Alvaro Muñoz

New Equations to Estimate GFR in Children with CKD

The Schwartz formula was devised in the mid-1970s to estimate GFR in children. Recent data suggest that this formula currently overestimates GFR as measured by plasma disappearance of iohexol, likely a result of a change in methods used to measure creatinine. Here, we developed equations to estimate GFR using data from the baseline visits of 349 children (aged 1 to 16 yr) in the Chronic Kidney Disease in Children (CKiD) cohort. Median iohexol-GFR (iGFR) was 41.3 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) (interquartile range 32.0 to 51.7), and median serum creatinine was 1.3 mg/dl. We performed linear regression analyses assessing precision, goodness of fit, and accuracy to develop improvements in the GFR estimating formula, which was based on height, serum creatinine, cystatin C, blood urea nitrogen, and gender. The best equation was: GFR(ml/min per 1.73 m(2))=39.1[height (m)/Scr (mg/dl)](0.516) x [1.8/cystatin C (mg/L)](0.294)[30/BUN (mg/dl)](0.169)[1.099](male)[height (m)/1.4](0.188). This formula yielded 87.7% of estimated GFR within 30% of the iGFR, and 45.6% within 10%. In a test set of 168 CKiD patients at 1 yr of follow-up, this formula compared favorably with previously published estimating equations for children. Furthermore, with height measured in cm, a bedside calculation of 0.413*(height/serum creatinine), provides a good approximation to the estimated GFR formula. Additional studies of children with higher GFR are needed to validate these formulas for use in screening all children for CKD.

HIV-1, hepatitis B virus, and risk of liver-related mortality in the Multicenter Cohort Study (MACS)

BACKGROUND Although coinfection with HIV-1 and hepatitis B virus (HBV) is common, few long-term studies on liver-disease mortality in coinfected people have been undertaken. Our aim was to examine liver-related mortality among people at risk for HIV-1 and HBV infections. METHODS We used data from a multicentre, prospective cohort study to classify 5293 men who had sex with men, according to their HIV-1 antibody status, ascertained semiannually, and their hepatitis-B surface antigen status (HBsAg), which we ascertained at baseline. Mortality rates were estimated in terms of person-years and Poisson regression methods were used to test for significance of relative risks. FINDINGS 326 (6%) men were HBsAg positive, of whom 213 (65%) were HIV-1 positive. Of the 4967 HBsAg negative men, 2346 (47%) were infected with HIV-1. The liver-related mortality rate was 1.1/1000 person years, and was higher in men with HIV-1 and HBsAg (14.2/1000) than in those with only HIV-1 infection (1.7/1000, p<0.001) or only HBsAg (0.8/1000, p<0.001). In coinfected individuals, the liver-related mortality rate was highest with lower nadir CD4+ cell counts and was twice as high after 1996, when highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) was introduced. INTERPRETATION Individuals coinfected with HIV-1 and HBV, especially those with low CD4+ nadir counts, are at increased risk for liver-related mortality, underscoring the importance of prevention, identification, and comprehensive management of hepatitis B in people infected with HIV-1.

The Declining Risk of Post-Transfusion Hepatitis C Virus Infection

BACKGROUND The most common serious complication of blood transfusion is post-transfusion hepatitis from the hepatitis C virus (HCV). Blood banks now screen blood donors for surrogate markers of non-A, non-B hepatitis and antibodies to HCV, but the current risk of post-transfusion hepatitis C is unknown. METHODS From 1985 through 1991, blood samples and medical information were obtained prospectively from patients before and at least six months after cardiac surgery. The stored serum samples were tested for antibodies to HCV by enzyme immunoassay, and by recombinant immunoblotting if positive. RESULTS Of the 912 patients who received transfusions before donors were screened for surrogate markers, 35 seroconverted to HCV, for a risk of 3.84 percent per patient (0.45 percent per unit transfused). For the 976 patients who received transfusions after October 1986 with blood screened for surrogate markers, the risk of seroconversion was 1.54 percent per patient (0.19 percent per unit). For the 522 patients receiving transfusions since the addition in May 1990 of screening for antibodies to HCV, the risk was 0.57 percent per patient (0.03 percent per unit). The trend toward decreasing risk with increasingly stringent screening of donors was statistically significant (P less than 0.001). After we controlled for the method of donor screening, the risk of seroconversion was strongly associated (P less than 0.001) with the volume of blood transfused, but not with the use of particular blood components. CONCLUSIONS The incidence of post-transfusion hepatitis C has decreased markedly since the implementation of donor screening for surrogate markers and antibodies to HCV. The current risk of post-transfusion hepatitis is about 3 per 10,000 units transfused.

