Amanda Mocroft

Changing patterns of mortality across Europe in patients infected with HIV-1

BACKGROUND The introduction of combination antiretroviral therapy and protease inhibitors has led to reports of falling mortality rates among people infected with HIV-1. We examined the change in these mortality rates of HIV-1-infected patients across Europe during 1994-98, and assessed the extent to which changes can be explained by the use of new therapeutic regimens. METHODS We analysed data from EuroSIDA, which is a prospective, observational, European, multicentre cohort of 4270 HIV-1-infected patients. We compared death rates in each 6 month period from September, 1994, to March, 1998. FINDINGS By March, 1998, 1215 patients had died. The mortality rate from March to September, 1995, was 23.3 deaths per 100 person-years of follow-up (95% CI 20.6-26.0), and fell to 4.1 per 100 person-years of follow-up (2.3-5.9) between September, 1997, and March, 1998. From March to September, 1997, the death rate was 65.4 per 100 person-years of follow-up for those on no treatment, 7.5 per 100 person-years of follow-up for patients on dual therapy, and 3.4 per 100 person-years of follow-up for patients on triple-combination therapy. Compared with patients who were followed up from September, 1994, to March, 1995, patients seen between September, 1997, and March, 1998, had a relative hazard of death of 0.16 (0.08-0.32), which rose to 0.90 (0.50-1.64) after adjustment for treatment. INTERPRETATION Death rates across Europe among patients infected with HIV-1 have been falling since September, 1995, and at the beginning of 1998 were less than a fifth of their previous level. A large proportion of the reduction in mortality could be explained by new treatments or combinations of treatments.

Life expectancy of individuals on combination antiretroviral therapy in high-income countries: a collaborative analysis of 14 cohort studies

BACKGROUND Combination antiretroviral therapy has led to significant increases in survival and quality of life, but at a population-level the effect on life expectancy is not well understood. Our objective was to compare changes in mortality and life expectancy among HIV-positive individuals on combination antiretroviral therapy. METHODS The Antiretroviral Therapy Cohort Collaboration is a multinational collaboration of HIV cohort studies in Europe and North America. Patients were included in this analysis if they were aged 16 years or over and antiretroviral-naive when initiating combination therapy. We constructed abridged life tables to estimate life expectancies for individuals on combination antiretroviral therapy in 1996-99, 2000-02, and 2003-05, and stratified by sex, baseline CD4 cell count, and history of injecting drug use. The average number of years remaining to be lived by those treated with combination antiretroviral therapy at 20 and 35 years of age was estimated. Potential years of life lost from 20 to 64 years of age and crude mortality rates were also calculated. FINDINGS 18 587, 13 914, and 10 854 eligible patients initiated combination antiretroviral therapy in 1996-99, 2000-02, and 2003-05, respectively. 2056 (4.7%) deaths were observed during the study period, with crude mortality rates decreasing from 16.3 deaths per 1000 person-years in 1996-99 to 10.0 deaths per 1000 person-years in 2003-05. Potential years of life lost per 1000 person-years also decreased over the same time, from 366 to 189 years. Life expectancy at age 20 years increased from 36.1 (SE 0.6) years to 49.4 (0.5) years. Women had higher life expectancies than did men. Patients with presumed transmission via injecting drug use had lower life expectancies than did those from other transmission groups (32.6 [1.1] years vs 44.7 [0.3] years in 2003-05). Life expectancy was lower in patients with lower baseline CD4 cell counts than in those with higher baseline counts (32.4 [1.1] years for CD4 cell counts below 100 cells per muL vs 50.4 [0.4] years for counts of 200 cells per muL or more). INTERPRETATION Life expectancy in HIV-infected patients treated with combination antiretroviral therapy increased between 1996 and 2005, although there is considerable variability between subgroups of patients. The average number of years remaining to be lived at age 20 years was about two-thirds of that in the general population in these countries.

