2007. Age- and sex-specific incidence rates were collected from eligible publications. We computed age-adjusted rates using the world population as standard, and assessed differences in rates according to latitude and period of case ascertainment. Additionally, we evaluated the association between period of case ascertainment and the female-to-male ratio. Results: The overall incidence rate of MS was 3.6 cases per 100,000 person-years (95% CI 3.0, 4.2) in women and 2.0 (95% CI 1.5, 2.4) in men. Higher latitude was associated with higher MS incidence, though this latitude gradient was attenuated after 1980, apparently due to increased incidence of MS in lower latitudes. The female-to-male ratio in MS incidence increased over time, from an estimated 1.4 in 1955 to 2.3 in 2000. Conclusion: The latitude gradient present in older incidence studies of multiple sclerosis (MS) is decreasing. The female-to-male MS ratio has increased in the last five decades.

Common variants in KCNN3 are associated with lone atrial fibrillation

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common sustained arrhythmia. Previous studies have identified several genetic loci associated with typical AF. We sought to identify common genetic variants underlying lone AF. This condition affects a subset of individuals without overt heart disease and with an increased heritability of AF. We report a meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies conducted using 1,335 individuals with lone AF (cases) and 12,844 unaffected individuals (referents). Cases were obtained from the German AF Network, Heart and Vascular Health Study, the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study, the Cleveland Clinic and Massachusetts General Hospital. We identified an association on chromosome 1q21 to lone AF (rs13376333, adjusted odds ratio = 1.56; P = 6.3 × 10−12), and we replicated this association in two independent cohorts with lone AF (overall combined odds ratio = 1.52, 95% CI 1.40–1.64; P = 1.83 × 10−21). rs13376333 is intronic to KCNN3, which encodes a potassium channel protein involved in atrial repolarization.

Prevention of atrial fibrillation: report from a national heart, lung, and blood institute workshop.

The National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute convened an expert panel April 28 to 29, 2008, to identify gaps and recommend research strategies to prevent atrial fibrillation (AF). The panel reviewed the existing basic scientific, epidemiological, and clinical literature about AF and identified opportunities to advance AF prevention research. After discussion, the panel proposed the following recommendations: (1) enhance understanding of the epidemiology of AF in the population by systematically and longitudinally investigating symptomatic and asymptomatic AF in cohort studies; (2) improve detection of AF by evaluating the ability of existing and emerging methods and technologies to detect AF; (3) improve noninvasive modalities for identifying key components of cardiovascular remodeling that promote AF, including genetic, fibrotic, autonomic, structural, and electrical remodeling markers; (4) develop additional animal models reflective of the pathophysiology of human AF; (5) conduct secondary analyses of already-completed clinical trials to enhance knowledge of potentially effective methods to prevent AF and routinely include AF as an outcome in ongoing and future cardiovascular studies; and (6) conduct clinical studies focused on secondary prevention of AF recurrence, which would inform future primary prevention investigations.The National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute convened an expert panel April 28-29, 2008 to identify gaps and recommend research strategies to prevent atrial fibrillation (AF). The panel reviewed the existing basic scientific, epidemiologic and clinical literature about AF, and identified opportunities to advance AF prevention research. After discussion, the panel proposed the following recommendations: 1) Enhance understanding of the epidemiology of AF in the population by systematically and longitudinally investigating symptomatic and asymptomatic AF in cohort studies; 2) Improve detection of AF by evaluating the ability of existing and emerging methods and technologies to detect AF; 3) Improve noninvasive modalities for identifying key components of cardiovascular remodeling that promote AF, including genetic, fibrotic, autonomic, structural and electrical remodeling markers; 4) Develop additional animal models reflective of the pathophysiology of human AF; 5) Conduct secondary analyses of already-completed clinical trials to enhance knowledge of potentially effective methods to prevent AF and routinely include AF as an outcome in ongoing and future cardiovascular studies; and 6) Conduct clinical studies focused on secondary prevention of AF recurrence, which would inform future primary prevention investigations.

Meta-analysis identifies six new susceptibility loci for atrial fibrillation

Atrial fibrillation is a highly prevalent arrhythmia and a major risk factor for stroke, heart failure and death. We conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) in individuals of European ancestry, including 6,707 with and 52,426 without atrial fibrillation. Six new atrial fibrillation susceptibility loci were identified and replicated in an additional sample of individuals of European ancestry, including 5,381 subjects with and 10,030 subjects without atrial fibrillation (P < 5 × 10−8). Four of the loci identified in Europeans were further replicated in silico in a GWAS of Japanese individuals, including 843 individuals with and 3,350 individuals without atrial fibrillation. The identified loci implicate candidate genes that encode transcription factors related to cardiopulmonary development, cardiac-expressed ion channels and cell signaling molecules.

