Amber Jeanine Soja

The effects of climate, permafrost and fire on vegetation change in Siberia in a changing climate

Observations and general circulation model projections suggest significant temperature increases in Siberia this century that are expected to have profound effects on Siberian vegetation. Potential vegetation change across Siberia was modeled, coupling our Siberian BioClimatic Model with several Hadley Centre climate change scenarios for 2020, 2050 and 2080, with explicit consideration of permafrost and fire activity. In the warmer and drier climate projected by these scenarios, Siberian forests are predicted to decrease and shift northwards and forest?steppe and steppe ecosystems are predicted to dominate over half of Siberia due to the dryer climate by 2080. Despite the large predicted increases in warming, permafrost is not predicted to thaw deep enough to sustain dark (Pinus sibirica, Abies sibirica, and Picea obovata) taiga. Over eastern Siberia, larch (Larix dahurica) taiga is predicted to continue to be the dominant zonobiome because of its ability to withstand continuous permafrost. The model also predicts new temperate broadleaf forest and forest?steppe habitats by 2080. Potential fire danger evaluated with the annual number of high fire danger days (Nesterov index is 4000?10?000) is predicted to increase by 2080, especially in southern Siberia and central Yakutia. In a warming climate, fuel load accumulated due to replacement of forest by steppe together with frequent fire weather promotes high risks of large fires in southern Siberia and central Yakutia, where wild fires would create habitats for grasslands because the drier climate would no longer be suitable for forests.

Intercomparison of near-real-time biomass burning emissions estimates constrained by satellite fire data

We compare biomass burning emissions estimates from four different techniques that use satellite based fire products to determine area burned over regional to global domains. Three of the techniques use active fire detections from polar-orbiting MODIS sensors and one uses detections and instantaneous fire size estimates from geostationary GOES sensors. Each technique uses a different approach for estimating trace gas and particulate emissions from active fires. Here we evaluate monthly area burned and CO emission estimates for most of 2006 over the contiguous United States domain common to all four techniques. Two techniques provide global estimates and these are also compared. Overall we find consistency in temporal evolution and spatial patterns but differences in these monthly estimates can be as large as a factor of 10. One set of emission estimates is evaluated by comparing model CO predictions with satellite observations over regions where biomass burning is significant. These emissions are consistent with observations over the US but have a high bias in three out of four regions of large tropical burning. The large-scale evaluations of the magnitudes and characteristics of the differences presented here are a necessary first step toward an ultimate goal of reducing the large uncertainties in biomass burning emission estimates, thereby enhancing environmental monitoring and prediction capabilities.

Assessing Satellite-Based Fire Data for use in the National Emissions Inventory

Biomass burning is significant to emission estimates because: (1) it is a major contributor of particulate matter and other pollutants; (2) it is one of the most poorly documented of all sources; (3) it can adversely affect human health; and (4) it has been identified as a significant contributor to climate change through feedbacks with the radiation budget. Additionally, biomass burning can be a significant contributor to a regions inability to achieve the National Ambient Air Quality Standards for PM 2.5 and ozone, particularly on the top 20% worst air quality days. The United States does not have a standard methodology to track fire occurrence or area burned, which are essential components to estimating fire emissions. Satellite imagery is available almost instantaneously and has great potential to enhance emission estimates and their timeliness. This investigation compares satellite-derived fire data to ground-based data to assign statistical error and helps provide confidence in these data. The largest fires are identified by all satellites and their spatial domain is accurately sensed. MODIS provides enhanced spatial and temporal information, and GOES ABBA data are able to capture more small agricultural fires. A methodology is presented that combines these satellite data in Near-Real-Time to produce a product that captures 81 to 92% of the total area burned by wildfire, prescribed, agricultural and rangeland burning. Each satellite possesses distinct temporal and spatial capabilities that permit the detection of unique fires that could be omitted if using data from only one satellite.