Risk of lipodystrophy in HIV-1-infected patients treated with protease inhibitors: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND Risk factors for lipodystrophy in patients infected with HIV-1 treated with highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) containing HIV-1 protease inhibitors are poorly understood. We aimed to identify the risk factors for lipodystrophy in antiretroviral-naive HIV-1-infected adults on HAART. METHODS Moderate or severe body-fat changes were clinically assessed and categorised as subcutaneous lipoatrophy, central obesity, or both, in all consecutive antiretroviral-naïve HIV-1-infected adults who began HAART with two nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors plus at least one protease inhibitor from October, 1996, to September, 1999. A person-years analysis was used to calculate the incidence of types of lipodystrophy, and Cox proportional hazards models were used to describe the univariate and multivariate factors associated with progression to any lipodystrophy. FINDINGS After a median follow-up of 18 months, 85 (17%) of the 494 patients developed some type of lipodystrophy. The incidences of any lipodystrophy, lipodystrophy with subcutaneous lipoatrophy, and lipodystrophy with central obesity were 11.7 (95% CI 9.2-14.2), 9.2 (7.0-11.4), and 7.7 (5.7-9.7) per 100 patient-years. An increased risk for any lipodystrophy was found among women as compared with men (relative hazard 1.87 [1.07-3.28]), heterosexuals (2.86 [1.50-5.48]), and homosexuals (2.17 [1.07-4.42]) as compared with intravenous drug users, with increasing age (1.33 per 10 years older [1.08-1.62]), and with the duration of exposure to antiretroviral therapy (1.57 per 6 months extra [1.30-1.88]) but not with any individual antiretroviral agent. The factors associated with an increased risk for lipodystrophy with subcutaneous lipoatrophy or lipodystrophy with central obesity were very similar to those associated with any lipodystrophy. The duration of indinavir use may represent an additional contribution for the development of lipodystrophy with central obesity (1.26 per 6 months extra [0.99-1.60]); p=0.064). INTERPRETATION Risk factors associated with development of any lipodystrophy, lipodystrophy with subcutaneous lipoatrophy, and tipodystrophy with central obesity in patients infected with HIV-1 who were receiving HAART containing protease inhibitors are multifactorial and overlapping, and cannot be exclusively ascribed to the duration of exposure to an particular antiretroviral agent.

Hepatitis B and HIV: prevalence, AIDS progression, response to highly active antiretroviral therapy and increased mortality in the EuroSIDA cohort

Background: Whether hepatitis B (HBV) coinfection affects outcome in HIV-1-infected patients remains unclear. Objective: To assess the prevalence of HBV (assessed as HBsAg) coinfection and its possible impact on progression to AIDS, all-cause deaths, liver-related deaths and response to highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in the EuroSIDA cohort. Methods: Data on 9802 patients in 72 European HIV centres were analysed. Incidence rates of AIDS, global mortality and liver-related mortality, time to 25% CD4 cell count increase and time to viral load < 400 copies/ml after starting HAART were calculated and compared between HBsAg-positive and HBsAg-negative patients. Results: HBsAg was found in 498 (8.7%) patients. The incidence of new AIDS diagnosis was similar in HBsAg-positive and HBsAg-negative patients (3.3 and 3.4/100 person-years, respectively) even after adjustment for potential confounders: the incidence rate ratio (IRR) was 0.94 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.74–1.19; P = 0.61]. The incidences of all-cause and liver-related mortalities were significantly higher in HBsAg-positive subjects (3.7 and 0.7/100 person-years, respectively) compared with HBsAg-negative subjects (2.6 and 0.2/100 person-years, respectively). The adjusted IRR values were 1.53 for global (95% CI, 1.23–1.90; P = 0.0001) and 3.58 for liver-related (95% CI, 2.09–6.16; P < 0.0001) mortality. HBsAg status did not influence viral or immunological responses among the 1679 patients starting HAART. Conclusions: The prevalence of HBV coinfection was 9% in the EuroSIDA cohort. Chronic HBV infection significantly increased liver-related mortality in HIV-1-infected patients but did not impact on progression to AIDS or on viral and immunological responses to HAART.

