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Dive into the research topics where Amie Adkin is active.

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Featured researches published by Amie Adkin.


Vector-borne and Zoonotic Diseases | 2012

Assessing the risks of West Nile virus-infected mosquitoes from transatlantic aircraft: implications for disease emergence in the United Kingdom.

Eleanor B.E. Brown; Amie Adkin; Anthony R. Fooks; Ben Stephenson; Jolyon M. Medlock; Emma Snary

The number of West Nile virus (WNV)-infected mosquitoes aboard aircraft from the United States that arrive in the United Kingdom each summer was determined using a quantitative risk assessment. In the worst-case scenario, when WNV levels in mosquitoes are high (at epidemic levels) the probability of at least one WNV-infected mosquito being introduced into the United Kingdom was predicted to be 0.99. During these periods, a mean of 5.2 infected mosquitoes were estimated to be aboard flights from the United States to the United Kingdom during May to October, with 90% certainty that the exact value lies between one and ten mosquitoes. Heathrow airport was predicted to receive the majority of the infected mosquitoes (72.1%). Spatial analysis revealed the region surrounding Heathrow satisfies the criteria for potential WNV exposure as both WNV-competent mosquitoes and susceptible wild bird species are present. This region is, therefore, recommended for targeted, risk-based surveillance of WNV-infected mosquitoes in addition to an increased awareness of the risks to horses, birds and humans.


Preventive Veterinary Medicine | 2010

Estimating the impact on the food chain of changing bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) control measures: the BSE control model.

Amie Adkin; V. Webster; M. E. Arnold; G. A. H. Wells; D. Matthews

The decline in the bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) epidemic in Great Britain (GB) demands a review of control strategies to ensure that they remain proportionate. Amongst controls that are subject to review are those intended to minimise the risk of BSE exposure of consumers through food. Such risk mitigation steps are costly, and the relative impact of each in terms of human exposure to BSE infectivity is not known. This risk assessment, termed the BSE Control Model, aims to estimate by use of stochastic simulation the impact of testing of cattle at slaughter and the removal of Specified Risk Materials (SRM) on potential BSE infectivity consumed. This paper describes the use of the model to investigate the effect of different risk management methods that have been or could be implemented between 2005 and 2010. Our results suggest that the amount of infectivity consumed in 2005 with the Over Thirty Month (OTM) rule in place was a mean of 0.03 bovine oral ID(50) (BO ID(50)). This is an extremely low amount, particularly considering that it would be spread over, on average, 236 infected carcases that would be further sub-divided into portions for human consumption. The highest contributor to the total amount of infectivity consumed per year is spinal contamination at carcase splitting (35%). In 2006 the OTM scheme was discontinued and head meat was again permitted into the food chain. These changes resulted in an increase in the amount of infectivity consumed, rising to an estimated 28 BO ID(50) in 2006, and 19 BO ID(50) in 2007. In 2008 the age at removal of vertebral column was raised from 24 to 30 months, and an estimated 24 BO ID(50) of infectivity was consumed. At the beginning of 2009 the age at testing of cattle was raised to 48 months for healthy slaughter, emergency slaughter and fallen stock. Under these conditions, an estimated mean of 24 BO ID(50) will be consumed in 2009, decreasing to 20 BO ID(50) in 2010. Even though presented in terms of bovine rather than human oral ID(50), such estimates represent an extremely low exposure of the British population. Considerable uncertainty would surround any attempt to try to convert such exposure into estimates of new cases of vCJD, but the most recent estimates of the size of the species barrier between cattle and humans (4000, EFSA, 2006) suggest that there would be few, if any, new cases of vCJD arising from such exposure levels.