The frequency of forest fires in Scots pine stands of Tuva, Russia

Forest fires resulting from long periods of drought cause extensive forest ecosystem destruction and can impact on the carbon balance and air quality and feed back to the climate system, regionally and globally. Past fire frequency is reconstructed for Tuvan Scots pine stands using dendrochronology and statistics. Central Tuvan Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) stands are subject to annual fire regimes; however high intensity fires are rare but they are responsible for most of the damage. Low, medium, and high severity fires have shaped the multi-story Scots pine communities, locally and regionally. Fire type and frequency are directly related to weather and climate and are also dependent on anthropogenic influences. The primary dry period, which promotes fire ignition and spread, in Tuva occurs in April and May. In some years, the precipitation deficit combined with high air temperatures induces long periods of drought. Unlike the typical surface fire regime, forest fires that burn during these extreme droughts often become crown fires that result in substantial forest damage and carbon release. The mean fire interval (MFI) is found to be 10.4 years in Balgazyn stands, and the landscape-scale MFI is 22.4 years. High severity, stand-replacing crown fires have a longer MFI. The warmer and dryer weather that is predicted by global climate models is evident in Tuva, and we believe that these changes in weather and climate have resulted in increased fire intensity and severity, rather than fire frequency in the Tuvan region.

Terrestrial ecosystems and their change

This chapter considers the current state of Siberian terrestrial ecosystems, their spatial distribution, and major biometric characteristics. Ongoing climate change and the dramatic increase of accompanying anthropogenic pressure provide different but mostly negative impacts on Siberian ecosystems. Future climates of the region may lead to substantial drying on large territories, acceleration of disturbance regimes, deterioration of ecosystems, and positive feedback to global warming. The region requires urgent development and implementation of strategies of adaptation to, and mitigation of, negative consequences of climate change.

Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative

The Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI) was launched five years ago with the release of its Science Plan (http://neespi.org). Gradually, the Initiative was joined by numerous international projects and launched in the European Union, Russia, United States, Canada, Japan, and China. Currently, serving as an umbrella for more than 130 individual research projects (always with international participation) and with a

Quantifying black carbon deposition over the Greenland ice sheet from forest fires in Canada

15M annual budget, this highly diverse initiative is in full swing. Since the first NEESPI focus issue (Pavel Groisman et al 2007 Environ. Res. Lett. 2 045008 (1pp)) in December 2007, several NEESPI Workshops and Sessions at International Meetings have been held that strengthen the NEESPI grasp on biogeochemical cycle and cryosphere studies, climatic and hydrological modeling, and regional NEESPI components in the Arctic, non- boreal Eastern Europe, Central Asia, northern Siberia, and mountainous regions of the NEESPI domain. In May 2009, an overview NEESPI paper was published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS) (Pavel Groisman et al 2009 Bull. Am. Met. Soc. 90 671). This paper also formulated a requirement to the next generation of NEESPI studies to work towards attaining a higher level of integration of observation programs, process studies, and modeling, across disciplines. Three books devoted to studies in different regions of Northern Eurasia prepared by the members of the NEESPI team have appeared and/or are scheduled to appear in 2009. This (second) ERL focus issue dedicated to climatic and environmental studies in Northern Eurasia is composed mostly from the papers that were presented at two NEESPI Open Science Sessions at the Annual Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union (December 2008, San Francisco, CA) and at the General Assembly of the European Geosciences Union (April 2009, Vienna, Austria), as well as at the specialty NEESPI Workshops convened in Jena, Helsinki, Odessa, Urumqi, Krasnoyarsk, St Petersburg, and Bishkek during the past two years. As in the first NEESPI focus issue, papers that make up this second issue can be divided into five major topics: climate and hydrology; land cover and land use; the biogeochemical cycle and its feedbacks; cryosphere; human dimension. However, this partitioning is less rigid compared to the partitioning in the first Issue. Following the requirement of a higher level of integration outlined in the BAMS paper, many papers in this issue respond to two or even three of the topics listed above.