AIDS across Europe, 1994–98: the EuroSIDA study

BACKGROUND The clinical presentation of HIV-1 related diseases could have changed after the introduction of highly active antiretroviral treatment (HAART). We aimed to assess changes over time in the incidence of ADIs overall and within CD4 lymphocyte count strata, the relationship with treatment and degree of immunodeficiency at diagnosis of ADIs. METHODS We did a prospective observational multicentre study of over 7300 patients in 52 European HIV-1 outpatient clinics. Incidence rates per 100 patient-years of observation were calculated. FINDINGS In total, we recorded 1667 new ADIs; the incidence of ADIs declined from 30.7 per 100 patient-years of observation during 1994 (95% CI 28.0-33.4) to 2.5 per 100 patient-years of observation during 1998 (95% CI 2.0-3.0, p<0.0001, test for trend). Median CD4 lymphocyte count at diagnosis of a new ADI increased from 28 cells/microL to 125 cells/microL between 1994 and 1998 (p<0.0001), yet a steep decline in the rate of ADIs was seen after stratification by latest CD4 lymphocyte count within each year (< or = 50, 51-200, and > 200 cells/microL). Patients on HAART had a lower rate of ADIs than patients not on this treatment within each CD4 lymphocyte count strata. The proportion of ADIs attributable to cytomegalovirus retinitis and Mycobacterium avium complex declined over time (p=0.0058 and 0.0022, respectively), whereas the proportion of diagnoses attributable to non-Hodgkin lymphoma has increased (p<0.0001). In 1994, less than 4% of ADIs were non-Hodgkin lymphoma, in 1998 the proportion was almost 16%. This condition has become one of the most common ADIs in patients on HAART. INTERPRETATION Our findings lend support to the idea that treatment regimens can lower the incidence of ADIs. The immediate risk of an ADI for a given CD4 lymphocyte count has declined over time and is lower among patients on HAART. Long-term follow-up of patients on combination treatment is essential to monitor the incidence of new and emerging diagnoses.

Causes of death in HIV-1-infected patients treated with antiretroviral therapy, 1996-2006: collaborative analysis of 13 HIV cohort studies

BACKGROUND We examined specific causes of mortality in human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1)-infected patients who initiated antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Europe and North America from 1996 through 2006, and we quantified associations of prognostic factors with cause-specific mortality. METHODS We retrospectively classified all deaths among 39,272 patients enrolled in 13 HIV-1 cohorts (154,667 person years of follow-up) into the categories specified in the Cause of Death (CoDe) project protocol. RESULTS In 1597 (85%) of 1876 deaths, a definitive cause of death could be assigned. Among these, 792 deaths (49.5%) were AIDS related, followed by non-AIDS malignancies (189; 11.8%), non-AIDS infections (131; 8.2%), violence- and/or drug-related causes (124; 7.7%), liver disease (113; 7.0%), and cardiovascular disease (103; 6.5%). Rates of AIDS-related death (hazard ratio [HR] per 100 cell decrease, 1.43; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.34-1.53) and death from renal failure (HR, 1.73; 95% CI, 1.18-2.55) were strongly inversely related to CD4 count at initiation of ART, whereas rates of death attributable to AIDS (HR for viral load >5 vs 5 log copies/mL, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.12-1.53), infection (HR, 1.85; 95% CI, 1.25-2.73), cardiovascular (HR, 1.54; 95% CI, 1.05-2.27), and respiratory causes (HR, 3.62; 95% CI, 1.30-10.09) were higher in patients with baseline viral load >5 log copies/mL than in other patients. Rates of each cause of death were higher in patients with presumed transmission via injection drug use than in other patients, with marked increases in rates of liver-related (HR for injection drug use vs non-injection drug use, 6.06; 95% CI, 4.03-9.09) and respiratory tract-related (HR, 4.94; 95% CI, 1.96-12.45) mortality. The proportion of deaths classified as AIDS related decreased with increasing duration of ART. CONCLUSIONS Important contributors to non-AIDS mortality in treated HIV-1-infected individuals must be addressed if decreases in mortality rates are to continue.