The Risk of Pneumocystis carinii Pneumonia among Men Infected with Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1

We assessed the risk of pneumonia due to Pneumocystis carinii in 1665 participants in the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study who were seropositive for human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) but did not have the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) and were not receiving prophylaxis against P. carinii. During 48 months of follow-up, 168 participants (10.1 percent) had a first episode of P. carinii pneumonia. The risk was greatly increased in participants with CD4+ cell counts at base line of 200 per cubic millimeter or less (relative risk, 4.9; 95 percent confidence interval, 3.1 to 8.0). Although most participants (60.7 percent) described no HIV-1-related symptoms at the clinic visit at which a CD4+ cell count of 200 per cubic millimeter or less was first noted, this finding during follow-up was also associated with an increased risk of P. carinii pneumonia. The development of thrush or fever significantly and independently increased the risk of P. carinii pneumonia in these patients (adjusted relative risks, 1.86 and 2.15 for thrush and fever, respectively). Most participants with CD4+ cell counts above 200 per cubic millimeter who had P. carinii pneumonia within six months were symptomatic. We conclude that P. carinii pneumonia is unlikely to develop in HIV-1-infected patients unless their CD4+ cells are depleted to 200 per cubic millimeter or below or the patients are symptomatic, and therefore that prophylaxis should be reserved for such patients.

Natural History of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 Viremia after Seroconversion and Proximal to AIDS in a Large Cohort of Homosexual Men

The natural history of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) viremia and its association with clinical outcomes after seroconversion was characterized in a cohort of homosexual men. HIV-1 RNA was measured by reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) in stored longitudinal plasma samples from 269 seroconverters. Subjects were generally antiretroviral drug naive for the first 3 years after seroconversion. The decline in CD4 lymphocyte counts was strongly associated with initial HIV RNA measurements. Both initial HIV RNA levels and slopes were associated with AIDS-free times. Median slopes were +0.18, +0.09, and -0.01 log10 copies/mL, respectively, for subjects developing AIDS <3, 3-7, and>7 years after seroconversion. In contrast, HIV RNA slopes in the 3 years preceding AIDS and HIV RNA levels at AIDS diagnosis showed little variation according to total AIDS-free time. HIV RNA load at the first HIV-seropositive visit ( approximately 3 months after seroconversion) was highly predictive of AIDS, and subsequent HIV RNA measurements showed even better prognostic discrimination.

Incidence, Duration, and Determinants of Cervical Human Papillomavirus Infection in a Cohort of Colombian Women with Normal Cytological Results

Data on the incidence and determinants of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection in women >30 years old are scarce. To address this, a cohort of 1610 women--15-85 years old, HPV negative, and with normal cytological results at baseline--was monitored every 6 months for an average of 4.1 years. Information on risk factors and cervical samples for cytological testing and detection and typing of HPV DNA were obtained at each visit. The incidence of high-risk types was higher than that of low-risk types (5.0 vs. 2.0 cases/100 woman-years). The age-specific incidence curve for high-risk types was bimodal, whereas the incidence of low-risk types gradually decreased with age. Infections with high-risk types lasted longer than infections with low-risk types (14.8 vs. 11.1 months). In this cohort of cytologically normal women, the incidence of cervical HPV infection was high, and the epidemiological profile of high-risk HPV types was different from that of low-risk types.

Longitudinal Study of the Effects of Maternal Smoking on Pulmonary Function in Children

We investigated the effects of maternal cigarette smoking on pulmonary function in a cohort of children and adolescents observed prospectively for seven years. A multivariate analysis revealed that after correction for previous forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1), age, height, change in height, and cigarette smoking in the child, or adolescent, maternal cigarette smoking significantly lowered the expected average annual increase in FEV1 (P = 0.015). On the basis of this analysis, it is estimated that if two children have the same initial FEV1, age, height, increase in height, and personal cigarette-smoking history, but the mother of one has smoked throughout the childs life whereas the mother of the other has not, the difference in the change in FEV1 over time in the exposed child, as compared with that in the unexposed child, will be approximately 28, 51, and 101 ml after one, two, and five years, respectively, or a reduction of 10.7, 9.5, and 7.0 per cent, respectively, in the expected increase. These results suggest that passive exposure to maternal cigarette smoke may have important effects on the development of pulmonary function in children.

Temporal trends in the incidence of HTV‐1‐related neurologic diseases Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study, 1985‐1992