Development of the crop residue and rangeland burning in the 2014 National Emissions Inventory using information from multiple sources

Black carbon (BC) concentrations observed in 22 snowpits sampled in the northwest sector of the Greenland ice sheet in April 2014 have allowed us to identify a strong and widespread BC aerosol deposition event, which was dated to have accumulated in the pits from two snow storms between 27 July and 2 August 2013. This event comprises a significant portion (57% on average across all pits) of total BC deposition over 10 months (July 2013 to April 2014). Here we link this deposition event to forest fires burning in Canada during summer 2013 using modeling and remote sensing tools. Aerosols were detected by both the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (on board CALIPSO) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (Aqua) instruments during transport between Canada and Greenland. We use high-resolution regional chemical transport modeling (WRF-Chem) combined with high-resolution fire emissions (FINNv1.5) to study aerosol emissions, transport, and deposition during this event. The model captures the timing of the BC deposition event and shows that fires in Canada were the main source of deposited BC. However, the model underpredicts BC deposition compared to measurements at all sites by a factor of 2–100. Underprediction of modeled BC deposition originates from uncertainties in fire emissions and model treatment of wet removal of aerosols. Improvements in model descriptions of precipitation scavenging and emissions from wildfires are needed to correctly predict deposition, which is critical for determining the climate impacts of aerosols that originate from fires.

Northern Hemisphere high latitude climate and environmental change

ABSTRACT Biomass burning has been identified as an important contributor to the degradation of air quality because of its impact on ozone and particulate matter. One component of the biomass burning inventory, crop residue burning, has been poorly characterized in the National Emissions Inventory (NEI). In the 2011 NEI, wildland fires, prescribed fires, and crop residue burning collectively were the largest source of PM2.5. This paper summarizes our 2014 NEI method to estimate crop residue burning emissions and grass/pasture burning emissions using remote sensing data and field information and literature-based, crop-specific emission factors. We focus on both the postharvest and pre-harvest burning that takes place with bluegrass, corn, cotton, rice, soybeans, sugarcane and wheat. Estimates for 2014 indicate that over the continental United States (CONUS), crop residue burning excluding all areas identified as Pasture/Grass, Grassland Herbaceous, and Pasture/Hay occurred over approximately 1.5 million acres of land and produced 19,600 short tons of PM2.5. For areas identified as Pasture/Grass, Grassland Herbaceous, and Pasture/Hay, biomass burning emissions occurred over approximately 1.6 million acres of land and produced 30,000 short tons of PM2.5. This estimate compares with the 2011 NEI and 2008 NEI as follows: 2008: 49,650 short tons and 2011: 141,180 short tons. Note that in the previous two NEIs rangeland burning was not well defined and so the comparison is not exact. The remote sensing data also provided verification of our existing diurnal profile for crop residue burning emissions used in chemical transport modeling. In addition, the entire database used to estimate this sector of emissions is available on EPA’s Clearinghouse for Inventories and Emission Factors (CHIEF, http://www3.epa.gov/ttn/chief/index.html).Implications: Estimates of crop residue burning and rangeland burning emissions can be improved by using satellite detections. Local information is helpful in distinguishing crop residue and rangeland burning from all other types of fires.

Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI): facing the challenges and pathways of global change in the twenty-first century