Hepatotoxicity in HIV-1-infected patients receiving nevirapine-containing antiretroviral therapy

ObjectivesTo assess the incidence and risk factors for hepatotoxicity associated with nevirapine. DesignA prospective cohort study in a teaching and referral hospital involving all consecutive patients who were prescribed a nevirapine-containing antiretroviral regimen between September 1997 and May 2000. MethodCutaneous and hepatic adverse reactions and clinical hepatitis were assessed. Blood analysis including plasma HIV-1 RNA CD4 cell counts, liver chemistry tests, and serology for hepatitis B and C viruses. Hepatotoxicity was defined as an increase of at least threefold in serum alanine aminotransferase or aspartate aminotransferase levels compared with baseline values. ResultsOf a total of 610 patients, 82 (13.4%) were antiretroviral naive when commencing nevirapine, and 46.2 and 8.9% were coinfected with hepatitis C and B viruses, respectively. Median duration of exposure to nevirapine was 8.7 months (interquartile range 3.4–14.3). Hepatotoxicity developed in 76 (12.5%), an incidence of 13.1/100 person-years. Kaplan–Meier estimated incidence of hepatotoxicity at 3, 6 and 12 months was 3.7, 9.7 and 20.1%, respectively. In seven (1.1%) patients, hepatotoxicity was associated with clinical hepatitis, which was reversible upon discontinuation of therapy. Multivariate analysis identified the duration of prior exposure to antiretroviral drugs, hepatitis C virus, and higher baseline levels of alanine aminotransferase as independent risk factors for hepatotoxicity. ConclusionsHepatotoxicity but not clinical hepatitis was common in HIV-1-infected patients receiving nevirapine-containing regimens and the incidence steadily increased over time. Prolonged exposure to any antiretroviral therapy, coinfection with hepatitis C virus and abnormal baseline levels of alanine aminotransferase identified patients at a higher risk.

Influence of Hepatitis C Virus Infection on HIV-1 Disease Progression and Response to Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy

OBJECTIVE To assess hepatitis C virus (HCV) antibody prevalence in the EuroSIDA cohort, along with survival, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-1 disease progression, virologic response (plasma HIV-1 RNA load of < 500 copies/mL), and CD4 cell count recovery by HCV serostatus in patients initiating highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). RESULTS HCV serostatus at or before enrollment was available for 5957 patients; 1960 (33%) and 3997 (67%) were HCV seropositive and seronegative, respectively. No association between an increased incidence of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome-defining illnesses or death and HCV serostatus was seen after adjustment for other prognostic risk factors known at baseline (adjusted incidence rate ratio [IRR], 0.97 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 0.81-1.16]). However, there was a large increase in the incidence of liver disease-related deaths in HCV-seropositive patients in adjusted models (IRR, 11.71 [95% CI, 6.42-21.34]). Among 2260 patients of known HCV serostatus initiating HAART, after adjustment, there was no significant difference between HCV-seropositive and -seronegative patients with respect to virologic response (relative hazard [RH], 1.13 [95% CI, 0.84-1.51]) and immunologic response, whether measured as a > or = 50% increase (RH, 0.94 [95% CI, 0.77-1.16]) or a > or = 50 cells/microL increase (RH, 0.92 [95% CI, 0.77-1.11]) in CD4 cell count after HAART initiation. CONCLUSIONS HCV serostatus did not affect the risk of HIV-1 disease progression, but the risk of liver disease-related deaths was markedly increased in HCV-seropositive patients. The overall virologic and immunologic responses to HAART were not affected by HCV serostatus.