Observational studies analyzed like randomized experiments: an application to postmenopausal hormone therapy and coronary heart disease.

Background: The Womens Health Initiative randomized trial found greater coronary heart disease (CHD) risk in women assigned to estrogen/progestin therapy than in those assigned to placebo. Observational studies had previously suggested reduced CHD risk in hormone users. Methods: Using data from the observational Nurses’ Health Study, we emulated the design and intention-to-treat (ITT) analysis of the randomized trial. The observational study was conceptualized as a sequence of “trials,” in which eligible women were classified as initiators or noninitiators of estrogen/progestin therapy. Results: The ITT hazard ratios (HRs) (95% confidence intervals) of CHD for initiators versus noninitiators were 1.42 (0.92–2.20) for the first 2 years, and 0.96 (0.78–1.18) for the entire follow-up. The ITT HRs were 0.84 (0.61–1.14) in women within 10 years of menopause, and 1.12 (0.84–1.48) in the others (P value for interaction = 0.08). These ITT estimates are similar to those from the Womens Health Initiative. Because the ITT approach causes severe treatment misclassification, we also estimated adherence-adjusted effects by inverse probability weighting. The HRs were 1.61 (0.97–2.66) for the first 2 years, and 0.98 (0.66–1.49) for the entire follow-up. The HRs were 0.54 (0.19–1.51) in women within 10 years after menopause, and 1.20 (0.78–1.84) in others (P value for interaction = 0.01). We also present comparisons between these estimates and previously reported Nurses’ Health Study estimates. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that the discrepancies between the Womens Health Initiative and Nurses’ Health Study ITT estimates could be largely explained by differences in the distribution of time since menopause and length of follow-up.

Association of the Mediterranean Dietary Pattern With the Incidence of Depression: The Seguimiento Universidad de Navarra/University of Navarra Follow-up (SUN) Cohort

CONTEXT Adherence to the Mediterranean dietary pattern (MDP) is thought to reduce inflammatory, vascular, and metabolic processes that may be involved in the risk of clinical depression. OBJECTIVE To assess the association between adherence to the MDP and the incidence of clinical depression. DESIGN Prospective study that uses a validated 136-item food frequency questionnaire to assess adherence to the MDP. The MDP score positively weighted the consumption of vegetables, fruit and nuts, cereal, legumes, and fish; the monounsaturated- to saturated-fatty-acids ratio; and moderate alcohol consumption, whereas meat or meat products and whole-fat dairy were negatively weighted. SETTING A dynamic cohort of university graduates (Seguimiento Universidad de Navarra/University of Navarra Follow-up [SUN] Project). PARTICIPANTS A total of 10 094 initially healthy Spanish participants from the SUN Project participated in the study. Recruitment began on December 21, 1999, and is ongoing. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE Participants were classified as having incident depression if they were free of depression and antidepressant medication at baseline and reported a physician-made diagnosis of clinical depression and/or antidepressant medication use during follow-up. RESULTS After a median follow-up of 4.4 years, 480 new cases of depression were identified. The multiple adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) of depression for the 4 upper successive categories of adherence to the MDP (taking the category of lowest adherence as reference) were 0.74 (0.57-0.98), 0.66 (0.50-0.86), 0.49 (0.36-0.67), and 0.58 (0.44-0.77) (P for trend <.001). Inverse dose-response relationships were found for fruit and nuts, the monounsaturated- to saturated-fatty-acids ratio, and legumes. CONCLUSIONS Our results suggest a potential protective role of the MDP with regard to the prevention of depressive disorders; additional longitudinal studies and trials are needed to confirm these findings.

Genome-wide association study of PR interval

The electrocardiographic PR interval (or PQ interval) reflects atrial and atrioventricular nodal conduction, disturbances of which increase risk of atrial fibrillation. We report a meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies for PR interval from seven population-based European studies in the CHARGE Consortium: AGES, ARIC, CHS, FHS, KORA, Rotterdam Study, and SardiNIA (N = 28,517). We identified nine loci associated with PR interval at P < 5 × 10−8. At the 3p22.2 locus, we observed two independent associations in voltage-gated sodium channel genes, SCN10A and SCN5A. Six of the loci were near cardiac developmental genes, including CAV1-CAV2, NKX2-5 (CSX1), SOX5, WNT11, MEIS1, and TBX5-TBX3, providing pathophysiologically interesting candidate genes. Five of the loci, SCN5A, SCN10A, NKX2-5, CAV1-CAV2, and SOX5, were also associated with atrial fibrillation (N = 5,741 cases, P < 0.0056). This suggests a role for common variation in ion channel and developmental genes in atrial and atrioventricular conduction as well as in susceptibility to atrial fibrillation.