OBJECTIVE To describe temporal trends in the incidence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-related neurologic diseases in the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study from 1985 to 1992. METHODS The incidence rates of six neurologic disorders were examined: toxoplasmosis, cryptococcal meningitis, primary CNS lymphoma, progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy, HIV dementia, and sensory neuropathy. Poisson modeling was used to test linear trends over time and the effects of progressive immunosuppression, antimicrobial prophylaxis, and antiretroviral drug therapy. RESULTS There was an upward temporal trend in all incidence rates, except for HIV dementia. Progressive immunosuppression in the cohort explained all calendar trends except for sensory neuropathy, where an increasing temporal trend remained even after adjusting for CD4+ cell count, and for HIV dementia where a slight decline was noted, although the effects were not statistically significant. We noted a protective trend of antimicrobial prophylaxis on toxoplasmosis and cryptococcal meningitis, but, in contrast, use of antiretroviral agents was not protective against HIV dementia. Men receiving didanosine, zalcitabine, or stavudine were more likely to develop sensory neuropathy. CONCLUSION Despite the earlier and more widespread use of antimicrobial and antiretroviral agents, neurologic conditions still occurred frequently in this cohort, with annual rates above 1.5 per 100 person-years for HIV dementia and sensory neuropathy. Sensory neuropathy seems to be increasing in incidence and HIV dementia declining slightly in this cohort. As the epidemic matures and more people with profound immunosuppression live longer, the overall incidence of HIV-related neurologic diseases can be expected to rise.Objective: To describe temporal trends in the incidence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-re-lated neurologic diseases in the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study from 1985 to 1992. Methods: The incidence rates of six neurologic disorders were examined: toxoplasmosis, cryptococcal meningitis, primary CNS lymphoma, progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy, HIV dementia, and sensory neuropathy. Poisson modeling was used to test linear trends over time and the effects of progressive immunosuppression, antimicrobial prophylaxis, and antiretroviral drug therapy. Results: There was an upward temporal trend in all incidence rates, except for HIV dementia. Progressive immunosuppression in the cohort explained all calendar trends except for sensory neuropathy, where an increasing temporal trend remained even after adjusting for CD4+ cell count, and for HIV dementia where a slight decline was noted, although the effects were not statistically significant. We noted a protective trend of antimicrobial prophylaxis on toxoplasmosis and cryptococcal meningitis, but, in contrast, use of antiretroviral agents was not protective against HIV dementia. Men receiving didanosine, zalcitabine, or stavudine were more likely to develop sensory neuropathy. Conclusion: Despite the earlier and more widespread use of antimicrobial and antiretroviral agents, neurologic conditions still occurred frequently in this cohort, with annual rates above 1.5 per 100 person-years for HIV dementia and sensory neuropathy. Sensory neuropathy seems to be increasing in incidence and HIV dementia declining slightly in this cohort. As the epidemic matures and more people with profound immunosuppression live longer, the overall incidence of HIV-related neurologic diseases can be expected to rise.

Association between highly active antiretroviral therapy and hypertension in a large cohort of men followed from 1984 to 2003

Objective:To examine the impact of HIV infection and highly active antiretroviral therapy on systolic and diastolic hypertension. Design:Cohort study with semi-annual assessment of the outcome. Methods:We studied 5578 participants of the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study with blood pressure measurements obtained between 1984 and 2003. The primary outcomes were systolic hypertension (SH; systolic blood pressure > 140 mmHg) and diastolic hypertension (DH; diastolic blood pressure > 90 mmHg). Statistical analyses were performed using multiple logistic regression with robust variance estimation. Results:Of the 84 813 person-visits available for analysis, 7.3 and 8.0% showed SH and DH, respectively. Controlling for age, race, body mass index, and smoking, HIV positive men not taking antiretroviral therapy were significantly less likely than HIV negative men to have SH [odds ratio (OR), 0.79; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.70–0.89], as were men taking mono/combination therapy (OR, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.59–0.80). The prevalence of SH among men taking highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) for less than 2 years was similar to that among HIV negative men (OR, 1.06; 95% CI, 0.87–1.30), but was significantly higher thereafter; for 2 to 5 years of HAART (OR, 1.51; 95% CI, 1.25–1.82) and for more than 5 years of HAART (OR, 1.70; 95% CI, 1.34–2.16). In contrast, DH was not significantly higher among men with prolonged HAART use compared to that among HIV negative controls. Conclusions:Prolonged HAART use was significantly associated with a higher prevalence of SH. This finding suggests that individuals taking HAART may be at increased risk of developing hypertension-related conditions and underscores the importance of blood pressure monitoring among these individuals.

Design and methods of the Chronic Kidney Disease in Children (CKiD) prospective cohort study.

An estimated 650,000 Americans will have ESRD by 2010. Young adults with kidney failure often develop progressive chronic kidney disease (CKD) in childhood and adolescence. The Chronic Kidney Disease in Children (CKiD) prospective cohort study of 540 children aged 1 to 16 yr and have estimated GFR between 30 and 75 ml/min per 1.73 m2 was established to identify novel risk factors for CKD progression; the impact of kidney function decline on growth, cognition, and behavior; and the evolution of cardiovascular disease risk factors. Annually, a physical examination documenting height, weight, Tanner stage, and standardized BP is conducted, and cognitive function, quality of life, nutritional, and behavioral questionnaires are completed by the parent or the child. Samples of serum, plasma, urine, hair, and fingernail clippings are stored in biosamples and genetics repositories. GFR is measured annually for 2 yr, then every other year using iohexol, HPLC creatinine, and cystatin C. Using age, gender, and serial measurements of Tanner stage, height, and creatinine, compared with iohexol GFR, a formula to estimate GFR that will improve on traditional pediatric GFR estimating equations when applied longitudinally is expected to be developed. Every other year, echocardiography and ambulatory BP monitoring will assess risk for cardiovascular disease. The primary outcome is the rate of decline of GFR. The CKiD study will be the largest North American multicenter study of pediatric CKD.