Amin Hosseinian-Far

Approximating non-Gaussian Bayesian networks using minimum information vine model with applications in financial modelling

Many financial modeling applications require to jointly model multiple uncertain quantities to present more accurate, near future probabilistic predictions. Informed decision making would certainly benefit from such predictions. Bayesian networks (BNs) and copulas are widely used for modeling numerous uncertain scenarios. Copulas, in particular, have attracted more interest due to their nice property of approximating the probability distribution of the data with heavy tail. Heavy tail data is frequently observed in financial applications. The standard multivariate copula suffer from serious limitations which made them unsuitable for modeling the financial data. An alternative copula model called the pair-copula construction (PCC) model is more flexible and efficient for modeling the complex dependence of financial data. The only restriction of PCC model is the challenge of selecting the best model structure. This issue can be tackled by capturing conditional independence using the Bayesian network PCC (BN-PCC). The flexible structure of this model can be derived from conditional independences statements learned from data. Additionally, the difficulty of computing conditional distributions in graphical models for non-Gaussian distributions can be eased using pair-copulas. In this paper, we extend this approach further using the minimum information vine model which results in a more flexible and efficient approach in understanding the complex dependence between multiple variables with heavy tail dependence and asymmetric features which appear widely in the financial applications.

Vulnerability considerations for power line communication's supervisory control and data acquisition

Due to the increasing importance of communication networking, the power line PL channel has been considered as a good candidate for the communication medium. Power line communications PLC term stands for the technologies for the data communication over the electrical power supply network. The PL channels were not designed to transmit high speed data; therefore, they exhibit hostile medium for communication signal transmission. There are many factors such as noises, attenuation, distance, etc. affecting the quality of the transmission over PL channels. This paper presents PL model in the first sections of the work. Then it covers the security assessment of the PL system in the supervisory control and data acquisition SCADA context.

Financial Assessment of London Plan Policy 4A.2 by Probabilistic Inference and Influence Diagrams

London Plan is the London mayor’s Spatial Development Strategy. This strategic long-term plan comprises of proposals for different aspects of change within the London boundary. Furthermore, the proposals include chapters outlining adjustments in each facet. Policy 4A.2 reflects the Climate Change Mitigation scheme. Some consultations and research works have been performed to this point, but an extensive cost assessment has not been done. This paper reflects a financial assessment by means of Influence Diagrams based upon the London Plan policies 4A.X.

Emerging Trends in Cloud Computing, Big Data, Fog Computing, IoT and Smart Living

Cloud computing has emerged to address the needs of businesses and to improve the quantity and quality of data that we can collect and analyse from multiple sources and devices. Cloud computing has also revolutionised the software paradigm by changing into a service-oriented paradigm where cloud resources and software are offered as a service. This service archetype has changed the way we have been thinking when producing a cloud service. This chapter provides an outline of the underpinning definition, principles and concepts which currently lack in the literature. This chapter will also outline the foundations of cloud computing and then endeavours to draft the emerging trends and evolution of cloud applications. The emerging trends will include new services, federations of cloud paradigm, smart cities, big data, IoT and mobile cloud.

Digital forensics education, training and awareness

Computer forensics is a field that developed from the introduction of new technologies which is readily accessible, affordable and heavily depended upon by both individuals and businesses. The speed in which these technologies have evolved brings both advantages and disadvantages to all. New criminal activity accompanied the development of technologies often referred to a cybercrime or e-crime presenting challenges to law enforcers. This chapter attempts to provide an unbiased perspective from the law enforcement arena, critically assessing the importance of proper education and training to handle, manage and investigate computer evidence and lastly the importance of having a form of accreditation to validate experience, skills, and qualifications.