Anaemia is an independent predictive marker for clinical prognosis in HIV-infected patients from across Europe

OBJECTIVES To describe changes in haemoglobin over time and to determine the joint prognostic value of the current haemoglobin, CD4 lymphocyte count and viral load among patients from across Europe. PATIENTS The analysis included 6725 patients from EuroSIDA, an observational, prospective cohort of patients with HIV from across Europe. METHODS Normal haemoglobin was defined as haemoglobin greater than 14 g/dl for men and 12 g/dl for women; mild anaemia was 8-14 g/dl for men and 8-12 g/dl for women; severe anaemia was defined as less than 8 g/dl for both males and females. Linear regression techniques were used to estimate the annual change in haemoglobin; standard survival techniques were used to describe disease progression and risk of death. RESULTS At recruitment to the study, 40.4% had normal levels of haemoglobin, 58.2% had mild anaemia and 1.4% had severe anaemia. At 12 months after recruitment, the proportion of patients estimated to have died was 3.1% [95% confidence interval (CI) 2.3-3.9] for patients without anaemia, 15.9% for patients with mild anaemia (95% CI 14.5-17.2) and 40.8% for patients with severe anaemia (95% CI 27.9-53.6; P < 0.0001). In a multivariate, time-updated Cox proportional hazards model, adjusted for demographic factors, AIDS status and each antiretroviral treatment as time-dependent covariates, a 1 g/dl decrease in the latest haemoglobin level increased the hazard of death by 57% [relative hazard (RH) 1.57; 95% CI 1.41-1.75; P < 0.0001], a 50% drop in the most recent CD4 lymphocyte count increased the hazard by 51% (RH 1.51; 95% CI 1.35-1.70; P < 0.0001) and a log increase in the latest viral load increased the hazard by 37% (RH 1.37; 95% CI 1.15-1.63; P = 0.0005). CONCLUSIONS Severe anaemia occurred infrequently among these patients but was associated with a much faster rate of disease progression. Among patients with similar CD4 lymphocyte counts and viral load, the latest value of haemoglobin was a strong independent prognostic marker for death.

Estimated glomerular filtration rate, chronic kidney disease and antiretroviral drug use in HIV-positive patients.

Objectives:Chronic kidney disease (CKD) in HIV-positive persons might be caused by both HIV and traditional or non-HIV-related factors. Our objective was to investigate long-term exposure to specific antiretroviral drugs and CKD. Design:A cohort study including 6843 HIV-positive persons with at least three serum creatinine measurements and corresponding body weight measurements from 2004 onwards. Methods:CKD was defined as either confirmed (two measurements ≥3 months apart) estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of 60 ml/min per 1.73 m2 or below for persons with baseline eGFR of above 60 ml/min per 1.73 m2 or confirmed 25% decline in eGFR for persons with baseline eGFR of 60 ml/min per 1.73 m2 or less, using the Cockcroft–Gault formula. Poisson regression was used to determine factors associated with CKD. Results:Two hundred and twenty-five (3.3%) persons progressed to CKD during 21 482 person-years follow-up, an incidence of 1.05 per 100 person-years follow-up [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.91–1.18]; median follow-up was 3.7 years (interquartile range 2.8–5.7). After adjustment for traditional factors associated with CKD and other confounding variables, increasing cumulative exposure to tenofovir [incidence rate ratio (IRR) per year 1.16, 95% CI 1.06–1.25, P < 0.0001), indinavir (IRR 1.12, 95% CI 1.06–1.18, P < 0.0001), atazanavir (IRR 1.21, 95% CI 1.09–1.34, P = 0.0003) and lopinavir/r (IRR 1.08, 95% CI 1.01–1.16, P = 0.030) were associated with a significantly increased rate of CKD. Consistent results were observed in wide-ranging sensitivity analyses, although of marginal statistical significance for lopinavir/r. No other antiretroviral dugs were associated with increased incidence of CKD. Conclusion:In this nonrandomized large cohort, increasing exposure to tenofovir was associated with a higher incidence of CKD, as was true for indinavir and atazanavir, whereas the results for lopinavir/r were less clear.