High Northern Hemisphere latitudes are undergoing rapid and significant change associated with climate warming. Climatic change in this region interacts with and affects the rate of the global change through atmospheric circulation, biogeophysical, and biogeochemical feedbacks. Changes in the surface energy balance, hydrologic cycle, and carbon budget feedback to regional and global weather and climate systems. Two-thirds of the Northern Hemisphere high latitude land mass resides in Northern Eurasia (~20% of the global land mass), and this region has undergone sweeping socio-economic change throughout the 20th century. How this carbon-rich, cold region component of the Earth system functions as a regional entity and interacts with and feeds back to the greater global system is to a large extent unknown. To mitigate the deficiencies in understanding these feedbacks, which may in turn hamper our understanding of the global change rates and patterns, an initiative was formed. Three years ago the Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI) was established to address large-scale and long-term manifestations of climate and environmental change in this region. The NEESPI Science Plan and its Executive Summary have been published at the NEESPI web site (neespi.org). Since 2004, NEESPI participants have been able to seed several waves of research proposals to international and national funding agencies and institutions and also contribute to the International Polar Year. Currently, NEESPI is widely recognized and endorsed by several Earth System Science Partnership (ESSP) programmes and projects: the International Geosphere and Biosphere Programme, the World Climate Research Programme through the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment and Climate and Cryosphere Projects, the Global Water System Project, Global Carbon Project, Global Land Project, and the Integrated Land Ecosystem?Atmosphere Processes Study. Through NEESPI, more than 100 individually funded projects (always with international participation) in the United States, Russian Federation, China, European Union, Japan, and Canada have been mutually united to explore the scientifically significant Northern Eurasian region. NEESPI scientists have been quite productive during the past two years (2005?2006) publishing more than 200 books, book chapters, and papers in refereed journals. NEESPI sessions at international conferences are open to everyone who works on environmental and climate change problems in Northern Eurasia and the circumpolar boreal zone. This thematic issue brings together articles from the authors who presented their latest results at the Annual Fall American Geophysical Union Meeting in San Francisco (December 2006). The research letters in this issue are preceded by two editorial papers (Leptoukh et al and Sherstyukov et al) devoted to informational support of research in the NEESPI domain that is critical to the success of the Initiative. The following papers are quite diverse and are assembled into five groups devoted to studies of climate and hydrology, land cover and land use, the biogeochemical cycle and its feedbacks, the cryosphere, and human dimensions in the NEESPI domain and the circumpolar boreal zone. Focus on Northern Hemisphere High Latitude Climate and Environmental Change Contents Editorials NASA NEESPI Data and Services Center for Satellite Remote Sensing Information Gregory Leptoukh, Ivan Csiszar, Peter Romanov, Suhung Shen, Tatiana Loboda and Irina Gerasimov NEESPI Science and Data Support Center for Hydrometeorological Information in Obninsk, Russia B G Sherstyukov, V N Razuvaev, O N Bulygina and P Ya Groisman Climate and hydrology Changes in the fabric of the Arctics greenhouse blanket Jennifer A Francis and Elias Hunter Spatial variations of summer precipitation trends in South Korea, 1973?2005 Heejun Chang and Won-Tae Kwon Climate variations and changes in extreme climate events in Russia O N Bulygina, V N Razuvaev, N N Korshunova and P Ya Groisman Land cover and land use Responses of the circumpolar boreal forest to 20th century climate variability Andrea H Lloyd and Andrew G Bunn Mapping Russian forest biomass with data from satellites and forest inventories R A Houghton, D Butman, A G Bunn, O N Krankina, P Schlesinger and T A Stone The biogeochemical cycle and its feedbacks Sphagnum peatland development at their southern climatic range inWest Siberia: trends and peat accumulation patterns Anna Peregon, Masao Uchida and Yasuyuki Shibata Methane emissions from western Siberian wetlands: heterogeneity and sensitivity to climate change T J Bohn, D P Lettenmaier, K Sathulur, L C Bowling, E Podest, K C McDonald and T Friborg Ecosystem responses to recent climate change and fire disturbance at northern high latitudes: observations and model results contrasting northern Eurasia and North America S J Goetz, M C Mack, K R Gurney, J T Randerson and R A Houghton Ecosystems and climate interactions in the boreal zone of northern Eurasia N N Vygodskaya, P Ya Groisman, N M Tchebakova, J A Kurbatova, O Panfyorov, E I Parfenova and A F Sogachev The cryosphere Potential feedback of thawing permafrost to the global climate system through methane emission O A Anisimov Glacier changes in the Siberian Altai Mountains, Ob river basin, (1952?2006) estimated with high resolution imagery A B Surazakov, V B Aizen, E M Aizen and S A Nikitin Glaciers and hydrological changes in the Tien Shan: simulation and prediction V B Aizen, E M Aizen and V A Kuzmichonok Human dimensions Food and water security in a changing arctic climate Daniel M White, S Craig Gerlach, Philip Loring, Amy C Tidwell and Molly C Chambers