Ana Bastos

European land CO2 sink influenced by NAO and East-Atlantic Pattern coupling

Large-scale climate patterns control variability in the global carbon sink. In Europe, the North-Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) influences vegetation activity, however the East-Atlantic (EA) pattern is known to modulate NAO strength and location. Using observation-driven and modelled data sets, we show that multi-annual variability patterns of European Net Biome Productivity (NBP) are linked to anomalies in heat and water transport controlled by the NAO–EA interplay. Enhanced NBP occurs when NAO and EA are both in negative phase, associated with cool summers with wet soils which enhance photosynthesis. During anti-phase periods, NBP is reduced through distinct impacts of climate anomalies in photosynthesis and respiration. The predominance of anti-phase years in the early 2000s may explain the European-wide reduction of carbon uptake during this period, reported in previous studies. Results show that improving the capability of simulating atmospheric circulation patterns may better constrain regional carbon sink variability in coupled carbon-climate models.

Discrete wavelet analysis of the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on Baltic Sea level

ABSTRACT Mean sea level (MSL) in the Baltic Sea is influenced by several factors and therefore presents a complex behaviour over a wide range of time-scales. This work performs a multi-scale analysis of MSL variability in the Baltic Sea using discrete wavelet analysis. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is well known for having a strong influence in MSL variability over the Baltic; however, the relationship between MSL and NAO at different time-scales is still little understood. In this work a comparison of MSL and NAO variability is performed for a wide range of temporal scales, uncovering distinct relationships in high-frequency and long-term temporal variability. The annual and sub-annual scales are found to account for more than 50% of the total MSL variability. The MSL annual cycle is analysed and a shift from low to high amplitude values is identified in the 1970s for most stations. MSL is found to be anti-correlated to NAO at short time-scales while on the long-term NAO and MSL appear to be positively correlated for most stations. The physical mechanisms behind these distinct relationships deserve deeper study.

The effects of teleconnections on carbon fluxes of global terrestrial ecosystems

Large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns (i.e., teleconnections) influence global climate variability patterns and can be studied to provide a simple framework for relating the complex response of ecosystems to climate. This study analyzes the effects of 15 major teleconnections on terrestrial ecosystem carbon fluxes during 1951–2012 using an ensemble of nine dynamic global vegetation models. We map the global pattern of the dominant teleconnections and find that these teleconnections significantly affect gross primary productivity variations over more than 82.1% of the global vegetated area, through mediating the global temperature and regional precipitation and cloud cover. The El Nino–Southern Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation are strongly correlated with global, hemispherical, and continental carbon fluxes and climatic variables, while the Northern Hemisphere teleconnections have only regional influences. Further research regarding the interactions among the teleconnections and the nonstationarity of the relationship between teleconnections and carbon fluxes is needed.

Future Projections of Fire Occurrence in Brazil Using EC-Earth Climate Model

Fire has a fundamental role in the Earth system as it influences global and local ecosystem patterns and processes, such as vegetation distribution and structure, the carbon cycle and climate. Since, in the global context, Brazil is one of the regions with higher fire activity, an assessment is here performed of the sensitivity of the wildfire regime in Brazilian savanna and shrubland areas to changes in regional climate during the 21st Century, for an intermediate scenario (RCP4.5) of climate change. The assessment is based on a spatial and temporal analysis of a meteorological fire danger index specifically developed for Brazilian biomes, which was evaluated based on regional climate simulations of temperature, relative humidity and precipitation using the Rossby Centre Regional Climate Model (RCA4) forced by the EC-Earth earth system model. Results show a systematic increase in the extreme levels of fire danger throughout the 21st Century that mainly results from the increase in maximum daily temperature, which rises by about 2 °C between 2005 and 2100. This study provides new insights about projected fire activity in Brazilian woody savannas associated to climate change and is expected to benefit the user community, from governmental policies to land management and climate researches.

The Accelerating Land Carbon Sink of the 2000s May Not Be Driven Predominantly by the Warming Hiatus

Recent studies attributed the accelerating land carbon sink (S-LAND) during the 2000s to respiration decrease induced by the warming hiatus. We used two long-term atmospheric inversions, three temperature data sets, and eight ecosystem models to test this attribution. Our results show that the changes in seasonal S-LAND trend between the warming (1982-1998) and hiatus (1998-2014) periods do not track evidently the changes in seasonal temperature trends at both global and regional scales. A conceptual model of the annual/seasonal temperature response of respiration suggests that changes in seasonal temperature during this period are unlikely to cause a significant decrease in annual respiration. The ecosystem models suggest that trends in both gross primary production and terrestrial ecosystem respiration slowed down slightly, but the resulting slight acceleration in net ecosystem productivity is insufficient to explain the increasing trend in S-LAND. Instead, the roles of alternative drivers on the accelerating S-LAND seem to be important.

Impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño on the terrestrial carbon cycle constrained by bottom-up and top-down approaches

Evaluating the response of the land carbon sink to the anomalies in temperature and drought imposed by El Niño events provides insights into the present-day carbon cycle and its climate-driven variability. It is also a necessary step to build confidence in terrestrial ecosystems models response to the warming and drying stresses expected in the future over many continents, and particularly in the tropics. Here we present an in-depth analysis of the response of the terrestrial carbon cycle to the 2015/2016 El Niño that imposed extreme warming and dry conditions in the tropics and other sensitive regions. First, we provide a synthesis of the spatio-temporal evolution of anomalies in net land–atmosphere CO2 fluxes estimated by two in situ measurements based on atmospheric inversions and 16 land-surface models (LSMs) from TRENDYv6. Simulated changes in ecosystem productivity, decomposition rates and fire emissions are also investigated. Inversions and LSMs generally agree on the decrease and subsequent recovery of the land sink in response to the onset, peak and demise of El Niño conditions and point to the decreased strength of the land carbon sink: by 0.4–0.7 PgC yr−1 (inversions) and by 1.0 PgC yr−1 (LSMs) during 2015/2016. LSM simulations indicate that a decrease in productivity, rather than increase in respiration, dominated the net biome productivity anomalies in response to ENSO throughout the tropics, mainly associated with prolonged drought conditions. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘The impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño on the terrestrial tropical carbon cycle: patterns, mechanisms and implications’.

Lower land-use emissions responsible for increased net land carbon sink during the slow warming period

The terrestrial carbon sink accelerated during 1998–2012, concurrently with the slow warming period, but the mechanisms behind this acceleration are unclear. Here we analyse recent changes in the net land carbon sink (NLS) and its driving factors, using atmospheric inversions and terrestrial carbon models. We show that the linear trend of NLS during 1998–2012 is about 0.17u2009±u20090.05 Pg C yr−2 , which is three times larger than during 1980–1998 (0.05u2009±u20090.05 Pg C yr−2). According to terrestrial carbon model simulations, the intensification of the NLS cannot be explained by CO2 fertilization or climate change alone. We therefore use a bookkeeping model to explore the contribution of changes in land-use emissions and find that decreasing land-use emissions are the dominant cause of the intensification of the NLS during the slow warming period. This reduction of land-use emissions is due to both decreased tropical forest area loss and increased afforestation in northern temperate regions. The estimate based on atmospheric inversions shows consistently reduced land-use emissions, whereas another bookkeeping model did not reproduce such changes, probably owing to missing the signal of reduced tropical deforestation. These results highlight the importance of better constraining emissions from land-use change to understand recent trends in land carbon sinks.Accelerated storage of terrestrial carbon during the slow warming period (1998–2012) can be predominantly attributed to lower land-use emissions due to decreased tropical forest loss and increased afforestation in the northern temperate regions.

Precipitation thresholds regulate net carbon exchange at the continental scale

Understanding the sensitivity of ecosystem production and respiration to climate change is critical for predicting terrestrial carbon dynamics. Here we show that the primary control on the inter-annual variability of net ecosystem carbon exchange switches from production to respiration at a precipitation threshold between 750 and 950u2009mmu2009yr−1 in the contiguous United States. This precipitation threshold is evident across multiple datasets and scales of observation indicating that it is a robust result and provides a new scaling relationship between climate and carbon dynamics. However, this empirical precipitation threshold is not captured by dynamic global vegetation models, which tend to overestimate the sensitivity of production and underestimate the sensitivity of respiration to water availability in more mesic regions. Our results suggest that the short-term carbon balance of ecosystems may be more sensitive to respiration losses than previously thought and that model simulations may underestimate the positive carbon–climate feedbacks associated with respiration.The sensitivity of terrestrial net ecosystem carbon exchange (NEE) to climate remains a major source of uncertainty. Here, the authors identify a precipitation threshold of between 750-950u2009mm yr−1 for the contiguous United States, beyond which NEE is regulated by respiration rather than production.

Land-use emissions play a critical role in land-based mitigation for Paris climate targets

Scenarios that limit global warming to below 2u2009°C by 2100 assume significant land-use change to support large-scale carbon dioxide (CO2) removal from the atmosphere by afforestation/reforestation, avoided deforestation, and Biomass Energy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS). The more ambitious mitigation scenarios require even greater land area for mitigation and/or earlier adoption of CO2 removal strategies. Here we show that additional land-use change to meet a 1.5u2009°C climate change target could result in net losses of carbon from the land. The effectiveness of BECCS strongly depends on several assumptions related to the choice of biomass, the fate of initial above ground biomass, and the fossil-fuel emissions offset in the energy system. Depending on these factors, carbon removed from the atmosphere through BECCS could easily be offset by losses due to land-use change. If BECCS involves replacing high-carbon content ecosystems with crops, then forest-based mitigation could be more efficient for atmospheric CO2 removal than BECCS.Land-based mitigation for meeting the Paris climate target must consider the carbon cycle impacts of land-use change. Here the authors show that when bioenergy crops replace high carbon content ecosystems, forest-based mitigation could be more effective for CO2 removal than bioenergy crops with carbon capture and storage.

Recent Changes in Global Photosynthesis and Terrestrial Ecosystem Respiration Constrained From Multiple Observations

©2018. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. To assess global carbon cycle variability, we decompose the net land carbon sink into the sum of gross primary productivity (GPP), terrestrial ecosystem respiration (TER), and fire emissions and apply a Bayesian framework to constrain these fluxes between 1980 and 2014. The constrained GPP and TER fluxes show an increasing trend of only half of the prior trend simulated by models. From the optimization, we infer that TER increased in parallel with GPP from 1980 to 1990, but then stalled during the cooler periods, in 1990–1994 coincident with the Pinatubo eruption, and during the recent warming hiatus period. After each of these TER stalling periods, TER is found to increase faster than GPP, explaining a relative reduction of the net land sink. These results shed light on decadal variations of GPP and TER and suggest that they exhibit different responses to temperature anomalies over the last 35xa0years.