Amanda I. Adler

Association of glycaemia with macrovascular and microvascular complications of type 2 diabetes (UKPDS 35): prospective observational study

Abstract Objective: To determine the relation between exposure to glycaemia over time and the risk of macrovascular or microvascular complications in patients with type 2 diabetes. Design: Prospective observational study. Setting: 23 hospital based clinics in England, Scotland, and Northern Ireland. Participants: 4585 white, Asian Indian, and Afro-Caribbean UKPDS patients, whether randomised or not to treatment, were included in analyses of incidence; of these, 3642 were included in analyses of relative risk. Outcome measures: Primary predefined aggregate clinical outcomes: any end point or deaths related to diabetes and all cause mortality. Secondary aggregate outcomes: myocardial infarction, stroke, amputation (including death from peripheral vascular disease), and microvascular disease (predominantly retinal photo-coagulation). Single end points: non-fatal heart failure and cataract extraction. Risk reduction associated with a 1% reduction in updated mean HbA1c adjusted for possible confounders at diagnosis of diabetes. Results: The incidence of clinical complications was significantly associated with glycaemia. Each 1% reduction in updated mean HbA1c was associated with reductions in risk of 21% for any end point related to diabetes (95% confidence interval 17% to 24%, P<0.0001), 21% for deaths related to diabetes (15% to 27%, P<0.0001), 14% for myocardial infarction (8% to 21%, P<0.0001), and 37% for microvascular complications (33% to 41%, P<0.0001). No threshold of risk was observed for any end point. Conclusions: In patients with type 2 diabetes the risk of diabetic complications was strongly associated with previous hyperglycaemia. Any reduction in HbA1c is likely to reduce the risk of complications, with the lowest risk being in those with HbA1c values in the normal range (<6.0%).

Association of systolic blood pressure with macrovascular and microvascular complications of type 2 diabetes (UKPDS 36): prospective observational study

Abstract Objective: To determine the relation between systolic blood pressure over time and the risk of macrovascular or microvascular complications in patients with type 2 diabetes. Design: Prospective observational study. Setting: 23 hospital based clinics in England, Scotland, and Northern Ireland. Participants: 4801 white, Asian Indian, and Afro-Caribbean UKPDS patients, whether randomised or not to treatment, were included in analyses of incidence; of these, 3642 were included in analyses of relative risk. Outcome measures: Primary predefined aggregate clinical outcomes: any complications or deaths related to diabetes and all cause mortality. Secondary aggregate outcomes: myocardial infarction, stroke, lower extremity amputation (including death from peripheral vascular disease), and microvascular disease (predominantly retinal photocoagulation). Single end points: non-fatal heart failure and cataract extraction. Risk reduction associated with a 10 mm Hg decrease in updated mean systolic blood pressure adjusted for specific confounders Results: The incidence of clinical complications was significantly associated with systolic blood pressure, except for cataract extraction. Each 10 mm Hg decrease in updated mean systolic blood pressure was associated with reductions in risk of 12% for any complication related to diabetes (95% confidence interval 10% to 14%, P<0.0001), 15% for deaths related to diabetes (12% to 18%, P<0.0001), 11% for myocardial infarction (7% to 14%, P<0.0001), and 13% for microvascular complications (10% to 16%, P<0.0001). No threshold of risk was observed for any end point. Conclusions: In patients with type 2 diabetes the risk of diabetic complications was strongly associated with raised blood pressure. Any reduction in blood pressure is likely to reduce the risk of complications, with the lowest risk being in those with systolic blood pressure less than 120 mm Hg.

Risk Factors for Renal Dysfunction in Type 2 Diabetes U.K. Prospective Diabetes Study 74

Not all patients with type 2 diabetes develop renal dysfunction. Identifying those at risk is problematic because even microalbuminuria, often used clinically as an indicator of future renal dysfunction, does not always precede worsening renal function. We sought to identify clinical risk factors at diagnosis of type 2 diabetes associated with later development of renal dysfunction. Of 5,102 U.K. Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) participants, prospective analyses were undertaken in those without albuminuria (n = 4,031) or with normal plasma creatinine (n = 5,032) at diagnosis. Stepwise proportional hazards multivariate regression was used to assess association of putative baseline risk factors with subsequent development of albuminuria (microalbuminuria or macroalbuminuria) or renal impairment (Cockcroft-Gault estimated creatinine clearance <60 ml/min or doubling of plasma creatinine). Over a median of 15 years of follow-up 1,544 (38%) of 4,031 patients developed albuminuria and 1,449 (29%) of 5,032 developed renal impairment. Of 4,006 patients with the requisite data for both outcomes, 1,534 (38%) developed albuminuria and 1,132 (28%) developed renal impairment. Of the latter, 575 (51%) did not have preceding albuminuria. Development of albuminuria or renal impairment was independently associated with increased baseline systolic blood pressure, urinary albumin, plasma creatinine, and Indian-Asian ethnicity. Additional independent risk factors for albuminuria were male sex, increased waist circumference, plasma triglycerides, LDL cholesterol, HbA1c (A1C), increased white cell count, ever having smoked, and previous retinopathy. Additional independent risk factors for renal impairment were female sex, decreased waist circumference, age, increased insulin sensitivity, and previous sensory neuropathy. Over a median of 15 years from diagnosis of type 2 diabetes, nearly 40% of UKPDS patients developed albuminuria and nearly 30% developed renal impairment. Distinct sets of risk factors are associated with the development of these two outcomes, consistent with the concept that they are not linked inexorably in type 2 diabetes.