Risk Analysis | 2013

A Quantitative Assessment of the Prion Risk Associated with Wastewater from Carcase-Handling Facilities

Amie Adkin; Neil Donaldson; Louise Anne Kelly

Wastewater from facilities processing livestock that may harbor transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs) infectivity is permitted under license for application to land where susceptible livestock may have access. Several previous risk assessments have investigated the risk of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) associated with wastewater effluents; however, the risk of exposure to classical scrapie and atypical scrapie has not been assessed. With the prevalence of certain TSEs (BSE in cattle and classical scrapie in sheep) steadily in decline, and with considerable changes in the structure of carcass-processing industries in Great Britain, a reappraisal of the TSE risk posed by wastewater is required. Our results indicate that the predicted number of new TSE infections arising from the spreading of wastewater on pasture over one year would be low, with a mean of one infection every 1,000 years for BSE in cattle (769, 555,556), and one infection every 30 years (16, 2,500), and 33 years (16, 3,333) for classical and atypical scrapie, respectively. It is assumed that the values and assumptions used in this risk assessment remain constant. For BSE in cattle the main contributors are abattoir and rendering effluent, contributing 35% and 22% of the total number of new BSE infections. For TSEs in sheep, effluent from small incinerators and rendering plants are the major contributors (on average 32% and 31% of the total number of new classical scrapie and atypical scrapie infections). This is a reflection of the volume of carcass material and Category 1 material flow through such facilities.


Veterinary Record | 2008

Predicting the impact of climate change on livestock disease in Great Britain.

P. Gale; Amie Adkin; Trevor W. Drew; M.. Wooldridge

THE recent emergence of bluetongue virus (btv) in Great Britain has highlighted the need for understanding of the broad implications of climate change on the prevalence and occurrence of diseases of livestock. This short communication describes the development of a qualitative risk assessment


Preventive Veterinary Medicine | 2016

Development of risk-based trading farm scoring system to assist with the control of bovine tuberculosis in cattle in England and Wales.

Amie Adkin; A. Brouwer; Robin Simons; Richard Piers Smith; Mark Arnold; Jennifer M. Broughan; R. Kosmider; S.H. Downs

Identifying and ranking cattle herds with a higher risk of being or becoming infected on known risk factors can help target farm biosecurity, surveillance schemes and reduce spread through animal trading. This paper describes a quantitative approach to develop risk scores, based on the probability of infection in a herd with bovine tuberculosis (bTB), to be used in a risk-based trading (RBT) scheme in England and Wales. To produce a practical scoring system the risk factors included need to be simple and quick to understand, sufficiently informative and derived from centralised national databases to enable verification and assess compliance. A logistic regression identified herd history of bTB, local bTB prevalence, herd size and movements of animals onto farms in batches from high risk areas as being significantly associated with the probability of bTB infection on farm. Risk factors were assigned points using the estimated odds ratios to weight them. The farm risk score was defined as the sum of these individual points yielding a range from 1 to 5 and was calculated for each cattle farm that was trading animals in England and Wales at the start of a year. Within 12 months, of those farms tested, 30.3% of score 5 farms had a breakdown (sensitivity). Of farms scoring 1-4 only 5.4% incurred a breakdown (1-specificity). The use of this risk scoring system within RBT has the potential to reduce infected cattle movements; however, there are cost implications in ensuring that the information underpinning any system is accurate and up to date.


Preventive Veterinary Medicine | 2016

Assessing the sensitivity of European surveillance for detecting BSE in cattle according to international standards

