Amela Ajanovic

Driving on Renewables—On the Prospects of Alternative Fuels up to 2050 From an Energetic Point-of-View in European Union Countries

The core objective of this paper is to investigate the perspectives of “renewable fuels” mainly from an energetic point-of-view in a dynamic framework until 2050 in comparison to fossil fuels. In addition, the impact on the economic prospects of an improvement of the energetic performance is analyzed. As renewable fuels, various categories of first and second generation biofuels as well as electricity and hydrogen from renewable energy sources are considered. The most important results of this analysis are: (i) While for first generation biofuels, the relatively high share of fossil energy is the major problem, for second generation biofuels, the major problems are the low conversion efficiency and the corresponding high input of renewable feedstocks. Up to 2050, it is expected that these problems will be relieved, but only slightly. (ii) The energetic improvements up to 2050 will lead to substantial reduction of energetic losses in the well-to-tank as well as in the tank-to-wheel part of the energy service provision chain. (iii) By 2050, the total driving costs of all analyzed fuels and powertrains will almost even out. (iv) The major uncertainty for battery electric and fuel cell vehicles is how fast technological learning will take place especially for the battery and the fuel cells. [DOI: 10.1115/1.4023919]

Technological, ecological and economic perspectives for alternative automotive technologies up to 2050

Alternative fuels and corresponding alternative automotive technologies have been seen in recent years as major potential contributors to head towards a sustainable transport system. The core objective of this paper is to investigate the perspectives of different alternative automotive technologies in a dynamic framework till 2050 in comparison to fossil fuel driven conventional cars from a technical, ecological and economic point-of-view. The technologies considered in this paper are: conventional and hybrid internal combustion engine, compressed natural gas-, flex-fuel-, battery electric- and fuel cell-vehicles. The most important results and conclusions of this analysis are: (i) The energetic improvements up to 2050 will lead to substantial reduction of energetic losses mainly in Tank-to-Wheel part of the energy service provision chain; (ii) By 2050 the total driving costs of all analyzed fuels and powertrains could almost even out; (iii) The major uncertainty regarding battery electric- and fuel cell- vehicles is how fast technological learning will take place especially for the battery and the fuel cells.

Electric vehicles: solution or new problem?

Since electric vehicles (EVs) have been recognized as a technology that reduces local air pollution while improving transport energy security, they have been promoted in many countries. Yet, mainly due to their high costs, especially in the case of pure battery electric vehicles, and a lack of proper infrastructure, the use of EVs is still very limited. In this paper, some of the major barriers and the future challenges are discussed. The current problems are mainly attributed to two categories: (1) the battery performances and costs, as well as battery production including issue of material availability and (2) environmental benefits of EVs depending on the sources used for the electricity generation and their carbon intensity. The major conclusions are that (1) research and development with respect to batteries has by far the highest priority and (2) it has to be ensured that the electricity used in EVs is generated largely from renewable energy sources.

Economic prospects of advanced biomass-based energy carriers in EU-15 up to 2050

Biomass-based energy carriers (BBEC) especially advanced ones such as biofuels, hydrogen and electricity from biomass are often considered to have the potential to contribute to reduction of GHG emissions. In this paper we conduct an analysis of the economic prospects and potentials of advanced BBEC in EU-15 countries up to 2050. We show which energy output from these energy carriers can be expected in the future under different conditions. The major conclusion is that in the most promising scenario by 2050 energy carriers based on biomass can provide an overall additional energy quantity of about 4,650 PJ. This equals about 7% of total final energy consumption in EU-15 in 2010.

Hydrogen for Mobility: An Assessment from Economic, Energetic, and Ecological Point of View

In this chapter, the role of hydrogen as storage for surplus electricity from renewable energy sources (RES) and as a fuel for transport is discussed. The different energy supply chains based on the use of electricity from RES in passenger cars are analyzed. These analyses are conducted mainly from economic point of view but also energetic and ecological aspects are shortly addressed.

Wirtschaftliche Aspekte von Biokraftstoffen

Ziel des Beitrags von Ajanovic und Haas ist es, einen Vergleich der Wirtschaftlichkeit von Biokraftstoffen mit der von fossilen Kraftstoffen in Europa anzustellen. Dazu prasentieren sie einen methodischen Ansatz zur umfassenden Wirtschaftlichkeitsbewertung von Biokraftstoffen und wenden diesen exemplarisch auf die Bedingungen in Westeuropa, USA und Brasilien in den letzten Jahren an. Die Bewertungsanalysen werden fur Bioethanol und Biodiesel erster Generation durchgefuhrt. Basierend auf technologischem Lernen werden weiter die Perspektiven bis 2030 gezeigt und vergleichsweise die Kosten von Biodiesel und Bioethanol in Europa, USA und Brasilien fur 2010 und 2030 gegenubergestellt. Ein Ausblick auf die Zukunftsperspektiven von Biokraftstoffen zweiter Generation schliest das Kapitel ab.

An economic, ecological and energetic assessment of battery electric, hybrid and fuel cell cars

The core objective of this paper is to conduct an integrated assessment of battery electric (BEV), hybrid and fuel cell vehicles (FCV) from an ecological, energetic and economic point-of-view in a dynamic framework up to 2050 in comparison to conventional fossil fuel based cars. The major results and conclusions of this analysis are: From energetic as well as from ecological point-of-view BEV and FCV are currently clearly preferable to conventional cars. Yet, this applies only if the electricity respectively the hydrogen used in the cars is produced from renewable energy sources. With respect to the economic competitiveness of alternative powertrains compared to conventional vehicles in the most favorable case BEV will enter the market by about 2025. FCV will become competitive even later, by about 2040.

Economic Analysis of Production and Use of Hydrogen From Solar Energy, Wind, Hydropower and Biomass

In the vision of global hydrogen economy, hydrogen produced with renewable energy is seen as one of the cleanest final energy carriers.