Ana Carla dos Santos Gomes

Dynamic Regression Model for Evaluating the Association Between Atmospheric Conditions and Deaths due to Respiratory Diseases in São Paulo, Brazil

The article reports the modeling of mortality due to respiratory diseases emanating from atmospheric conditions, capturing significant associations and verifying the ability of stochastic modeling to predict deaths arising from the relationship between weather conditions and air pollution. The statistical methods used in the analysis were cross-correlation and pre-whitening, in addition to dynamic regression modeling combining the dynamics of time series and the effect of explanatory variables. The results show there are significant associations between mortality and sulfur dioxide, air temperature, atmospheric pressure, relative humidity, and autoregressive structure. The cross-correlations captured significant lags between atmospheric variables and deaths, of two months for SO2 and relative humidity, eleven months for PM10, seven months for O3, and eight months for air temperature and the cross-correlation without lag with NO2. With CO variables, precipitation and atmospheric pressure, cross-correlations were not detected. Stochastic modeling showed that deaths due to respiratory diseases can be predicted from the combination of meteorological and air pollution variables, especially considering the existing trend and seasonality.

WIND AVERAGES FEATURES ABOVE AND BELOW OF THE FOREST CANOPY DURING GOAMAZON IN AN EXPERIMENTAL SITE IN THE AMAZON

The aim of this study was to evaluate the temporal evolution of average characteristics of the vertical profiles of speed and direction above and within of the forest canopy at the Cuieiras experimental site, located about 100 km from the Manaus, Amazonas state, Brazil. We used about 10 months of half-hourly averaged data from 10 sonic anemometers installed at different levels above and within the forest canopy during GoAmazon project in 2014. We found that the vertical wind speed profile varied with the various layers above and below the forest canopy, describing an S-shape type, a form determined by physical obstructions imposed by vertical heterogeneity of the canopy. The predominant wind directions were not constant with height, suggesting that very local circulations can influence the subcanopy flow.

Índices micrometeorológicos e internações de crianças por doenças respiratórias em Santarém, Oeste do Pará.

The aim of this study was to attract associations between hospitalizations for respiratory diseases and micrometeorological index in the Santarem city, located in the West Para region in the year 2010. It was used numbers of children hospitalizations with 0-4 years old and weather data variables (relative humidity, air temperature, precipitation, atmospheric pressure). Was calculated the Micrometeorological index, through principal component analysis, were each principal component is a linear combination of all the original variables, independent of each other and estimated in proposal to retain the maximum total variation information contained in the data; To detect the association we used generalized estimating equations that are used when you want to fit models for longitudinal data. The results suggest that the greatest number of admissions occurred in June coinciding with the transition period between the rainy and dry seasons. Statistically significant associations were observed, noting that the relative risk of 10% was captured for the increase in hospitalizations due to synergy of meteorological variables. This is expected to assist in the planning of public policies and environmental health.

EDDY COVARIANCE MEASUREMENTS OF LATENT HEAT, SENSIBLE HEAT, MOMENTUM AND CO2 FLUXES ON THE RESERVOIR OF THE HYDROELECTRIC PLANT CURUÁ-UNA – PA

Flux measurements of latent heat, sensible heat, momentum, and CO2 were performed from 15 to 26 June 2015 on the reservoir of the hydroelectric plant Curua-Una (PA). The flux system is located upstream of the main channel of the reservoir and installed at 3 m above the water surface on a floating structure. The hydroelectric plant Curua-Una was the first plant built in the Amazonia and it is in operation for almost 40 years. During installation, the vegetation around the river channel was not removed, which led to large emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. The wind speed was important to maintain turbulent mixing mechanically. Latent heat flux showed significant correlation with the wind velocity (r = 82%). As a result of the combined effect of turbulent mixing generated thermally and mechanically, the latent and sensible heat fluxes were positive throughout the investigation period and the atmospheric surface layer remained unstable. The CO2 flow was predominantly negative (84%), characterizing the reservoir as a CO2 sink.

MONTHLY HYDRIC BALANCE FOR TWO MUNICIPALITIES OF PARAÍBA STATE

This research aimed to analyze the monthly behavior of the Water Balance Climatological (WBC) in two different cities of Paraíba (PB): one in the city of Alhandra, located on the seafront of the PB state and the other located in the municipality of Prata. The methodology used for calculating the WBC was proposed by Thornthwaite and Matter (1957) with modifications Krishnan (1980). The results showed that the rainy season is concentrated in the months (May-July) in Alhanbra and Prata municipality in months (February to April) corresponding to about 50% of the annual total. Regarding the WBC, the results showed limitations of water resources, especially in the municipality of Prata. It was found that this city had nine months of drought. Thus affecting adversely the development of crops. Thus indicating that the Silver municipality will be insufficient to meet the basic needs of the soil, vegetation and society. Key-words: Variability, drought, water resources, water demand.