Amie Adkin; Robin Simons; Mark Arnold

European surveillance for Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE), initiated in 2001, has shown a steady exponential decline in the number of infected cattle, demonstrating that control measures have been effective. In 2016 23 European countries out of 28 demonstrated negligible risk status for the disease. The international standard setting body, the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE), prescribes that for countries where there is a non-negligible BSE risk, surveillance should allow the detection of one case per 100,000 in the adult cattle population with 95% confidence (Type A surveillance). The Cattle TSE Monitoring Model (C-TSEMM) was developed to estimate the sensitivity of surveillance systems to detect BSE in cattle. The model includes a cohort-based back calculation model to estimate the number and age of infected animals, the subset of those that are detectable by the diagnostic test, and the stream by which infected animals exit the standing population, that is, healthy slaughter, emergency slaughter, fallen stock and clinical suspects. Data collected by the European Commission (EC) and European Food Safety Authority (EFSA), containing the details of over 91 million cattle tested within the European Member States (EU25) surveillance scheme from 2002 to 2011, was used to populate the model. When considering the EU25 surveillance scheme as a single epidemiological unit, the model estimated that the surveillance scheme in place exceeded the OIE required threshold for Type A surveillance, and that a revised monitoring system excluding all healthy slaughter animals would also exceed this threshold. Results indicated a variation in individual country sensitivity of surveillance with seven countries (Germany, Spain, France, Ireland, Italy, Poland and the UK) exceeding the required threshold individually. Key assumptions included the fitting of an exponential distribution for all countries to describe the decline in prevalence over time and, for those members with no detected cases of BSE, an estimated area prevalence was used as a proxy. These results were part of the evidence base that lifted the testing requirement for healthy slaughter animals in European countries in 2013. The model has been maintained and updated by EFSA each year with the addition of new member states, and updated surveillance data.


Veterinary Record | 2008

Estimating the risk of exposure of British livestock to foot-and-mouth disease associated with the importation of ship and aircraft waste

Amie Adkin; T. England; S. Hall; H. Coburn; C. J. Marooney; M. Seaman; J. Cooper; E. Hartnett

A quantitative risk assessment model was developed to estimate the frequency with which meat waste from ships or aircraft might expose British livestock to infection with foot-and-mouth disease (fmd), and investigate the factors that might contribute to the risk. In the model, the total weight of waste introduced that was contaminated with fmd was estimated to be 26 kg per year, with 90 per cent certainty that it would be between 10 and 53 kg. As a result, it was estimated that there would be a mean of 1429 years between outbreaks of fmd due to ship and aircraft waste, with a 90 per cent certainty that the interval would be between 500 and 10,000 years. These estimates were affected by three principal uncertainties: first, the prevalence of fmd; secondly, the probability of the waste being removed and fed to pigs; and thirdly, the probability that overboard dumping of contaminated waste might expose livestock to fmd. The effect of these uncertainties on the model was investigated in a sensitivity analysis.


Preventive Veterinary Medicine | 2016

Assessing the impact of a cattle risk-based trading scheme on the movement of bovine tuberculosis infected animals in England and Wales.

Amie Adkin; A. Brouwer; S.H. Downs; Louise Anne Kelly

The adoption of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) risk-based trading (RBT) schemes has the potential to reduce the risk of bTB spread. However, any scheme will have cost implications that need to be balanced against its likely success in reducing bTB. This paper describes the first stochastic quantitative model assessing the impact of the implementation of a cattle risk-based trading scheme to inform policy makers and contribute to cost-benefit analyses. A risk assessment for England and Wales was developed to estimate the number of infected cattle traded using historic movement data recorded between July 2010 and June 2011. Three scenarios were implemented: cattle traded with no RBT scheme in place, voluntary provision of the score and a compulsory, statutory scheme applying a bTB risk score to each farm. For each scenario, changes in trade were estimated due to provision of the risk score to potential purchasers. An estimated mean of 3981 bTB infected animals were sold to purchasers with no RBT scheme in place in one year, with 90% confidence the true value was between 2775 and 5288. This result is dependent on the estimated between herd prevalence used in the risk assessment which is uncertain. With the voluntary provision of the risk score by farmers, on average, 17% of movements was affected (purchaser did not wish to buy once the risk score was available), with a reduction of 23% in infected animals being purchased initially. The compulsory provision of the risk score in a statutory scheme resulted in an estimated mean change to 26% of movements, with a reduction of 37% in infected animals being purchased initially, increasing to a 53% reduction in infected movements from higher risk sellers (score 4 and 5). The estimated mean reduction in infected animals being purchased could be improved to 45% given a 10% reduction in risky purchase behaviour by farmers which may be achieved through education programmes, or to an estimated mean of 49% if a rule was implemented preventing farmers from the purchase of animals of higher risk than their own herd. Given voluntary trials currently taking place of a trading scheme, recommendations for future work include the monitoring of initial uptake and changes in the purchase patterns of farmers. Such data could be used to update the risk assessment to reduce uncertainty associated with model estimates.


