Amaia Iza

Career Planning in Spain: Do Fixed-term Contracts Delay Marriage and Parenthood?

Abstract.The aim of this paper is to find an empirical connection between the striking increase in the use of fixed-term contracts in Spain and the observed delay in the age at marriage and maternity. Using the eight waves of individual information from the European Household Panel for Spain, we find that for men, the decision whether to get married is strongly negatively affected by holding unstable contracts or not working, relative to when an indefinite contract is held. However, for women, results suggest that holding fixed-term contracts is not a deterrent for the decision whether to get married. With respect to the decision of whether to enter into parenthood, results indicate that for all childless women, either with no partner, holding fixed-term contracts delays entry into motherhood relative to the holding of indefinite contracts. The discouragement effect is stronger for women with no partner, though.

GROWTH IN AN OIL ABUNDANT ECONOMY: THE CASE OF VENEZUELA

Venezuelas growth experience over the 56–year period from 1950 to 2006 was characterized by a high economic growth rate from 1950 to 1974 and a low economic growth rate from 1974 to 2006. We show that the country has been immersed in a ‘great depression’ since the mid-seventies. We also show that although Venezuela is an oil abundant economy, this growth experience is largely due to the evolution of its non-oil GDP. We perform a growth accounting exercise to quantify the extent to which the growth experience in the non-oil sector is a result of physical capital accumulation, finding that non-oil sector behavior can largely be explained by the evolution of total factor productivity (TFP). Finally, we calculate the correlations between oil rents and physical capital accumulation and TFP in the non-oil sector, finding a high positive correlation during the good performance period, but a negative correlation in the implosion period.

Income Taxation and Finite Horizons in a Human Capital Model

We address the issue ofcapital vs. labor income taxation in an overlapping generationsmodel with a positive externality in the human capital production.We compare the performance of the economy in the steady stateunder different tax policies. Three results are obtained. First,the size of the tax revenue required strongly affects the optimal(welfare maximizing) capital-labor income tax portfolio. Inparticular, a zero physical capital income tax rate need notbe optimal. Second, the way in which the finite life cycle issplit between the working and the retirement period also matters.And third, the size of the externality in the human capital productionalso affects the optimal income tax rate mix.

Comprehensive income taxation, investments in human and physical capital, and productivity A note

Abstract We build up this short note on the Nerlove et al. (1993) paper published in this journal. We identify a computational error in that paper regarding the results on welfare analysis.

The Role of Productivity and Financial Frictions in the Business Cycles of a Small Open Economy: Hong Kong 1984–2011

This paper analyzes the business cycle properties of the Hong Kong economy during the 1984–2011 period, which includes the financial crisis experienced in 1997/98 and the economic crisis of 2008–2010. We show that the volatility respectively, of output, of the growth rate of output and of real interest rates in Hong Kong are higher than the corresponding average volatility among developed economies. Furthermore, interest rates are counter-cyclical. We build a stochastic neoclassical small open�?economy model estimated with a Bayesian likelihood approach that seeks to replicate the main business cycle characteristics of Hong Kong, and through which we try to quantify the role played by exogenous total factor productivity (TFP) shocks (transitory and permanent), real interest rate shocks and financial frictions. The main finding is that financial frictions, jointly with the assumption that the country spread is endogenous, seem important in explaining the counter-cyclicality of the real interest rates.