UKPDS 60: Risk of Stroke in Type 2 Diabetes Estimated by the UK Prospective Diabetes Study Risk Engine

Background and Purpose— People with type 2 diabetes are at elevated risk of stroke compared with those without diabetes. Relative risks have been examined in earlier work, but there is no readily available method for predicting the absolute risk of stroke in a diabetic individual. We developed mathematical models to estimate the risk of a first stroke using data from 4549 newly diagnosed type 2 diabetic patients enrolled in the UK Prospective Diabetes Study. Methods— During 30 700 person-years of follow-up, 188 first strokes (52 fatal) occurred. Model fitting was carried out by maximum likelihood estimation using the Newton-Raphson method. Diagnostic plots were used to compare survival probabilities calculated by the model with those calculated using nonparametric methods. Results— Variables included in the final model were duration of diabetes, age, sex, smoking, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio and presence of atrial fibrillation. Not included in the model were body mass index, hemoglobin A1c, ethnicity, and ex-smoking status. The use of the model is illustrated with a hypothetical study power calculation. Conclusions— This model forecasts the absolute risk of a first stroke in people with type 2 diabetes using variables readily available in routine clinical practice.

Cost effectiveness of an intensive blood glucose control policy in patients with type 2 diabetes: economic analysis alongside randomised controlled trial (UKPDS 41)

Abstract Objective: To estimate the cost effectiveness of conventional versus intensive blood glucose control in patients with type 2 diabetes. Design: Incremental cost effectiveness analysis alongside randomised controlled trial. Setting: 23 UK hospital clinic based study centres. Participants: 3867 patients with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes (mean age 53 years). Interventions: Conventional (primarily diet) glucose control policy versus intensive control policy with a sulphonylurea or insulin. Main outcome measures: Incremental cost per event-free year gained within the trial period. Results: Intensive glucose control increased trial treatment costs by £695 (95% confidence interval £555 to £836) per patient but reduced the cost of complications by £957 (£233 to £1681) compared with conventional management. If standard practice visit patterns were assumed rather than trial conditions, the incremental cost of intensive management was £478 (-£275 to £1232) per patient. The within trial event-free time gained in the intensive group was 0.60 (0.12 to 1.10) years and the lifetime gain 1.14 (0.69 to 1.61) years. The incremental cost per event-free year gained was £1166 (costs and effects discounted at 6% a year) and £563 (costs discounted at 6% a year and effects not discounted). Conclusions: Intensive blood glucose control in patients with type 2 diabetes significantly increased treatment costs but substantially reduced the cost of complications and increased the time free of complications.

Risk Factors for Diabetic Peripheral Sensory Neuropathy Results of the Seattle Prospective Diabetic Foot Study

OBJECTIVE To identify risk factors for diabetic lower-extremity peripheral sensory neuropathy prospectively in a cohort of U.S. veterans with diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS General medicine clinic outpatients with diabetes were followed prospectively for the development of insensitivity to the 5.07 monofilament on the foot. RESULTS Of 775 subjects, 388 (50%) had neuropathy at baseline. Of the 387 subjects without neuropathy at baseline, 288 were followed up, and of these, 58 (20%) developed neuropathy. Multivariate logistic regression modeling of prevalent neuropathy controlling for sex and race revealed independent and significant associations with age, duration of diabetes, glycohemoglobin level, height, history of lower-extremity ulceration, callus, and edema; an independent and inverse correlation was noted with ankle-arm index. Risk factors for incident neuropathy in multivariate logistic regression included age, baseline glycohemoglobin level, height, history of ulcer, and CAGE screening instrument alcohol score; current smoking and albumin level were inversely associated with risk. CONCLUSIONS Poorer glycemic control increases the risk of neuropathy and is amenable to intervention. Height and age directly increase risk of neuropathy and may help identify patients at risk. A proportion of neuropathy in diabetic veterans is probably due to or worsened by alcohol ingestion. Neuropathy was less common in current smokers than subjects not currently smoking.