Risk Analysis | 2013

A quantitative assessment of the amount of prion diverted to Category 1 materials and wastewater during processing.

Amie Adkin; Neil Donaldson; Louise Anne Kelly

In this article the development and parameterization of a quantitative assessment is described that estimates the amount of TSE infectivity that is present in a whole animal carcass (bovine spongiform encephalopathy [BSE] for cattle and classical/atypical scrapie for sheep and lambs) and the amounts that subsequently fall to the floor during processing at facilities that handle specified risk material (SRM). BSE in cattle was found to contain the most oral doses, with a mean of 9864 BO ID50 s (310, 38840) in a whole carcass compared to a mean of 1851 OO ID50 s (600, 4070) and 614 OO ID50 s (155, 1509) for a sheep infected with classical and atypical scrapie, respectively. Lambs contained the least infectivity with a mean of 251 OO ID50 s (83, 548) for classical scrapie and 1 OO ID50 s (0.2, 2) for atypical scrapie. The highest amounts of infectivity falling to the floor and entering the drains from slaughtering a whole carcass at SRM facilities were found to be from cattle infected with BSE at rendering and large incineration facilities with 7.4 BO ID50 s (0.1, 29), intermediate plants and small incinerators with a mean of 4.5 BO ID50 s (0.1, 18), and collection centers, 3.6 BO ID50 s (0.1, 14). The lowest amounts entering drains are from lambs infected with classical and atypical scrapie at intermediate plants and atypical scrapie at collection centers with a mean of 3 × 10(-7) OO ID50 s (2 × 10(-8) , 1 × 10(-6) ) per carcass. The results of this model provide key inputs for the model in the companion paper published here.


Preventive Veterinary Medicine | 2012

The risk of introducing scrapie from restocking goats in Great Britain

Angel Ortiz-Pelaez; Louise Anne Kelly; Amie Adkin

The goat population in Great Britain (GB), which is mostly oriented to milk production, is small compared to that in other European Union (EU) countries and contributes a very small fraction of the total livestock production. The recent confirmation and cull of scrapie-affected goat herds has raised the concern that the risk of re-introducing scrapie by mass restocking after the cull of a scrapie-affected herd, may not have been fully considered at the time of implementing statutory eradication measures. A conditional probability model has been developed to estimate the probability of introducing at least one animal infected with classical scrapie into a British goat herd under two scenarios: restocking over one year under normal operating conditions (Scenario 1); and restocking post a whole herd cull as part of the compulsory eradication measures (Scenario 2). Several of the parameters were based on expert opinion, as there is a paucity of data regarding goat industry norms for all sectors. Considering all herds, of which 99% have less than 100 animals, the probability of introduction is approximately 2 times higher for Scenario (2) than for Scenario (1). The risk of subsequently re-introducing the disease through the introduction of replacement stock is not insignificant, although it can be considered very low for the vast majority of herds (>99%). In the case of very large herds (>1000 heads), mass restocking would almost certainly reintroduce the disease since it would require purchases from a very large number of herds.

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Mark Arnold

Animal and Plant Health Agency

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Robin Simons

Animal and Plant Health Agency

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M. E. Arnold

Veterinary Laboratories Agency

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Verity Horigan

Animal and Plant Health Agency

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Larry Paisley

National Veterinary Institute

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A. Brouwer

Animal and Plant Health Agency

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John Threlfall

Health Protection Agency

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