Cybercrime classification and characteristics

Abstract Over the last two decades, businesses, consumers, and governments around the globe have moved into cyberspace and cloud environment in order to conduct their businesses. Many people spend a significant part of their daily life in cyberspace, creating and enjoying new types of social relationships which were not possible or financially affordable 20 years ago. However, criminals have identified rewards from online frauds therefore, the risks and threats have increased too. Securing the cyber space will be an enabler and will result in better use of the digital environment. Therefore, securing it requires a joint effort by all stakeholders which includes the law enforcement agencies, governments, the technology industries, and the individuals in the society.

A Probabilistic Knowledge-Based Information System for Environmental Policy Modeling and Decision Making

Decision making for setting new policies is a challenging process as the current policy making system is utterly flawed. A policy is introduced by the decision maker when the problem domain was fully consulted by experts in the field. Not always all the consultants and advisers agree on details or even basics of such a course of action. The need for an intelligent predictive system is emerging. Policy making on environmental issues are even shoddier as the environmental systems are habitually complex, and adaptive; and introduction of new technologies can easily affect the guiding strategies already taken. This paper outlines the principles of Knowledge Management Systems. It then reflects on Influence Diagrams’ suitability for construction of such an information system through the use of the London Plan case study. An application of such a system is outlined by means of a probabilistic knowledge based IS which is developed by Influence Diagrams and can be utilized as an Environmental policy modeler and/or DSS.

Sustainable Maintenance Strategy Under Uncertainty in the Lifetime Distribution of Deteriorating Assets

In the life-cycle management of systems under continuous deterioration, studying the sensitivity analysis of the optimised preventive maintenance decisions with respect to the changes in the model parameters is of a great importance. Since the calculations of the mean cost rates considered in the preventive maintenance policies are not sufficiently robust, the corresponding maintenance model can generate outcomes that are not robust and this would subsequently require interventions that are costly. This chapter presents a computationally efficient decision-theoretic sensitivity analysis for a maintenance optimisation problem for systems/structures/assets subject to measurable deterioration using the Partial Expected Value of Perfect Information (PEVPI) concept. Furthermore, this sensitivity analysis approach provides a framework to quantify the benefits of the proposed maintenance/replacement strategies or inspection schedules in terms of their expected costs and in light of accumulated information about the model parameters and aspects of the system, such as the ageing process. In this paper, we consider random variable model and stochastic Gamma process model as two well-known probabilistic models to present the uncertainty associated with the asset deterioration. We illustrate the use of PEVPI to perform sensitivity analysis on a maintenance optimisation problem by using two standard preventive maintenance policies, namely age-based and condition-based maintenance policies. The optimal strategy of the former policy is the time of replacement or repair and the optimal strategies of the later policy are the inspection time and the preventive maintenance ratio. These optimal strategies are determined by minimising the corresponding expected cost rates for the given deterioration models’ parameters, total cost and replacement or repair cost. The robust optimised strategies to the changes of the models’ parameters can be determined by evaluating PEVPI’s which involves the computation of multi-dimensional integrals and is often computationally demanding, and conventional numerical integration or Monte Carlo simulation techniques would not be helpful. To overcome this computational difficulty, we approximate the PEVPI using Gaussian process emulators.

Security and Feasibility of Power Line Communication System

Power Line Communication (PLC) has the potential to become the preferred connectivity technique for providing broadband to homes and offices with advantage of eliminating the need for new wiring infrastructure and reducing the cost. The PLC channel, its characterization, standardization and applications has been well studied. However, the security of PLC has not been investigated sufficiently, and such assessments are required for prospective implementation of successful PLC communication systems. Since PLC uses power line as the medium, it has similar characteristics with wireless communications from the security perspective. This paper provides discussion of security issues and feasibility for PLC networks. The authentication and cryptographic scheme used in PLC standard is also discussed.

Global Security, Safety and Sustainability: Tomorrow's Challenges of Cyber Security

This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 10th International Conference on Global Security, Safety and Sustainability, ICGS3 2015, held in London, UK, in September 2015. The 31 revised full papers presented were carefully reviewed and selected from 57 submissions. The papers focus on the challenges of complexity, rapid pace of change and risk/opportunity issues associated with the 21st century living style, systems and infrastructures.