Amnon Bar-Ilan

Ozone impacts of natural gas development in the Haynesville Shale.

The Haynesville Shale is a subsurface rock formation located beneath the Northeast Texas/Northwest Louisiana border near Shreveport. This formation is estimated to contain very large recoverable reserves of natural gas, and during the two years since the drilling of the first highly productive wells in 2008, has been the focus of intensive leasing and exploration activity. The development of natural gas resources within the Haynesville Shale is likely to be economically important but may also generate significant emissions of ozone precursors. Using well production data from state regulatory agencies and a review of the available literature, projections of future year Haynesville Shale natural gas production were derived for 2009-2020 for three scenarios corresponding to limited, moderate, and aggressive development. These production estimates were then used to develop an emission inventory for each of the three scenarios. Photochemical modeling of the year 2012 showed increases in 2012 8-h ozone design values of up to 5 ppb within Northeast Texas and Northwest Louisiana resulting from development in the Haynesville Shale. Ozone increases due to Haynesville Shale emissions can affect regions outside Northeast Texas and Northwest Louisiana due to ozone transport. This study evaluates only near-term ozone impacts, but the emission inventory projections indicate that Haynesville emissions may be expected to increase through 2020.