Diabetes as a Determinant of Mortality in Cystic Fibrosis

OBJECTIVE Diabetes is increasingly common in cystic fibrosis, but little information describing its influence on mortality exists. Using national U.K. data, in this study we document diabetes-specific mortality rates, estimate the impact of diabetes on survival, and estimate population-attributable fractions. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS This retrospective cohort study identified 8,029 individuals aged 0–65 years from the U.K. Cystic Fibrosis Registry (1996–2005). A total of 5,892 patients were included in analyses of mortality rates, and 4,234 were included in analyses of risk factors. We calculated age-adjusted mortality rates using Poisson regression, standardized mortality ratios using the population of England and Wales, and relative risks using proportional hazards modeling. RESULTS During 17,672 person-years of follow-up, 393 subjects died. The age-adjusted mortality rate was 1.8 per 100 person-years (95% CI 1.6–2.0). The age-adjusted mortality rates per 100 person-years were 2.0 (1.8–2.4) in female subjects and 1.6 (1.4–1.9) in male subjects, and 4.2 (3.4–5.1) in individuals with diabetes vs. 1.5 (1.3–1.7) in those without diabetes. Independent risk factors for death included diabetes (hazard ratio 1.31 [95% CI 1.03–1.67], female sex (1.71 [1.36–2.14]) plus poorer pulmonary function, lower BMI, Burkholderia cepacia infection, absence of Staphylococcus aureus infection, allergic bronchopulmonary aspergillosis, liver disease, prior organ transplantation, and corticosteroid use. CONCLUSIONS Individuals with cystic fibrosis die earlier if they have diabetes, which, if delayed or better treated, might reasonably extend survival; this hypothesis merits testing.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of intensive blood-glucose control with metformin in overweight patients with Type II diabetes (UKPDS No. 51)

Aims/hypothesis. To estimate the economic efficiency of intensive blood-glucose control with metformin compared with conventional therapy primarily with diet in overweight patients with Type II (non-insulin-dependent) diabetes mellitus. Methods. Cost-effectiveness analysis based on patient level data from a randomised clinical controlled trial involving 753 overweight ( > 120 % ideal body weight) patients with newly diagnosed Type II diabetes conducted in 15 hospital-based clinics in England, Scotland and Northern Ireland as part of the UK Prospective Diabetes Study. Subjects were allocated at random to an intensive blood-glucose control policy with metformin (n = 342) or a conventional policy primarily with diet (n = 411). The analysis was based on the cost of health care resources associated with metformin and conventional therapy and the estimated effectiveness in terms of life expectancy gained from within-trial effects. Results. Intensive blood-glucose control with metformin produced a net saving of £ 258 per patient (1997 United Kingdom prices) over the trial period (median duration of 10.7 years) due to lower complication costs, and increased life expectancy by 0.4 years (costs and benefits discounted at 6 %). Conclusions/interpretation. As metformin is both cost-saving in the United Kingdom and extends life expectancy when used as first line pharmacological therapy in overweight Type II diabetic patients, its use should be attractive to clinicians and health care managers alike. [Diabetologia (2001) 44: 298–304]

Diabetic kidney disease: A clinical update from Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes

The incidence and prevalence of diabetes mellitus (DM) continue to grow dramatically throughout the world, due primarily to the increase in type 2 DM (T2DM). Although improvements in DM and hypertension management have reduced the proportion of diabetic individuals who develop chronic kidney disease (CKD) and progress to end-stage renal disease (ESRD), the sheer increase in people developing DM will have a major impact on dialysis and transplant needs. This KDIGO conference addressed a number of controversial areas in the management of DM patients with CKD, including aspects of screening for CKD with measurements of albuminuria and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR); defining treatment outcomes; glycemic management in both those developing CKD and those with ESRD; hypertension goals and management, including blockers of the renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system; and lipid management.

Genetic Determinants and Epidemiology of Cystic Fibrosis–Related Diabetes: Results from a British cohort of children and adults

OBJECTIVE—Longer survival of patients with cystic fibrosis has increased the occurrence of cystic fibrosis–related diabetes (CFRD). In this study we documented the incidence of CFRD and evaluated the association between mutations responsible for cystic fibrosis and incident CFRD, while identifying potential risk factors. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS—This was a population-based longitudinal study of 50 cystic fibrosis speciality clinics in the U.K. Subjects included 8,029 individuals aged 0–64 years enrolled in the U.K. Cystic Fibrosis Registry during 1996–2005. Of these, 5,196 with data and without diabetes were included in analyses of incidence, and 3,275 with complete data were included in analyses of risk factors. Diabetes was defined by physician diagnosis, oral glucose tolerance testing, or treatment with hypoglycemic drugs. RESULTS—A total of 526 individuals developed CFRD over 15,010 person-years. The annual incidence was 3.5%. The incidence was higher in female patients and in patients with mutations in the cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator (CFTR) gene in classes I and II. In a multivariate model of 377 cases of 3,275 patients, CFTR class (relative risk 1.70 [95% CI 1.16–2.49], class I or II versus others), increasing age, female sex, worse pulmonary function, liver dysfunction, pancreatic insufficiency, and corticosteroid use were independently associated with incident diabetes. CONCLUSIONS—The incidence of CFRD is high in Britain. CFTR class I and II mutations increase the risk of diabetes independent of other risk factors including pancreatic exocrine dysfunction.